Future Employment Opportunities in the Rainer Valley

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY An analysis of strategies to promote job growth in southeast Seattle

June 7, 2013 Erin GENGO

Elena HERNANDEZ

Aaron LYKKEN Lauren MATHISENin the Catherine SILVA 1 Future Employment Opportunities RAINIER VALLEY

Table of CONTENTS Introduction

Planned Mobility

3

Sound Transit Background

3

Urban Growth Centers

4

Expanding Link to Access Jobs and Education Transit Ridership and Funding

3 4

SeaTac Regional Growth Center Seattle Central Business District Capitol Hill The University Community

5 6 6 6

Concentration of Industries: Competitive Advantages, Opportunities & Challenges

Location quotient analysis Shift Share Analysis

Educational Attainment & Access Early Learning K-­‐12 Education

Quality of Education Educational Attainment

Postsecondary Education Conclusion

Appendix

7

7 8

10

10 11 12

13 14

15

15 16

Existing Conditions & Future Directions

98108 -­‐ Beacon Hill and Georgetown 98118 -­‐ Columbia City

98144 -­‐ Mt. Baker & Leschi

Overall Trends Conclusion

Shift Share for King County -­‐ Selected Results

Rainier Valley-­‐ Selected Results

2

8

16 18

18 20

21

22

22 23 33 35 35

Appendix A: Planned Mobility -­‐ Data and Maps

Appendix B: Concentration of Industries -­‐ Data and Maps Appendix C: Educational Attainment and Access – Maps Appendix D: Opportunity Mapping

Appendix E: Presentation on Rainier Valley Opportunities

INTRODUCTION

LINK light rail has presented new opportunities for an area of Seattle once isolated from the metropolitan region’s key employment centers. The light rail now connects southeast Seattle to both the central business district of downtown Seattle and the Seattle-­‐Tacoma International Airport, with plans to connect to the University of Washington within the next several years. This transportation investment in a low-­‐income and disinvested region of Seattle reflects a potential turning point for the neighborhood as community members gain access to living-­‐wage jobs and quality education.

In addition to providing details about the strategic planning and history behind these transportation investments, this research paper explores what this new level of access means for the future employment of Rainier Valley residents. This includes a written analysis of current challenges and opportunities for future investment in industry and education that would broaden the impact of transportation oriented development in the region. The appendix includes further analysis including opportunity maps and charts visualizing many of the findings detailed throughout the report.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 2

Planned MOBILITY

Sound Transit Background On November 5, 1996, voters approved local funding for Sound Move. Sound Move included plans for the Sound Transit (ST) Express bus network along with high occupancy-­‐vehicle lane access improvements, Sound commuter rail and Link light rail1. Subsequently, on Nov. 4, 2008, voters approved a Sound Transit 2 (ST2) ballot measure that expanded regional express bus and commuter rail service over 15-­‐years while building 36 additional miles of light rail to form a 55-­‐mile regional system2.

Sound Transit offers 3 modes of transportation, ST Express bus service, peak-­‐hour Sounder commuter rail, as well as the link light-­‐rail services – Tacoma link and Central link3.

Link light rail is an electrically powered service that adds a new system of high-­‐capacity transportation within the region’s highest employment and transit ridership areas. Central Link light rail (Link) currently operates from Westlake Station in Downtown Seattle to Sea-­‐Tac Airport in the City of SeaTac, connecting citizens near the stations to major job centers, sports, entertainment, museums, theaters, and shopping. An end-­‐to-­‐end trip on the current Link system takes approximately 38 minutes.4 Central Link is based on a base fare plus distance.

Sound Transit is the regional transit authority (RTA) and is supported by taxpayer dollars. The agency’s taxing district boundaries comprise the urban areas of King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties.5 Residents of this district pay the RTA tax, which is currently comprised of 0.9% of sales tax and 0.3% from the vehicle excise tax.6 The construction and operation of Sound Transit facilities and services are paid for through funds from the RTA tax, grant money, or partnerships with other government agencies.

Expanding Link to Access Jobs and Education More than 70 percent of Sound Transit District residents and more than 85 percent of district employees are estimated to have convenient access to the region’s Link rail system in 2030.7 Presently the system provides Rainier Valley residents direct access to significant employment centers as Seattle’s central business district, the Washington State Convention Center, Sea-­‐Tac airport, and the stadium and industrial activity of South of Downtown (SODO).

In 2016, Central Link will be expanded with the opening of the University Link, adding 3.15 miles and 2 stations (Capitol Hill and University of Washington stations) to the regional system. The stations will be a 1

Regional Transit History 1996. (n.d.). Retrieved 7-­‐18, 2012 from Sound Transit: Regional Transit History 1996. Sound Transit website. Retrieved from http://www.soundtransit.org/Projects-­‐and-­‐Plans/System-­‐planning/1996.xml 2 Regional Transit History 2008. (n.d.). Retrieved 7-­‐18, 2012 from Sound Transit: Regional Transit History 2008. Sound Transit

website. Retrieved from http://www.soundtransit.org/Projects-­‐and-­‐Plans/System-­‐planning/2008.xml 3 Transit Development Plan 2011-­‐2016 and 2010 Annual Report. p 2-­‐3 4 “Line map–to downtown Seattle,” Sound Transit, http://www.soundtransit.org/Schedules/Central-­‐Link-­‐light-­‐rail?dir=inbound 5 Map from Sound Transit of taxing district boundaries. http://www.soundtransit.org/Documents/pdf/about/STDistrictMap07_10.pdf.

6 Sound Transit, “Funding Projects.” http://www.soundtransit.org/Projects-­‐and-­‐Plans/Developing-­‐Regional-­‐Transit/Funding-­‐ projects 7 The geographic coverage of an average 1⁄2 mile walk access and average 2 1⁄2 mile park-­‐and-­‐ride access to the rail stations, and the reach of existing local bus services (including average 1⁄4 mile walk distance to the bus) that would allow access to the rail system with one transfer.

Sound Transit 2 A Mass Transit Guide, The Regional Transit System Plan for Central Puget Sound, Appendix C: Benefits, Costs, Revenues, Capacity and Reliability, July 2008, Sound Transit, C-­‐12.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 3

28 and 31-­‐minute trip respectively from the Rainier Beach Station. The Capitol Hill Station will provide reliable access to jobs in one of the most significant and growing restaurant, nightlife, retail and arts neighborhoods in the city. In addition, the Capitol Hill Station provides easy access to additional K-­‐12 schools, Seattle Central Community College and Seattle University. The University of Washington Station connects Rainier Valley to the University of Washington (UW). The UW is 3rd largest Seattle-­‐area employer and is considered one of the best value undergraduate educations in America, and has highly ranked medical, law, public administration and business schools. In addition, workers can walk or connect to buses to access jobs in the University District commercial center.

In 2021, Link will be extended further north with the opening of the Northgate Link, adding 4.3 miles and 3 stations (Brooklyn, Roosevelt, and Northgate stations) to the regional system. The most northern station, Northgate, will be a 39-­‐minute trip from the Rainier Beach Station.8 The Brooklyn station will serve the surrounding residential community, the “Ave” business district, other employment sites, the UW Tower and the north University of Washington campus. The Roosevelt Station will serve the surrounding neighborhoods and the Roosevelt business district, including Roosevelt Square. The Northgate station will provide access to Northgate Mall, bus transfers at the transit center and adjacent park-­‐and-­‐ride facilities, and serve the surrounding neighborhoods.

Transit Ridership and Funding Regional transit ridership on fixed route service grew in 2012 by 2%, nearly tying the record ridership year of 2008 after declines in 2009 and 2010. 9 The overall growth in regional transit ridership is credited to King County Metro (Metro) and Sound Transit. Metro ridership grew 2.3% in 2012 and increased service hours by 6.1% in 2011. Sound Transit ridership grew in 2012 for bus, commuter rail, and Central Link by 13.2%, 10.4%, and 11.4%, respectively. Sound Transit service hours remained stable for 2012.

This can largely be attributed to the diverse funding structure of Sound Transit. Metro King County had a small reduction of service of 0.8% in 2011. However, if sustainable transit funding does not become available through efforts by the Washington State Legislature, an estimated $75 million annual revenue shortfall could force Metro to reduce bus service beginning in fall 2014. Metro has identified 65 routes at risk for elimination and 86 routes at risk for service reductions.10 The potential cuts would create a transit system with fewer travel options and longer travel times, with buses that are more crowded and less reliable. These effects could spread through the system as bus routes are eliminated and riders compete for space on other already-­‐crowded routes. Lower income users will be disproportionately affected as service becomes less reliable and limited for jobs with non-­‐ standard hours. Southeast Seattle could see up to 40 routes with: (1) reduced peak service to Bellevue, downtown Seattle, First Hill and the University District, (2) reduced midday/weekend service, and (3) reduced night service.11

Urban Growth Centers The Washington State Growth Management Act (GMA) calls for locating development in defined urban growth areas so services can be provided efficiently and natural resources conserved.

8

Northgate Link Extension, Northgate Extension Folio, 8/2012, Sound Transit.

Puget Sound Regional Council, Puget Sound Trends, NoT6, May 2013 10 King County Executive News. April 1, 2013. “65 bus routes face elimination when Metro Transit’s temporary funding expires http://www.kingcounty.gov/exec/news/release/2013/April/01MetroTransitPotentialCuts.aspx 11 Service reduction illustration: central and southeast Seattle/south King County, 2012 Service Guidelines Report, King County Metro Transit, http://metro.kingcounty.gov/am/future/at-­‐risk.html.

9

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 4

Supported by the GMA, the Puget Sound Regional Council’s12 long-­‐range regional strategy, VISION 2040, calls for the creation of central places with a mix of uses and activities. As part of this strategy, the City of Seattle has designated six major Regional Growth Centers, to receive a greater portion of the region’s population and employment growth. All of the Regional Growth Centers are planned to provide easy access to jobs, services, education, shopping, and entertainment.13 Centers also provide economic benefits as robust locations of commerce and business. The plan assigns 45 percent of future household growth (22,500 – 26,700 households) and 65 percent of job growth (85,410 – 95,500 jobs) to the six larger Regional Growth Centers of: (1) Uptown Queen Anne, (2) Seattle Central Business District, (3) First Hill/Capitol Hill, (4) Southlake Union, (5) University Community and (6) Northgate. Rainier Valley is also close to the Regional Growth Center of SeaTac. Growth centers offer tremendous potential for direct and reliable access to employment and educational opportunities for Rainier Valley residents, especially in the SeaTac, University Community, and Capitol Hill. These 3 centers are expected to have greater diversity in employment than the science and technology focused Southlake Union or concentrated financial and service orientated downtown.

SeaTac Regional Growth Center The proximity of the Sea-­‐Tac Regional Growth Center to Rainier Valley is an important asset but one that has not yet been fully realized. Sea-­‐Tac airport is a significant institution to the Puget Sound Region, employing 89,902 direct jobs and handling over 33 million passengers in 2012.14 However, the airport has received negative publicity for not paying living wages for contractor jobs.15 Much of the center’s employment is airport or airport-­‐related, including numerous hotels, restaurants, retail businesses, and airport parking. Despite the recession, the center added over 1,000 jobs between 2000-­‐2008, however has only reached 35% of its 2020 target, the lowest of the Seattle centers (See graph “Growth Centers % of 2020 Target16).

Growth Centers % of 2020 Target in 2008

100%

80%

82%

60% 40%

20%

0%

86% 62%

50% 35%

First Hill/ Capitol Hill

Northgate

SeaTac

Seaole CBD

University Community

12

The Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) is a regional planning organization that develops policies and makes decisions about transportation planning, economic development, and growth management throughout the four-­‐county Seattle metropolitan area surrounding Puget Sound.

13 Vision 2040 & Centers, Puget Sound Regional Council, Vision 2040 Topic Summaries, http://www.psrc.org/growth/vision2040/pub/vision2040-­‐topics/.

14 Seattle-­‐Tacoma International Airport Newsroom, Port of Seattle, http://www.portseattle.org/Newsroom/Fast-­‐ Facts/Pages/Airport-­‐Basics.aspx.

15 “Low wage Sea-­‐Tac workers fighting for better pay,” May 14, 2012, King5 News, http://www.king5.com/news/local/Low-­‐ wage-­‐Sea-­‐Tac-­‐workers-­‐fighting-­‐for-­‐better-­‐pay-­‐151441105.html 16 Puget Sound Trends, Employment in Regional Growth Centers, 2000-­‐2008, No E13 Oct 2009, Puget Sound Regional Council

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 5

Seattle Central Business District Seattle’s CBD is the largest of the growth centers in terms of both land size and employment. In 2000, 35% of Seattle’s jobs were in downtown Seattle.17 Downtown Seattle provides access to numerous employers in retail, tourism, restaurants, services, arts and hotels. The CBD has some of the greatest diversity in work with meaningful employment in government, finance and retail, however many of these jobs are out of reach for Rainier Valley residents. The bright spot is that the center has a significant and growing residential population, and is among the densest residential areas in the city.

This increase in the downtown population should bring more service jobs to support living and working in downtown. In 2000, 43% of jobs were related to Services.

Capitol Hill The Capitol Hill Station will provide reliable access to jobs in one of the most dynamic and popular areas in Seattle. Capitol Hill is a densely populated urban neighborhood made up of multiple-­‐family residential areas and storefront commercial streets. In 2000, 65% of employment was in Services and 14% in Retail, supporting the neighborhood’s extensive restaurant and shopping scene.18 First Hill is a major employment center, and home to many of the region’s state-­‐of-­‐the-­‐art medical centers and related facilities, including Swedish, Virginia Mason and Harborview medical centers.

In terms of education, the station also provides access to higher performing K-­‐12 schools19, Seattle Central Community College and Seattle University. The station is projected to have approximately 14,000 daily weekday boardings by 2030.

The University Community The University of Washington dominates the University District as an employer, employing over 30,000 in a wide-­‐variety of fields.20 The western portion of the University center is characterized by a wide range and mix of commercial and residential land uses. Future commercial and institutional land use is predicted to be approximately 66% of the total land uses in the University Community, suggesting a focus on jobs, both public and private.21 The University of Washington (UW) station will be an underground facility located adjacent to newly 17

Puget Sound Regional Council, 2002 Regional Growth Centers Report, Seattle Downtown Regional Growth Center.

Puget Sound Regional Council, 2002 Regional Growth Centers Report, Seattle First Hill Capitol Hill Regional Growth Center.

19 The Seattle Public School system has a program where students can submit a “school choice” application to attend schools outside their attendance area. This is an opportunity to get kids to higher performing programs not found in the Rainier Valley, http://www.seattleschools.org/modules/cms/pages.phtml?sessionid=&pageid=209157 20 University of Washington Factbook, Total Appointments by Type, Employment Status, and Campus 2010 Table F-­‐2. http://www.washington.edu/admin/factbook/.

21 Puget Sound Regional Council, 2002 Regional Growth Centers Report, Seattle University Community Regional Growth Center, 10.

18

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 6

expanded Husky Stadium. It will provide access to the UW campus and UW Medical Center, nearby sports venues and surrounding neighborhoods.22 Until the Brooklyn Station is completed in 2021, commuters will be able to access the University District within less than a 1-­‐mile walk or a quick bus transfer. Rainier Valley will have access to the University Way “Ave” business district, other developing employment sites, the UW Tower and the north University of Washington campus. By 2030 the UW station is projected to see an average of 21,500 daily weekday boardings, almost 5 times the average weekday boarding currently seen at SeaTac airport. 23 A one-­‐way trip from Rainier Beach will cost approximately $2.41 using the current base fare plus distance model.24

22

University Link Light Rail Fact Sheet, Sound Transit.

North Link – Brooklyn Station 60% Design Open House, Presentation, Sound Transit, May 23, 2012, 7.

24 Link light rail fares. Sound Transit. Website accessed June, 2013, http://www.soundtransit.org/Fares-­‐and-­‐Passes/Link-­‐fares.

23

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 7

Concentration of INDUSTRIES: Competitive Advantages, Opportunities & Challenges

In this portion of the report we focus on two economic development analysis tools, location quotients and shift share analysis. We use these to identify industries located in the Rainier Valley, to assess their strength relative to the region and the United States more broadly, and to identify possible opportunities for employment growth in the region. In addition to our written analysis, maps and charts visualizing our findings are available in the appendix.

Location quotient analysis 2002, 2010, 2011 Location quotient is “a technique used to identify the concentration of an industry sector in a local economy relative to a larger reference economy.”25 A location quotient is a ratio between the number of establishments in an industry locally to the number found in the larger reference economy. If the ratio is greater than one, the local economy has a greater representation than the reference economy; if the ratio is below one, the local economy has a lesser representation than the reference economy.

Essentially, location quotients tell us about an area’s specializations relative to a larger economy.

Since it is a relative measure, it is important to remember that even a high location quotient in some industry can represent a small number of companies if the reference economy has a low number of companies in that industry. Additionally, a large number of establishments does not necessarily equate to a large number of jobs. A common example of this is an industry that is comprised of small businesses with only a few employees.

We computed location quotients with the zip code level comprising the “local” economy, and used King County as the reference economy (the former being the numerator of our quotient, and the latter being the denominator). Because the Rainier Valley is fairly urban and Washington is a largely rural state, the more urbanized King County makes a better comparison than the state itself. The analysis would be even more useful at a smaller level of data (for example, census tract level), but we could not locate recent data at this level. Additionally, because we had multiple years of data at the zip code level, this allows us to analyze the change in industry in the three zip codes over time. Our data were gathered from the US Census Bureau’s County and Zip Code Business Patterns dataset.

The first year of data for our analysis is 2002, before Link Light Rail was announced. The second year of data is 2010, which was just after Link Light Rail began to operate from Sea-­‐Tac airport to Downtown Seattle via Rainier Valley. Our last and most recent year of data is 2011. These ranges of data were chosen strategically in an attempt to capture broader macroeconomic trends of the region and nation, as well as to gauge the effect (if any) Link Light Rail has had on the Rainier Valley.

Shift share analysis 2002-­‐2011

25

Planning Local Economic Development Edward Blakely & Nancey Green Leigh, page 167.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 8

In addition to computing location quotients, we also conducted a shift share analysis of King County.

Shift share is a relative measure of changes in employment above and beyond the national level. It consists of comparing the growth or loss of jobs in a given sector in one geographic area over time and then comparing the “share” that area has with the change in employee numbers in that industry at the national level.

For our shift-­‐share analysis of King County, we used 2002 to 2011 data, and measured job losses and gains by industry across that span of years. Shift share shows us which industries are growing nationally and if King County is keeping up with those trends. It also reveals if industries that are important to the region are contracting. The area’s “share” is the change above and beyond and the national trend.

Additionally, average job growth across the economy is subtracted from the percentage job growth in each industry. The following is an example using manufacturing:

From 2002 to 2011, the United States saw a 23.67% job loss in manufacturing and an average job growth rate of 1.67%. This loss minus the average growth rate amounts to a -­‐25.35% proportional shift in manufacturing. King County lost an even more dramatic 33.15% over the same time period. Again accounting for the assumed growth of 1.67%, that means that King County lost 9.46% more than the national average loss. Thus, -­‐9.46% is King County’s shift share in the manufacturing sector.

This type of analysis allows us to examine the health of the county economy and if it is competitive in growing industries. When combined with location quotient data, it also allows us to see potential economic shifts that could disproportionately hurt the region due to a unique concentration of jobs in that sector. This type of analysis is not generally useful at the neighborhood level due to its broad focus on trends, which are not always replicated as closely in a small locality.26 However, using county-­‐level data allows us to look at regional trends, to compare them with national numbers for guidance as to the competitive advantages of the region, and to then compare these against the Rainier Valley’s specializations.

Shift Share for King County -­‐ Selected Results Positive shift share (beyond the national average change): Arts: 6%.

Management of companies and enterprises: 83%27 Other services (local services, non-­‐export driven): 11.3%.

Professional, scientific and technical services: 5.6%

Negative shift share (beyond the national average change): Manufacturing: -­‐9.4% Transportation and warehousing: -­‐18% Finance and insurance: -­‐18%

26

Planning Local Economic Development Edward Blakely & Nancey Green Leigh, page 181.

Important note: this number is likely unreliable. Between 2002 and 2010, the NAICS category “Auxiliaries (exc corporate, subsidiary & regional mgt)” was eliminated and distributed into other categories. We suspect that the “Management of companies and enterprises” code was disproportionately affected by this change, leading to unreliable numbers in this category.

27

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 9

Type of Analysis Location Quotient Shift-­‐share

Unit of Analysis Zip-­‐code level County level

Raw Data Measure number of businesses in an industry number of employees

Local Economy (numerator) 98108, 98118, & 98144 King County

Reference Economy (denominator) King County United States

To that end, we compared our Rainier Valley location quotients with this deeper knowledge of national economic trends and the regional economy to reveal if the Rainier Valley:

• Has comparative advantage in industries that are growing nationally, • Has a share of industries in which King County has above average growth, and/or • Is specialized in industries that are contracting.

This analysis revealed that each zip code has its own unique industrial profile.

Rainier Valley-­‐ Selected Results 98108 -­‐ Beacon Hill and Georgetown In 98108, consistently high location quotients were found for the following industries: • Manufacturing (with a three-­‐year average of 4.24); • Transportation and warehousing (with a three-­‐year average of 3.17), and • Wholesale trade (with a three-­‐year average of 3.62).

Our shift share analysis revealed that while overall the country saw a 25.35% loss in manufacturing, King County lost even more (33.15%, as noted in the prior shift share example). These numbers are indicative of the well-­‐documented national decline in manufacturing.28 Additionally, the three-­‐zip code area showed a decline in manufacturing, with a net loss of 36 establishments between 2002-­‐2012.

However, 98108 has a distinct and strong advantage in manufacturing and the related industries of transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade. These were the highest location quotients in our analysis, and from 2002-­‐2011 they either stayed stable or grew strongly (in the case of manufacturing).

While some think that manufacturing is a dying industry, it is precisely because of the decline in American manufacturing that this sector has been the target of much effort to maintain and grow manufacturing jobs.29 Rainier Valley may be able to exploit its proximity to the downtown and high density residential areas of Seattle.

An important caveat to the apparent strength of manufacturing in this area is that although our analysis is focused on the Rainier Valley, this zip code includes Georgetown, which is located west of Interstate 5 and outside of our primary research area. Georgetown is largely zoned for manufacturing and Puget Sound Regional Council’s Vision 2040 Plan indicates that zoning for manufacturing will likely be limited to this area. Because we do not have any finer level of data, we cannot determine specifically which area within the zip code is responsible for this finding.

28

Pierce, Justin & Schott, Peter, The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18655 29 Pisano, Gary, Building a Strong Foundation for American Manufacturing. Forbes Magazine: http://www.forbes.com/sites/hbsworkingknowledge/2013/04/30/building-­‐a-­‐strong-­‐foundation-­‐for-­‐american-­‐manufacturing/

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 10

King County lost a slightly larger share of wholesale trade jobs than the national average from 2002 to 2011, but location quotients in 98108 have been strong and stable across the time period (3.63 in both 2002 and 2011). We suspect a relationship exists between the three industries of manufacturing, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing. Although the other two zip codes have lower location quotients in these areas, they may be able to take advantage of the distinct specialty nearby.

Consistently low location quotients were found for the following industries: • Educational services (with a three-­‐year average of .41), • Finance and insurance (with a three year average of .20), • Health care and social assistance (with a three-­‐year average of .36), • Information (with a three-­‐year average of .30), and • Professional, scientific and technical services (with a three-­‐year average of .34).

Most industries showed an increase in location quotient from 2002 to 2011, with notable increases in: • Construction (from .87 in 2002 to 1.04 in 2011), • Transportation and warehousing (from 3.00 in 2002 to 3.25 in 2011), • Manufacturing (from 3.79 in 2002 to 4.79 in 2011), and • Administrative support services (from .79 to 1.05 in 2011).

Notable decreases included utilities (from 2.19 in 2002 to 1.31 in 2011), and arts (from .80 in 2002 to .55 in 2011). Compared to the other two zip codes, 98108 showed much stronger and more consistent growth in the industries they already had high quotients in (and even in some they were not) from 2002 to 2011. One example of this is the increase in retail from .68 in 2002 to .78 in 2011. But, while that increase was modest, increases in manufacturing, construction, and transportation and warehousing were much stronger.

98118 -­‐ Columbia City In 98118, which includes Columbia City, a very different economic picture emerges. Location quotients in this zip code are not nearly as high as they are in 98108, with the highest three-­‐year averages in: • Accommodation and food services (with a three-­‐year average of 1.21), • Health care and social assistance (with a three-­‐year average of 1.59), and • Arts, entertainment, and recreation (with a three-­‐year average of 1.18).

Promoting the arts is a main focus of Southeast Effective Development (SEED), one of the community based organizations working in the area, but the quotient showed a decline from 2002 to 2011. This was driven by gains at the county level rather than losses in Rainier Valley. The number of establishments in this zip code actually increased from 11 to 13 from 2002 to 2011. This is industry is growing nationally and at the county level, and despite modest gains in numbers of businesses, the share in 98118 is getting smaller because it isn’t keeping pace with the growth in this industry throughout King County.

Consistently low location quotients in 98118 included: • Information (with a three-­‐year average of .30), • Transportation and warehousing (with a three-­‐year average of .66), and • Professional, scientific, and technical services (with a three-­‐year average of .60).

Unfortunately, jobs in technology and information are much sought after in the region, and though our shift share analysis revealed that professional, scientific, and technical services are growing at the Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 11

county level, this zip code is not getting a share of those jobs. However, despite the low quotient, it has increased from 2002-­‐2011 (from .44 in 2002 to .67 in 2011).

98118 had fewer location quotient increases from 2002 to 2011 than 98108, and more actual decreases over that time period. Increases included: • Retail (from 1.11 in 2002 to 1.24 to 2011), • Construction (from .94 in 2002 to 1.02 in 2011), and • Finance and insurance (from .59 in 2002 to .82 in 2011) • Professional, scientific, and technical services (from .44 in 2002 to .67 in 2011).

Decreases from 2002 to 2011 included: • Administrative and support services (from 1.26 in 2002 to .84 in 2011), • Educational services (from 1.31 in 2002 to 1.03 in 2011) • Health care and social assistance (from 1.75 in 2002 to 1.49 in 2011), and • Manufacturing and real estate (from .82 in 2002 to .60 in 2011).

Compared to the other two zip codes, 98118 saw a mix of increases and decreases between 2002 and 2011, depending on the industry.

98144 -­‐ Mt. Baker & Leschi This zip code includes Mt. Baker and the more affluent Leschi. The high location quotients in this zip code tended to be slightly higher than in 98118, but not as high as in 98108. High location quotients were seen in: • Educational services (with a three-­‐year average of 1.99), and • Health care and social assistance (with a three-­‐year average of 1.21).

As shown, educational services have a relatively strong location quotient in 98144. Although this number declined from 2002-­‐2011, this sector is growing in King County and nationally. This could be a strategic area for the region, because educational opportunities are lacking for many Rainier Valley children. Consult the Education section of this report for a more detailed analysis.

Industries with low location quotients included: • Transportation and warehousing (with a three-­‐year average of .46), and • Wholesale trade (with a three-­‐year average of .73).

Industries which experienced growth from 2002-­‐2011 in this zip code included: 30 • Management of companies (with quotients increasing from .47 to 1.31), • Transportation and warehousing (from .28 to .59), • Professional, scientific, and technical services (from .65 to .79), and • Construction (increasing from 1.04 to 1.17).

Significant declines in location quotient from 2002 to 2011 included: • Arts (from 1.17 in 2002 to 1.02 in 2011), • Educational services (declining from 2.15 to 1.93), 30

Regarding management of companies and enterprises, an auxiliary management category existed in 2002 and was taken away between 2002 and 2011, so while quotients increased, it could be due to the auxiliary category being collapsed into management of companies and enterprises.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 12

• •

Manufacturing (from 1.67 to 1.38), and Wholesale trade (from .83 to .74).

Overall Trends For the entire three zip-­‐code area, notable increases in absolute number of establishments were seen in the following industries: • Accommodation and food services (a net gain of 53 establishments, from 187 in 2002 to 240 in 2011) • Healthcare and social assistance (a net gain of 49 establishments, from 219 in 2002 to 268 in 2011) • Professional, technical, and scientific services (a net gain of 62 establishments, from 160 in 2002 to 222 in 2011), and • Transportation and warehousing (a net gain of 30 establishments, from 89 in 2002 to 119 in 2011).

Notable declines for the three zip-­‐code area were seen in the following industries: • Manufacturing (a net loss of 36 establishments, from 269 in 2002 to 233 in 2011), and • Wholesale trade (a net loss of 53 establishments, from 404 in 2002 to 350 in 2011).

Our shift share analysis revealed that King County showed strong growth in health care and social assistance with a 20.78% gain in employment, just slightly behind the national average of 21.2%.

Although King County technically shows a negative share, these numbers clearly show that this sector is a huge growth area both locally and nationally. Both 98144 and 98118 had a decline in location quotient in this sector between 2002 and 2011. However, this is not due to a loss of establishments: in fact, the total number of businesses in this industry increased in each of the two zip codes (a net gain of 15 for 98144, and of 11 for 98118) but King County’s growth in health care establishments outpaced these gains, leading to the loss in location quotient. Regardless, health care is a growing industry in which 98118 (location quotient: 1.49, 2011) and 98144 (location quotient: 1.17, 2011) have at least a slight advantage.

At the county level, construction lost slightly more than the national average in employment, but all three Rainier Valley zip codes had a steady increase in their construction location quotients from 2002-­‐ 2011. Some economic development professionals recommend against focusing on locally-­‐oriented industries such as construction, retail, services, and restaurants to build jobs. Industries that export out of the neighborhood bring money into the community, while industries that serve a local clientele recycle the same money through the community. A combination is needed for a healthy neighborhood, but to grow employment these professionals recommend export-­‐driven industries.31

Shift share analysis shows that in another locally-­‐oriented industry, retail, King County lost 2.84% more than the rest of the country, but in 98118 the retail location quotient increased from 1.11 to 1.24 from 2002-­‐2011. 98108 also had a modest gain (from 0.68 to 0.78) and 98144 lost just 0.02 (from 1.04-­‐1.02).

Despite 98108’s strong location quotient in manufacturing, both 98118 and 98144 showed losses in this category, with 98118 falling from 0.82 in 2002 to 0.6 in 2011 and 98144 showing a more substantial loss from 1.67 to 1.02. While large employment losses occurred county-­‐wide between 2002 and 2011, these losses are relative to the county and indicate a larger loss of establishments than the county average.

31

Planning Local Economic Development Edward Blakely & Nancey Green Leigh, page 166.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 13

Conclusion Overall, the Rainier Valley has a few areas for potential job growth. The manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade industries are concentrated in the 98108 zip code and can be supported by facilitating additional cooperation between them.

These were the strongest location quotients in our analysis, and the most significant competitive advantage we have to report. Further research should investigate what, if anything, the City of Seattle and community organizations can do to support the health of these sectors in Southeast Seattle. A first step for these organizations is to approach leaders in these industries and ask what they need to be successful. Additionally, efforts should be made to identify how Rainier Valley residents can take advantage of the planned growth in manufacturing in Georgetown.

Healthcare is another opportunity for the Rainier Valley. The other two zip codes, 98144 and 98118, have strength in this industry. Their losses in location quotient are due to growth at the county level rather than losses in the locality. Because healthcare provides a living wage and is growing quickly at both the national and local levels, organizations working to support employment in the Rainier Valley should work to foster the competitive advantage of agencies located in the area.

As previously stated, there is some strength in educational services in the area, especially in 98144.

Efforts to mitigate that loss in the future could be helpful in establishing it as the educational center of the Rainier Valley. As you will read elsewhere in this report, education is a central issue for the Rainier Valley. There may be an opportunity for synergy here, especially with regard to early childhood education. In order to take advantage of growing local and regional industries that provide a living wage, Rainier Valley residents will need better access to education and training.

Though we choose our analysis time period to strategically address Link Light Rail’s effect on Southeast Seattle, we have been unable to identify any definitive effects that it has had through our analysis.

However, this does not mean that Link has not had an impact on opportunities for Rainier Valley residents. Because this analysis focuses on employment located in the locality, it is unable to show new access to jobs outside the area due to Link. Additionally, the years that we examined spanned the worst recession the United States has seen since the Great Depression. As a result, some of the variation in our results is caused by the global shakeups in industry that occurred in response and it is impossible to tease out the source of changes using these tools.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 14

Educational ATTAINMENT & ACCESS

The following section will provide information about the quality of education provided to residents of the Rainier Valley in addition to highlighting regional equity issues related to educational access. This sort of educational data is necessary in order to evaluate both current trends and skill levels of residents for employment planning purposes and to better understand the impact LINK light rail may have had, or could have in the future, with regard to improving access to quality schools. For the purposes of this report, only the trends and impacts of early childhood education, public K-­‐12 education, and 2 and 4-­‐ year postsecondary education were examined.

Early Learning Access to quality early learning is crucial to ensure future success in school. Studies have found that early childhood education can lead to improved cognitive skills among toddlers and young children. In addition to preparing young children for kindergarten, it has also been linked to better academic performance and improved grade retention rates throughout a child’s academic career.32

The positive influence of early learning is not exclusive to childhood. In fact, benefits have also been linked to improved graduation rates and increased likelihood of pursuing postsecondary education. This improvement in educational outcomes inevitably leads to higher employment rates and earnings among adults, indicating that the impacts of quality early childhood education have long ranging impacts and are a worthwhile investment in a child’s future.33

In the Rainier Valley, there are two main types of licensed childcare and early child education centers that provide early learning opportunities: Family Child Care Centers and traditional Child Care Centers.

The centers are licensed through the Washington State Department of Early Learning (DEL). In addition to licensing, the DEL also offers an optional training and assessment program, Early Achievers, for child care centers and their staff in an effort to ensure quality early learning programs. The breakdown of childcare centers in the Rainier Valley is illustrated in the table below.34

Type of Center Number of Centers in Rainier Number of Centers Valley Participating in Early Achievers Family Child Care Centers Child Care Centers

117 9

20 2

The Rainier Valley also has five Head Start programs and five Early Childhood Education and Assistance Program (ECEAP) centers. Both Head Start and ECEAP provide free child are and early childhood education programs for low-­‐income families, though for both programs long waitlists mean substantial unmet need.35

32

Karoly, Lynn A., M. R. Kilburn, and Jill S. Cannon. Early Childhood Interventions: Proven Results, Future Promise. Rep. RAND Corporation, 2005. Web. <http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG341.pdf>.

33 Ibid.

34 Data gathered using Child Care Aware of WA’s Online Statewide Referral database.

35 “Early Childhood Education and Assistance Program, Head Start and Early Head Start in Washington State: 2012 Report.” WA Department of Early Learning.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 15

Access to quality early learning programs provides a strong foundation with far-­‐reaching impacts on a child’s future education attainment and employment prospects. For children from low-­‐income families and communities of color, the importance of early learning is an essential tool for addressing the growing achievement gap; a significant problem faced by Rainier Valley residents as evidenced by the next section of this report.

K-­‐12 Education For the purposes of this report, only the public K-­‐12 schools within the Rainier Valley were studied. This school system is represented by Seattle Public Schools District 7 and includes 21 schools including 13 elementary schools, 2 K-­‐8 schools, 2 middle schools, and 4 high schools.36 Maps of the district can be found in the appendix.

When first analyzing the current opportunities and challenges faced within this district, it is imperative that the demographics of the student population be represented and understood. As the pie chart below illustrates, District 7 is a very ethnically and racially diverse district, especially in comparison to the rest of Seattle Public Schools.37

Race and Ethnicity Within Rainier Race and Ethnicity Within Seaale

Valley Public Schools Public Schools

American Indian/ American Indian/ 6% 6% 1% 1% Alaskan Natve Alaskan Natve

Asian/Pacific Asian/Pacific Islander Islander

19% 12% 32%

African American African American 13%

43% 19%

Hispanic Hispanic 12% 36%

White White

In addition to the racial and ethnic diversity of the Rainier Valley public school system, there are also a significant number of students receiving Free and Reduced Lunch (FRL); an average of 72% compared to 43% in Seattle Public Schools and 45% statewide. More than 85% of the student population qualified for FRL in 7 of the 21 schools examined in this report, with Martin Luther King Jr. Elementary ranking the highest at 92%.38

The high proportion of low-­‐income and underrepresented students within District 7 is an important consideration when analyzing the achievement rates of area schools as it illuminates a growing achievement and opportunity gap.

36

Seattle Public Schools: http://www.seattleschools.org/modules/groups/homepagefiles/cms/1583136/File/Maps/board_dis/FIN_DIR_7.pdf 37 Data from Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction, Washington State Report Card 38 Ibid.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 16

Quality of Education As part of a five-­‐year strategic plan started in 2009, the Seattle Public Schools releases an annual “School Segmentation District Report” that measures the progress each school has made towards meeting certain targets set by the district.39 These segments break the schools down into five levels for comparison. Targets are based on attendance goals, student achievement-­‐ including reading and math proficiency-­‐ and year-­‐over-­‐year change.

Each school will receive two scores based on their performance that are then used to calculate their segmentation level. The primary score used for ranking is the absolute score. This score is given based on a given school’s performance with respect to district targets within the 5-­‐year strategic plan. The second score is the growth score, which measures the level of improvement over previous years. Both the absolute score and growth score range from 0 to 100.

Most often the absolute score is used to generate the level for comparison. However, if certain school has a growth score greater than or equal to 50, they can be given a higher level. In addition, if schools have an achievement gap for FRL-­‐eligible students that is less than 25, they too can be given a higher level. More explanation is provided in the chart below:

Absolute Score School Level Other Criteria School Level Low (0-­‐29) Level 1 Growth ≥ 50 Level 3 Med-­‐Low (30-­‐59) Level 2 Growth ≥ 50 Level 3 Med-­‐High (60-­‐79) Level 3

High (80-­‐100) Level 4 FRL Gap < 25 Level 5

The maps to the right illustrate the segmentation levels of Seattle Public Schools in 2009, 2010, and 2012, using the colors from the chart above to represent each level. In each year, District 7 schools in the Rainier Valley rank among the lowest in Seattle. In the 2012 Segmentation Report, 3 of the 5 lowest ranked elementary schools in the Seattle Public School District were in the Rainier Valley, each receiving a Level 1.

The lowest ranked middle and high schools are also in District 7.

39

All Segmentation data from the “2012 School Segmentation Report.” Seattle Public Schools, Nov. 2012.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 17

These stark regional differences in the achievement rates of Seattle Public Schools raise important equity issues, as the children living in the Rainier Valley often attend underperforming schools. The long waitlists and competitive processes in place to attend schools outside of district mandated attendance areas often means that even if students could use the newly expanded transit system to access better schools, they may not be able to attend.

Educational Attainment Escmated Annual On-­‐Time Graduacon Rate for There are four high schools in the Rainier Rainier Valley High Schools 2007-­‐2010 Valley; Cleveland STEM High School, Franklin High School, Rainier Beach High 90 School and an alternative high school 80 called South Lake. The graduation rates 70 of these four schools from 2007 to 2010 60 are represented in the graph to the 50 40 right.40 30

20 Graduating from high school can have a 10 significant impact on future earnings and 0 employment rates for adults. In fact, a 2007 2008 2009 2010 report by the Washington State Budget and Policy Center found that in 2010, Cleveland HS Franklin HS Rainier Beach HS South Lake HS those without a high school diploma Seaole PS Washington State faced an unemployment rate 5% higher 41 than those with a high school diploma.

Postsecondary Education Obtaining a college degree can translate to an increase in hourly wages of $15.54 as compared to a high school degree.42 In addition, as the location quotient and shift share analysis within this report illustrates, the new economy in King County will require a well-­‐educated workforce. Areas of competitive advantage for the City of Seattle and potential areas of investment for Rainier Valley will require skilled labor, making post-­‐secondary education all the more important.

The graph to the right indicates the percentage of high school graduates from 3 of the 4 District 7 high schools that have gone on to pursue 2-­‐year or 4-­‐year

% of Rainier Valley HS Students Pursuing 2-­‐year or 4-­‐year Postsecondary Educacon (2005-­‐2011) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

CLEVELAND HS

FRANKLIN HS

RAINIER BEACH HS

STATEWIDE

2011

40

Data from Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction, Washington State Report Card Justice, Kim. “Declining Support for Education Threatens Economic Growth.” WA State Budget and Policy Center, Nov. 2011.

42 Ibid.

41

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 18

postsecondary education.43 Franklin High School has the most consistent trend, well above the statewide average, while both Cleveland High School and Rainier Beach High School have seen improvement in recent years.

There are many public and private 2-­‐year and 4-­‐year postsecondary schools in the Greater Seattle area, many of which residents in the Rainier Valley have exceptional access to as a result of the transit investments like LINK Light Rail. However, there are two 2-­‐year colleges in particular that students from Rainier Valley High Schools attend with the highest frequency (see graphs below).44

% of Rainier Valley HS Enrollments % of Rainier Valley HS Enrollments

Aaending South Seaale Community Aaending Seaale Central Community

College 2005-­‐2011 College 2005-­‐2011

40 50 40 30

30

20 20 10 10

0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Cleveland HS Franklin HS Cleveland HS Franklin HS

Rainier Beach HS Rainier Beach HS

While transit access to the Seattle area’s largest 4-­‐year institution, the University of Washington, is already significant, residents of the Rainier Valley will have even greater access when the LINK Light Rail extension to the campus opens in 2016. Below is a graph indicating the percent of Rainier Valley high school students that have enrolled at the University of Washington from 2005 to 2011:45

Percent of Rainier Valley High School Enrollments Aaending University

of Washington 2005-­‐2011

40

Cleveland High 35

School 30

Franklin High School

25

20

Rainier Beach High 15 School

10

5

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

43

Data from the State of Washington Education Research & Data Center, P20 Reports on Washington Public High School Graduates 44

Ibid. No data available for Rainier Beach High School enrollments at South Seattle Community College in 2011.

Ibid.

45

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 19

Conclusion Increased access to education is intrinsically linked to improved employment outcomes both in the present sense and well into the future. It is not enough to simply focus on high school completion rates or higher education attainment for the purposes of understanding the impact of education on employment outcomes. To be sure that the impact of education is being fairly represented and supported it is imperative that multiple levels and types of education be examined. It is equally important-­‐ particularly in an area as diverse as the Rainier Valley-­‐ that the relationships socioeconomic status and race and ethnicity share with both educational outcomes and future employment opportunities are an integral part of the conversation.

As evidenced by this report, the Rainier Valley schools are largely underperforming which puts residence at a disadvantage, as the new economy around them requires higher and higher levels of educational attainment. In order for the Rainier Valley and its residents to compete for a fair share of the labor market, the achievement and opportunity gaps between low-­‐income and underrepresented populations will need to be addressed.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 20

Existing Conditions & FUTURE DIRECTIONS

Washington State Growth Management calls for locating development in defined urban growth areas so services can be provided efficiently and natural resources conserved. To help achieve these goals the metropolitan planning organization’s Vision 2040 plan supports creating compact communities with employment and housing growth focused in centers connected by an efficient transportation system.

Rainier Valley is not designated as a center, which limits development that can occur in the valley.

However, it has a unique advantage over much of Seattle in that it is connected to 5 growth centers directly via light rail. This provides Rainier Valley residents with reliable transportation to major job centers that should continue to grow.

As the Rainier Valley continues to adjust to the opportunities and challenges brought about by the transportation investments, it is essential that strategic investments be made in areas that promote future economic growth and prosperity for the region. Taken as a whole, the Rainier Valley has several opportunities for employment growth. These include the health care and educational services industries, which are both healthy industries with major growth nationwide and even stronger growth at the county level. They are also industries in which Rainier Valley has at least some competitive advantage. Manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade are also competitive strengths. However, transportation is growing nationally and King County is falling behind in this industry. Rainier Valley’s specialization and relatively lower land values could offer the county a chance to catch up in this industry.

Manufacturing and wholesale trade are both contracting at the national and county level. Support for better cooperation within and between these industries could be facilitated through Community Based Organizations and the City of Seattle to help the Rainier Valley to protect this important source of jobs.

The arts, entertainment, and recreation field is a growing industry as well. While the Rainier Valley has limited specialization in this area, continued focus in this area could be warranted. Currently, growth in the number of art-­‐related businesses at the county level is outpacing that of the Rainier Valley in each zip code we analyzed, despite the efforts of many local development organizations’ work to promote the arts as an economic driver.

It is also clear that in order to keep pace with the evolving new economy, the Rainier Valley will need to improve upon its underperforming public school system. One key area of investment to improve educational outcomes is in early learning. Access to quality early learning programs provide children with the skill necessary to succeed in the K-­‐12 continuum, leading to higher graduation rates and increased earnings down the road. However, change in the education system as well as the future employment outlook will not improve for Rainier Valley residents so long as there is a growing achievement gap in schools. Communities of color, especially Latinos, are the fastest growing populations in the country. If the opportunity gap in places like the Rainier Valley is not addressed, cities like Seattle will have large populations of people that cannot access well-­‐paid jobs that meet their basic needs, the impact of which will be felt by the entire population. Improved educational outcomes would enable residents of the Rainier Valley to compete for the skilled jobs in the new economy that would provide them with living wages and renewed opportunity, advancing the economy and development of not only the Rainier Valley, but also Seattle as a whole.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY 21

Appendix A: Planned MOBILITY - Maps and Data LYNNWOOD

Puget Sound Regional Council

KING COUNTY: Growth Area Boundary & Growth Centers

N

KIRKLAND

SEATTLE REDMOND

LYNNWOOD

KIRKLAND

SEATTLE REDMOND

BELLEVUE BELLEVUE

MERCER ISLAND

MERCER ISLAND

RENTON

BURIEN

RENTON

TACOMA

BURIEN

Urban Land

Rural or Resource Land

Regional Growth Center

Manufacturing/Industrial Center

TACOMA

CENTRAL LINK LIGHT RAIL: Growth Center Connections

Rainier Valley Study Area 98144 98118 98108

Existing Line 2016 Extension 2021 Extension Downtown Transit Tunnel LINK Station Regional Growth Center

Northgate 2021

N

University Community 2016

Downtown Seattle

First Hill/Capitol Hill

Stops in Transit Tunnel

2016

RAINIER VALLEY

SeaTac Stops at Airport

Manufacturing/ Industrial Center

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 22

J6 J6 J6

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!"#$"%&

!"#$%&'()*+%,-.)/"&-"+)0+"&12)344567558

Regional Growth Center Trends 1990 - 2008

(Data Source: Puget Sound Regional Council)

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 23

0%-'();%<2)

5/D'E'.

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(Data Source: Puget Sound Regional Council)

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 24

CENTRAL LINK: Access to and from the Rainier Valley

Healthcare

Education

SEATTLE

SEATTLE

Transit Tunnel

Transit Tunnel

Rainier Valley Study Area 98144 98118 98108

N

LINK Station Existing Line 2016 Extension 2021 Extension

Healthcare Medical Institution

Education 2 Year Institution 4 Year Institution 9th - 12th Grade

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 25

Appendix B: Concentration of INDUSTRIES - Maps and Data N

LOCATION QUOTIENTS: Zip codes surrounding the Rainier Valley Rainier Valley Study Area 98144 98118 98108

Less

-0.01

-0.25

-0.24

than

to

Little or No Change

0.25

0.50

1.00

0.49

0.99

1.99

to

to

2.00

to

and Above

+

-

2002 1.67

Manufacturing Transportation & Warehousing Professional & Scientific Services Arts, Entertainment &Recreation Information

3.79 0.82

0.28 3.00 0.52

0.65 0.37 0.44

1.17 1.15 0.80

0.72 0.32 0.36

2011 1.02 4.39 0.60

0.59 3.25 0.84

0.79 0.33 0.67

1.02 1.13 0.55

0.68 0.35 0.30

Change 0.65 + 0.60 0.22

+ 0.31 + + 0.25 0.32

+ 0.14 + 0.04 0.23

0.15 0.02 0.22

0.04 0.03 0.06

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 26

(Data Source: US Census Bureau County & Zip Code Business

Location Quotient by Zip Code and Industry

! " "

# "

$

$

,

"

-

%

%

& " '

(

) *

" *

"

+

+

."

/0

-

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! "# $ % % & % ' ( ) *) % % (% (

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 27

No. of Establishments and Location! "

# " $ % " #

Quotient by Zip Code and Industry &

' (Data Source: US Census Bureau County & Zip Code Business Patterns)

! "

# $

%

%

&

&

'

(

(

)

! " " # $ " % " " & ! ' $ ! "$ ( " )*

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 28

2

' ( %

2

0 !

.

2

/

3

3

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4

. %

0

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$

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3

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5 % ! ( 6 7 # ! ! 8 ) 9 " ) # 9 # 7 23 3

3

11

13

1

2

4

2

Location Quotient for 98108 by Industry in 2002, 2010 & 2011

(Data Source: US Census Bureau County & Zip Code Business Patterns)

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 29

.

( '# &# &#

%

&

.

4 /

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/

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, #

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Location Quotient for 98118 by Industry in 2002, 2010 & 2011

(Data Source: US Census Bureau County & Zip Code Business Patterns)

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 30

03 0

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2

13

Location Quotient for 98144 by Industry in 2002, 2010 & 2011

(Data Source: US Census Bureau County & Zip Code Business Patterns)

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 31

KIRKLAND

N

LAND USE PATTERNS: Current Zoning in the RAINIER VALLEY

RED

Seattle Zoning Code Downtown Neighborhood/ Commercial Major Institutions Multi Family Residential Single Family Residential Manufacturing/ Industrial

SEATTLE

BELLEVUE MERCER ISLAND

Regional Designation Regional Growth Center Manufacturing/ Industrial Center

Rainier Valley Study Area 98144 98118 98108

RENTON

BURIEN

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 32

Appendix C: Educational ATTAINMENT & ACCESS - Maps LOCAL EDUCATION: Schools Located in Seattle

School System

N

Public Schools SEATTLE

Higher Education

SEATTLE

North Seattle CC

University of Washington

Seattle Pacific University SEATTLE

Seattle University

Seattle Central CC

South Seattle CC

Rainier Valley Study Area 98144 98118 98108

District 7

School Level K - 6th Grade K - 8th Grade 7th - 8th Grade 9th - 12th Grade Alternative

Higher Education 2 Year Institution 4 Year Institution

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 33

2012 SCHOOL SEGMENTATION: District Report Results

Growth in 2012

2009

SEATTLE

N

2010

SEATTLE

SEATTLE 2011

SEATTLE

Rainier Valley Study Area 98144 98118 98108

2012

SEATTLE

School Scores 5 4 3 2 1

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 34

Appendix D: Opportunity MAPPING All maps included within this report and presentation were created using the data collected for this three part analysis, addressing regional mobility, local industry, and local educational attainment and access.

Using GIS (geospatial information systems), this data has been saved in a spatial format that is not available for geospatial analysis.

Sources of Data

Three primary sources provided the GIS shapefiles used:

1) Washington State Geospatial Data Archive (WAGDA) - Seattle specific files, such as land use,

schools, and hospitals;

2) the King County GIS Data Portal - County level files, such as growth boundaries, water and

shoreline, and zipcode boundaries; and 3) Sound Transit Data Downloads - LINK files, such as rail alignment and light rail stops.

Future Use

The shapefiles created using the data collected for this analysis enable an individual, agency or department, institution, or non-profit interested in assessing opportunities in and around the Rainer Valley. Opportunity mapping is a method for visualizing and conceptualizing data in a visual, geospatial format. These maps can be used to both supplement the analytical constitution of this study and visual components of the final report. The main purpose of creating opportunity maps is to:

Visualize nodes and/or voids of educational achievement/attainment, resident and commuter

mobility, and employment opportunities;

Locate potential synergies and/or conflicts among the three main research areas;

Compare Rainer Valley to local employment centers and analyze what effects mobility and

access to these locales has on employment and educational opportunities for area residents; and

Ultimately, discover needs and/or opportunities for residents, employers, and the labor market

in Rainer Valley.

This data in GIS format is available upon request.

Appendix E: Presentation on RAINIER VALLEY OPPORTUNITIES The following pages contain the slides from a presentation given by the authors of this report. This presentation was given by on June 5, 2013 to the Evans Schoolâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s course on Community Economic Development instructed by Daniel Carlson.

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 35

Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY PbAf 566 Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 36

COMMUNITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Spring 2013 Erin GENGO Elena HERNANDEZ Aaron LYKKEN Lauren MATHISEN Catherine SILVA

Employment in the RAINIER VALLEY Planned Mobility Concentration of Industries Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 37

Competitive Advantages, Opportunities, & Challenges Educational Attainment & Access

Existing Conditions & Future Direction

98144 98108

98118

Regional GROWTH STRATEGY WA LEGISLATURE - Growth Management Act LYNNWOOD

KIRKLAND

Kirkland

SEATTLE

Seattle

REDMOND

Policy Direction thru VISION 2040

Belleve BELLEVUE

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 38

MERCER ISLAND

Renton

Centers are Focal Points of Development

RENTON

Burien BURIEN

Vashon Island

Kent

65% JOB GROWTH within Centers by 2020

TACOMA

Tacoma

King County Urban Growth Boundary

PRIORITIZED for Transportation & Economic Investments

2002 - 2011

Designated GROWTH CENTERS LYNNWOOD

27 Regional Growth Centers

KIRKLAND

SEATTLE REDMOND

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 39

8 Manufacturing/ Industrial Centers RAINIER VALLEY is not designated for growth

BELLEVUE MERCER ISLAND

RENTON

BURIEN

LYNNWOOD

LINK LIGHT RAIL SOUND TRANSIT Express Bus Commuter Rail Light Rail

KIRKLAND

SEATTLE REDMOND

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 40

TAXING Authority

BELLEVUE MERCER ISLAND

ST2 Funds Central LINK Extension

RENTON

Access to LINK in Jurisdiction by 2030 70% of Residents 85% of Employees

BURIEN

Connecting GROWTH CENTERS

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 41

C E N T R A L L I N K

KIRKLAND

Northgate

SEATTLE

University Community REDMOND

First Hill/Capitol Hill

Downtown

BELLEVUE MERCER ISLAND

RAINIER VALLEY RENTON

BURIEN

SeaTac

Local JOB SECTORS Employment & Industry Trends for King County & the RAINIER VALLEY

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 42

METHODOLOGY: Location Quotients Shift Share Analysis Considering an interaction with the local workforce educational opportunities Mindful of regional policies & strategies for growth

Shift SHARE KING COUNTY - Strong Growth Areas

Seattle

Kirkland Belleve

Administration, Support, + 23% & Waste Management

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 43

Professional, Science & + 5.6% Technical Services

Renton Burien

Vashon Island

+ 8.8%

Educational Services

Kent

+ 42.2% Tacoma

Change Relative to National Levels

Information

+ 6.5%

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

2002 - 2011

Shift SHARE KING COUNTY - Behind in Other Areas

Seattle

Kirkland Belleve

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 44

Renton Burien

Vashon Island

- 18.7%

Transportation & Warehousing

Kent

- 9.5%

Manufacturing

Tacoma

Change Relative to National Levels

2002 - 2011

Location QUOTIENTS

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 45

9 8 1 0 8 HIGH LQ: Manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade

LOW LQ: Educational services, finance and insurance, health care and social assistance, information, professional, scientific and technical services

Location QUOTIENTS

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 46

9 8 1 1 8 HIGH LQ: Accommodation and food services, health care and social assistance, and arts, entertainment, & recreation

LOW LQ: Information, wholesale trade, professional, scientific, and technical services

Location QUOTIENTS

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 47

9 8 1 4 4 HIGH LQ: Construction, educational services, healthcare and social assistance, finance and insurance

LOW LQ: Transportation and warehousing

Location QUOTIENTS 2002 1.67

Manufacturing Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 48

Transportation & Warehousing

Professional & Scientific Services

3.79 0.82

0.28 3.00 0.52

0.65 0.37 0.44

2011 1.02 4.39 0.60

0.59 3.25 0.84

0.79 0.33 0.67

Change 0.65 + 0.60 0.22

+ 0.31 + + 0.25 0.32

+ 0.14 + 0.04 0.23

Interaction with EDUCATION Impact of Education on SEATTLE Future Job Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 49

Early Childhood K - 12 K-6 K-8 7-8 9 - 12 Post Secondary

Early Childhood EDUCATION IMPACTS on school-age children Improved cognitive growth, educational performance and grade retention Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 50

IMPACTS on adults Improved educational attainment, higher employment rates and earnings, decreased crime rates and use of social services

Early childhood education in the RAINIER VALLEY Family child care centers, child care centers, Head Start, ECEAP

K -12 DEMOGRAPHICS Race & Ethnicity in the RAINIER VALLEY District 7 Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 51

American Indian/Alaskan Native Asian/PaciďŹ c Islander African American Hispanic White 2 or more 1% 6% 12%

32%

13%

36%

Seattle Public Schools - District No. 7

Quality of EDUCATION

SEATTLE SEATTLE Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 52

SEATTLE

2012 2010 2009

Educational ATTAINMENT Estimated Annual On-Time Graduation Rates in the RAINIER VALLEY

FRANKLIN

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 53

CLEVELAND SOUTH LAKE RAINER BEACH 2007 - 2010

Impact of EDUCATION 2009

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 54

SEATTLE

Seattle Public Schools

2012

SEATTLE

Change

SEATTLE

Future WORKFORCE

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 55

PERCENT of RAINIER VALLEY STUDENTS pursuing 2 YEAR or 4 YEAR Post Secondary Education

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

SEATTLE CENTRAL

FRANKLIN

40 35 30

CLEVELAND

25 20

SOUTH SEATTLE

15 10 5 0 2005

2006

2007

Cleveland High School Rainier Beach High School

2008

2009

2010

2011

Franklin High School

RAINER BEACH

2005 - 2011

Future WORKFORCE 2 YEAR INSTITUTION: South Seattle Community College

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

SEATTLE CENTRAL

50 45 Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 56

40 35 30

FRANKLIN

25 20 15

CLEVELAND

10 5 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Cleveland HS

Franklin HS

Rainier Beach HS

SOUTH SEATTLE RAINER BEACH

2005 - 2011

Future WORKFORCE 2 YEAR INSTITUTION: Seattle Central Community College

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

SEATTLE CENTRAL

40 Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 57

35 30 25

FRANKLIN

20 15

CLEVELAND

10

SOUTH SEATTLE

5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Cleveland HS Rainier Beach HS

Franklin HS

RAINER BEACH

2005 - 2011

Future WORKFORCE 4 YEAR INSTITUTION: University of Washington

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

SEATTLE CENTRAL

40 Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 58

35 30 25

FRANKLIN

20 15

CLEVELAND

10

SOUTH SEATTLE

5 0 2005

2006

2007

2008

Cleveland High School

2009

2010

Franklin High School

2011

RAINER BEACH

Rainier Beach High School

2005 - 2011

Conditions in the RAINIER VALLEY Local economy is not strong

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 59

Policy concentrates job growth and manufacturing in Centers Reliable mobility options exist and are expanding

Direction for the RAINIER VALLEY BUILD LOCAL CAPACITY: Well Educated &

Local Workforce Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 60

Access to Opportunity (transportation, education, jobs, goods & services, etc) Self Advocacy to help provide the jobs and development of best fit for the community

THANKS!

Future Employment Opportunities in the RAINIER VALLEY | 61

Erin GENGO Elena HERNANDEZ Aaron LYKKEN Lauren MATHISEN Catherine SILVA