CA R M E L R E A LT Y C O M PA N Y
Q1 2022 Market Report
C A R M E L- B Y-T H E -S E A , C A R M E L P O I N T, G R E AT E R C A R M E L , C A R M E L- B Y-T H E -S E A , C A R M E L P O I N T, G R E AT E R C A R M E L , C A R M E L VA L L E Y, P E B B L E B E A C H , C A R M E L H I G H L A N D S , C A R M E L VA L L E Y, P E B B L E B E A C H , C A R M E L H I G H L A N D S , B I G S U R & S O U T H C O A S T, M O N T E R E Y & D E L R E Y O A K S , B I G SU R & SO UTH COA ST PA C I F I C G R O V E Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O.■ Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com | DRE#01871627 Dolores South of Seventh P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
A C or n e r s t on e i n Lu x u ry R e a l E s tat e f or O v e r O n e Hu n dr e d Ye a r s
Letter From Courtney Dear Friends, Happy Spring! On the pages ahead, you will be able to dive into the Q1 data for our various neighborhoods. Overall, extremely tight inventory is affecting everything. Sales volume is down with continued pressure on pricing. Buyers have few options and after 18 months of low supply, they are frustrated. To be a successful buyer in this market takes guts as the winning bids tend to be non-contingent and all cash. Here are some key takeaways from the report: •
While we had significant volume over $10M, the under $2M market is disappearing.
•
Buyers may find themselves most successful in Carmel Valley which has the highest level of inventory available at a wider range of prices.
•
Pacific Grove buyers need the most patience as the city has the highest percentage of sales over the list price.
•
Activity in greater Carmel focused under $3M with nothing selling over $5M.
•
The average sales price in Pebble almost doubled from 2021, to $8.6M!
•
If you are looking in Carmel-by-the-Sea, it’ll take at least $2.4M to get on the outskirts of this highly desirable locale.
It’s pretty sweet to be a seller these days but buyers still know when a house is overpriced. 76% of homes sold in Q1 closed within a month. Of these homes, the sellers received an average of 3% over their asking price. But when a home sat on the market longer than 30 days, it took about 3 months to sell and averaged 10% under asking.
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
These pages will help you stay informed. I am always just a phone call away. Best,
Courtney Jones
2
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
My Significant Sales of Q1 2022
1440 Lisbon Lane, Pebble Beach ■ SP: $4,600,000 Represented Buyer
Monte Verde 5 NE 4th, Carmel-by-the-Sea ■ SP: $3,525,000 Represented Seller
26253 Atherton Place, Carmel SP: $2.8M Represented Buyer
Q1 2022 MARKET REPORT
Camino Real 4 NE 8th, Carmel-by-the-Sea ■ SP: $4,550,000 Represented Seller
199 Van Ess Way, Carmel ■ SP: $3,025,000 Represented Seller
153 El Caminito Road, Carmel Valley SP: $2.25M Represented Buyer
11 Wild Boar, Carmel SP: $1.04M Represented Buyer
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
3
Market Overview
A
fter a record-breaking year in 2021, real estate sales activity on the Monterey Peninsula continued to deliver strong results in the first quarter of 2022. The Peninsula overall saw transaction volume decrease 27% due to less inventory for sale. However, continued strong demand drove average sale prices higher and the mix of higher priced home sales also increased. This contributed to strong quarterly sales dollar volume in Q1, 2022 that was 7% higher than Q1 of last year and just 12% lower than Q4. With demand from buyers remaining very high, we experienced a healthy increase in average sales prices. Eight out of the nine markets we track in this report experienced an increase in average sale price over both Q1 and Q4 of last year. As previously stated, this was also a result of additional higher priced homes selling. There were three homes in Pebble Beach and one in Carmel Highlands that sold for over $20M in the quarter. Carmel Realty Company produced a benchmark sale in Pebble Beach setting the newest highest priced record sale ever at $36,500,000. Each of the nine markets we track in this report showed growth and volatility on nearly all key indicators from quarter to quarter and year over year. For example, the average sales price increased 104% in Pebble Beach, 132% in Carmel Highlands/South Coast and 29% in Monterey in Q1, 2022. Days on market across the whole Peninsula was down to an average of 26 days with an average sales price of $2,205,094, which is 28% higher than the average sales price for the Peninsula in Q1, 2021. Inventory remains very low with only 145 active listings on the market at the end of the quarter compared to 220 actives at the end of Q1 in 2021. Behind these results are numerous informative drivers supporting agent and buying/selling decisions. This dynamic has changed the way Real Estate is selling in our market. Data analytics have become essential to delivering value for buyers and sellers. Our agents have a dedicated team of local analytics experts evaluating micro-level variables which help clients make informed decisions when buying or selling in this environment. The following quarterly report highlights the dynamic nature of our market and provides insight into pricing, volume, inventory, and other key factors that make up our current real estate environment. We hope you will find this report informative. As always, please be sure to contact us if there is anything we can do to help you, or your friends and family, with real estate plans in our marketplace.
4
Table of Contents Table of Contents
Q1 2022 MARKET REPORT
Carmel-by-the-Sea &&Carmel ..................6 6 Carmel-by-the-Sea Carmel-by-the-Sea & CarmelPoint Point ������������ Carmel Point ........................................... 6 Greater ....................................................8 8 GreaterCarmel Carmel ���������������������������������������������� The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point TheGreater areas outsideCarmel of Carmel-by-the ....................................... Sea & Carmel Point 8 The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Carmel .....................................................1010 CarmelValley Valley ����������������������������������������������� Carmel Valley......................................... 10 Including The Santa Lucia Preserve Pebble .......................................................1212 PebbleBeach Beach �������������������������������������������������� Pebble Beach........................................... 12 Carmel CarmelHighlands, Highlands,Big Sur & South Coast .... 14 Big Sur & Highlands, South Coast �������������������������������� 14 Carmel Monterey ReyCoast Oaks................................. Big Sur&&Del South .......................... 14 16 Pacific Grove ����������������������������������������������� 16 Pacific Grove ...................................................... 18 Monterey ������������������������������������������������������ 18
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
5
C A R M E L - B Y-T H E - S E A
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
Q
uarter 1 of 2022 sales results were well ahead of Q1 of 2021. However these results were meaningfully behind the strong results in Q4 of last year in total units sold, average sales price, and total dollar volume. The average sales price of over $3.2M this quarter is right on par with the average price we saw over the course of 2021. Inventory was very tight all quarter with only 1 month of inventory available throughout the quarter. At the end of the quarter there were only 10 homes listed for sale in Carmel-by-the-Sea.
SALES BY SEGMENT
<$1M | 0 $1M-2M | 8 $2M-3M | 13 $3M-5M | 10 $5M+ | 6
6
$3,246,718 14.7% vs Q4 2021 24.8% vs Q1 2021 SALES VOLUME
$120.1M 34.2% vs Q4 2021 31.9% vs Q1 2021
DAYS ON MARKET
16% 27%
16.2% vs Q4 2021 63.2% vs Q1 2021
22% 35%
31
UNITS SOLD
37
22.9% vs Q4 2021 5.7% vs Q1 2021
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
Q1 2022 MARKET REPORT
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $4M
40
$3M
30
$2M
20
$1M
10
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Average
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
50
$190M
$4M
40
$143M
$3M
30 $2M
$95M 20
$1M
$48M
10
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
7
G R E AT E R C A R M E L
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
S
ales results in Q1 of 2022 for The Greater Carmel area were down from the same quarter last year. Total market volume and the number of units sold was lower, most likely because of very tight inventory. Average sale price was lower than Q1 of last year but higher than Q4 of last year. This is likely a result of the mix of homes sold, not an indicator of lower prices, as all other indicators continue to demonstrate values increasing in this market. Homes continued to sell quickly with a record low of only 20 days on market over the quarter.
SALES BY SEGMENT
<$1M | 6 $1M-$2M | 6 $2M-$3M | 7 $3M-$5M | 3 $5M+ | 0
8
$1,869,295 4.2% vs Q4 2021 19.9% vs Q1 2021
$41.1M
SALES VOLUME
4.2% vs Q4 2021 29.5% vs Q1 2021
DAYS ON MARKET
14% 32%
59.2% vs Q4 2021 64.9% vs Q1 2021
27% 27%
20
UNITS SOLD
22
no change vs Q4 2021 12% vs Q1 2021
Greater Carmel
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $2.4M
60
$1.8M
45
$1.2M
30
$600K
15
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Average
Q1 2022 MARKET REPORT
The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$60M
28
$45M
21
$30M
14
$15M
7
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $2.4M
$1.8M
$1.2M
$600K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
9
C A R M E L VA L L E Y
Market Update
A
fter a record setting 2020 and 2021, Carmel Valley’s sales numbers normalized to levels similar to pre-Covid years. Q1 of 2022 showed tight inventory, reducing total sales to 47 for the quarter (20 less than any quarter last year). Thanks to continued high demand from buyers, the average sales price remained high at over $1.8M. Total sales volume was down substantially (37.8%), because of the fewer number of homes sold. 31 homes remained on the market, signaling that there could be an uptick of sales coming in quarter two, 2022.
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 13 $1M-2M | 18 $2M-3M | 11 $3M-5M | 3 $5M+ | 2
10
38%
28%
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$1,822,911 1.9% vs Q4 2021 7.3% vs Q1 2021 SALES VOLUME
$85.7M 37.8% vs Q4 2021 26.5% vs Q1 2021
DAYS ON MARKET
17.9% vs Q4 2021 37.3% vs Q1 2021
23% 6% 4%
32
UNITS SOLD
47
39% vs Q4 2021 31.9% vs Q1 2021
Carmel Valley
Including The Santa Lucia Preserve
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $2.1M
60
$1.6M
45
$1.1M
30
$525K
15
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Average
Q1 2022 MARKET REPORT
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$170M
90
$128M
68
$85M
45
$43M
23
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $2.1M
$1.6M
$1.1M
$525K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
11
P E B B L E B E AC H
Market Update
P
ebble Beach experienced a quarter unlike any we have seen before in Q1. The number of homes sold was down meaningfully from Q1 and Q4 of last year, however due to the sale of several higher priced homes, total dollar value was up 40% from Q4 and 16% from Q1 of 2021. The 25 homes sold had a record high average sale price of $8.6M, over 100% up from both Q1 and Q4 of 2021. This was due to six sales over $10M, three of which topped $20M. Taking out the three $20+M sales, average sales price would still be over $5.6M for the quarter. Eight out of 20 homes remaining at the end of Q1 are listed for over $10M, so we expect sales prices to remain high moving into Q2.
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 0 $1M-$2M | 3 $2M-$3M | 3 $3M-$5M | 8 $5M+ | 11
12
44%
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
118.7% vs Q4 2021 104% vs Q1 2021 SALES VOLUME
$215.7M 40.2% vs Q4 2021 15.9% vs Q1 2021
DAYS ON MARKET
45
2.2% vs Q4 2021 12.5% vs Q1 2021
12% 12%
32%
$8,627,284
UNITS SOLD
25
35.9% vs Q4 2021 43.2% vs Q1 2021
Q1 2022 MARKET REPORT
Pebble Beach
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $9M
50
$6.8M
38
$4.5M
25
$2.3M
13
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Average
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
50
$220M
$9M
40
$165M
$6.8M
30 $4.5M
$110M 20
$2.3M
$55M
10 Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
13
CARMEL HIGHLANDS
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
C
armel Highlands and Big Sur Coast experienced another strong quarter. There were 12 sales in Q1 of 2022 which is consistent with 2021’s quarterly transaction numbers. Total dollar volume was $69M well ahead of last year’s numbers. There were two high-priced sales, and nine of the 12 sales were over $3M. Homes sold averaged just 33 days on market, 67% less than usual, which illustrates the increased popularity of this area and together with the mix of homes sold, has driven the average sale price up to $5.8M.
$5,808,333 42.1% vs Q4 2021 132.3% vs Q1 2021 SALES VOLUME
$69.7M 21.8% vs Q4 2021 132.3% vs Q1 2021
DAYS ON MARKET SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 2 $1M-2M | 1 $2M-3M | 0 $3M-5M | 5 $5M+ | 4
14
42% 8%
56% vs Q4 2021 67% vs Q1 2021
33% 17%
33
UNITS SOLD
12
14.3% vs Q4 2021 no change vs Q1 2021
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q1 2022 MARKET REPORT
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market
$6M
140
$4.5M
105
$3M
70
$1.5M
35
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Average
Q4 2021
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022
Q1 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$72M
15
$54M
11
$36M
8
$18M
4
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $6M
$4.5M
$3M
$1.5M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
15
PAC I F I C G R OV E
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
T
he demand for living in Pacific Grove continues to be extraordinary. Q1 of 2022 set a record for average sales price at $1.7M (up 7.4% from last quarter) and median sales price at $1.6M (up 28% from last quarter). Last year there were 16 homes that sold in the market for under $800K, there were zero this quarter. Low inventory levels have driven transaction volume down considerably. In 2021 Pacific Grove averaged 56 home sales per quarter, this last quarter there were only 30. At the end of the quarter Pacific Grove had only 12 active listings.
$1,703,677 7.4% vs Q4 2021 8.5% vs Q1 2021 SALES VOLUME
$51.1M 28.4% vs Q4 2021 38.6% vs Q1 2021
DAYS ON MARKET SALES BY SEGMENT <$800K | 0 $800K-$1.2M | 10 $1.2M-$2M | 12 $2M-$3M | 7 $3M+ | 1
16 18
40%
10.3% vs Q4 2021 20% vs Q1 2021
23% 3% 33%
32
UNITS SOLD
30
33.3% vs Q4 2021 43.4% vs Q1 2021
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q1 2022 MARKET REPORT
Pacific Grove
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $1.8M
40
$1.3M
30
$900K
20
$450K
10
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Average
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$100M
70
$75M
53
$50M
35
$25M
18
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $1.8M
$1.3M
$900K
$450K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
17 19
MO N T E R E Y & D E L R E Y OA K S
Market Update
T
he Monterey market set a new high in average sales price at $1.24M, up almost 30% from Q1 of 2021. Median sales price also topped $1M for the first time. However, we are beginning to see the effect of very limited inventory of homes for sale. There were only 92 sales this quarter which was the least we’ve seen in Monterey since Q1 of 2021. At the end of the quarter there were only 24 active listings suggesting that volume will likely continue to track behind 2021 in number of sales.
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
1.1% vs Q4 2021 29.6% vs Q1 2021 SALES VOLUME
<$800K | 28 $800K-$1.2M | 29 $1.2M-$2M | 23 $2M-$3M | 7 $3M+ | 5
18 16
32%
DAYS ON MARKET
23
23.3% vs Q4 2021 28.1% vs Q1 2021
8% 30%
$114.1M 14.7% vs Q4 2021 38.6% vs Q1 2021
25% SALES BY SEGMENT
$1,240,667
5%
UNITS SOLD
92
15.6% vs Q4 2021 7% vs Q1 2021
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Q1 2022 MARKET REPORT
Monterey & Del Rey Oaks
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price
35
$1.3M
28
$975K
21 $650K
14 $325K
7
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Average
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$140M
110
$105M
83
$70M
55
$35M
28
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $1.3M
$975K
$650K
$325K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
2021
Q3
Q4
2022
Q2
2021 Average 2022 Average
Q3
Q4
2021 Median 2022 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
19 17
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
A C or n e r s t on e i n Lu x u ry R e a l E s tat e f or O v e r O n e Hu n dr e d Ye a r s