Q3 2022 Market Trends

Market Trends

Triangle & Triad Real estate insights

Housing Recession?

Written by Rick Gregory

The labels used in today’s headlines to describe the residential real estate market are often a topic of discussion among us who work in the industry As we decipher through the data we come up with an undeniably different opinion based on historical trends and real life experience. But headlines aside, perspective and context are two filters we find incredibly helpful for our current and future clients to understand what is happening in residential real estate so they can make the best decisions for themselves and those important in their lives.

On October 20th, Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors®, shared some fascinating national statistics Through the end of September, sales of single family homes/condos/townhouses retracted 1.5% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million sales. That’s down 23.8% from the seasonally forecasted annual sales one (1) year ago The main culprits for the decline, he surmised, were increasing mortgage rates and further decline in available housing inventory. In fact, available inventory declined 2.3% from August’s inventory level and down 0 8% from September of last year

Market Predictions

And with these declines in inventory there was a corresponding increase in median home sale prices, even with increased mortgage rates. The national median existing-home sale price for all housing types in September was $384,000 which is an increase of 8.4% from September 2021. This latest median home sales price increase marks 127 consecutive months of year over year increases and represents the longest running streak of home price increases on record.

And what about closer to home? The statistics Dr. Yun shared break the United States into 4 regions. The Northeast declined 18.7% in existing home sales from one year ago while home prices increased 8.3% during that same period. In the Midwest and West, existing home sales slid 19.7% and 31.3% respectively while their home prices grew 6.9% and 7.1% from one year ago The South also had its share of changes with a decline of 23.8% from September a year ago while median home sales prices of existing homes had the greatest increase of 11 8%

Back to the Future

at least 2019

In our Triangle and Triad markets, the national themes described above about declining total home sales and evolving home sales prices ring true. But our trajectory is a bit different and a comparison to prepandemic data points is important

The Triangle had its best overall year (thus far) in 2021. In September of 2021 there were a total of 3,983 closed residential real estate sales and through the first 9 months of 2021, the total closed sales were 35,458. Our 2022 number of closed sales in September decreased 13% to 3,452 while our year to date number of closed sales dropped 8 5% in 2022 to 32,622. And while being down is never exciting, in 2019 a year that until 2020 and 2021 was deemed a great year our total sales in September were 3,286 and YTD sales were 31,532.

Or said more plainly 2022 has been better thus far than 2019 in total residential home sales

Same is true for Triad. September closed sales for 2022 is lower than September 2021 by 10.5% (2,405 vs 2,687) but better than September 2019 when the total number of closed residential sales was 2,215. And year to date through the end of September, in 2019 we had 19,684 closed residential sales in the Triad while 2021 was 22,187 and interesting 2022 has been 23,122

Home sales prices is another area where context is helpful to see what’s happening. In September, the average sales price in the Triangle was $455,299. That average sales price was $400,438 in 2021 and only $311,187 in 2019. The change in average sales price over the past 3 years has grown a whopping 46%! The Triad has had nearly the same degree of average home sale price increases. In September it was $281,824 but in 2021 it was $251,950 and in 2019 it was (only) $191,997 That’s a 46 7% increase!

Market Impact

what impact does this have on the market?

What impact does this have on the market? Time will tell but in the short term we are seeing far fewer multiple offers on homes, open houses are back in vogue, and the market has begun to normalize in many ways to the residential real estate process that both buyers and sellers better understand.

As I mentioned in the prior market report, a home decision is very personal to both the buyer and seller. Home prices have been on the rise when compared year over year but this has recently been changing. And while the rate of increase has decreased, a home has proven to still be a very good decision for many people Just look at the above 2019 numbers for reference.

As mortgage interest rates continue to move (nearly 7% for a 30 year fixed rate conventional loan as of this writing) we cannot predict nor speculate what will happen to average home sales prices. But we do know that, traditionally, mortgage rates that rise ultimately lower. So please consider speaking with a mortgage professional prior to buying your next home to understand all your options for both today and tomorrow

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If you would like to see how your specific town, neighborhood and home are performing today, or if you are wanting to plan a strategy for your future home sale or purchase please contact your Coldwell Banker Advantage real estate agent and ask about a Real Estate Review. If you are unfamiliar with any of our agents, go to www.cbadvantage.com/offices to find the agent most convenient to you.

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Coldwell Banker Advantage agents are the most knowledgeable in the Triad and Triangle markets The unparalleled training and support they receive from CBA make them the most suitable to navigate you in your real estate endeavors. Find a CBA agent in your area at CBAdvantage.com/Offices

little about us...

This article was written by Rick Gregory, President & Partner at Coldwell Banker Advantage

Coldwell Banker Advantage is part of the Coldwell Banker Advantage family of companies with approximately 1900 agents, 57 offices, throughout the Triangle, Triad, Lake Gaston, Kerr Lake, Fayetteville and Southern Pines & Pinehurst, Wilmington, New Bern and Myrtle Beach marketplaces The Coldwell Banker Advantage family of companies served approximately 24,000 clients representing more than $7 Billion in residential real estate sales in 2021.

President & Partner

Rick Gregory

Coldwell Banker