Photo: IDF Spokesperson Photo: AP
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz with the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey
Halamish for a year. Instead of inaugurating a new plan, it was decided that 2012 would be a “singular year,” and its budget would not come from any multi-year program. As the summer of 2012 approaches, the time is ripe for renewed discussion in the General Staff for Halamish. While issues relating to force buildup are discussed behind closed doors, the defense establishment and the political echelon are once again raising
the specter of taking calculated risks in light of security threats. The IDF is accustomed to building its forces based on a reference scenario, rather than a worst-case scenario, in which all fronts erupt simultaneously. Will this modus operandi prove to be a fatal mistake?
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Much less: Israel’s ability to procure the latest weapons systems would be much more limited were it not for the
Khairat Al-Shatr, Muslim Brotherhood candidate for Egypt’s presidential elections
Photo: AP
enormous volume of defense exports. While the final figures have yet to be published, indications show a decline of almost 20% compared to 2010. Cutbacks in Western defense budgets have been detrimental for Israel’s industries. Nevertheless, Israel’s defense exports are currently three times higher than those from a decade ago (close to $7 billion in 2011). The defense industries’ order backlog is nothing but amazing: Israel Aerospace Industries has a backlog of over $10 billion; Elbit Systems has a backlog of $5.5 billion; and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems has a backlog of $2 billion. At this rate, the current level of success will continue for another two to three years, with this year’s sales affecting the defense industries’ performance for 2014 and 2015. The question of whether the defense industries will have to cut back on output brings to mind a high school calculus conundrum: if the rate of sales over the next two years is lower than the rate of catching up with the order backlog, then Israel’s defense industries will have to lay off personnel; if sales remain at the current level, the industries will be able to maintain their current status.
MAY 2012
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