2022 Annual Market Report - Courtney Jones

Letter From Courtney

Happy New Year!

Let’s start the new year off with a quick look back at 2022.

The following pages detail how our various market segments fared last year–which certainly wasn’t as bad as the media portrayed. We saw a very strong first half of the year, but volume was down in the second half–while buyers sat on the sidelines watching interest rates and the stock market. The good news is that while the number of transactions was down 32% year over year and the total sales volume was also down 25% in the second half of the year, pricing is now holding steady. Overall, pricing is down about 9%–but because inventory is down 50% and we have continued demand from Bay Area buyers, pricing has now leveled off. And this is after our market experienced extraordinary growth from 2020 through June 2022. As 2023 starts, we’re trending closer to how our market looked in 2019. Instead of multiple offers and sales over asking, we’re looking at one offer slightly under asking. I welcome the change. It’s smart for buyers to have options and the time to evaluate their decisions. It’s fun to negotiate again. A better equilibrium between buyer and seller is a positive thing–and I look forward to helping you navigate the real estate market in 2023.

I wish you a big year of health, happiness and prosperity!

Best,

Courtney Jones

Courtney Jones

Market Overview

Following two years of extraordinary growth, the real estate market on the Monterey Peninsula has normalized. e number of transactions, total dollar volume and average sale prices all hit record highs beginning in the second half of 2020 and continuing into the rst half of 2022. However, beginning in the summer of 2022, the number of transactions and total sales dollar volume has returned for the most part to pre-COVID levels. e positive news is that while transaction volume is down signi cantly from the previous two-year peak, home values on the Peninsula are holding up nicely. In this regard, once again, our market is greatly outperforming most markets across the country.

Following two years of extraordinary growth, the real estate market on the Monterey Peninsula has normalized. e number of transactions, total dollar volume and average sale prices all hit record highs beginning in the second half of 2020 and continuing into the rst half of 2022. However, beginning in the summer of 2022, the number of transactions and total sales dollar volume has returned for the most part to pre-COVID levels. e positive news is that while transaction volume is down signi cantly from the previous two-year peak, home values on the Peninsula are holding up nicely. In this regard, once again, our market is greatly outperforming most markets across the country.

Across the markets we track here on the Peninsula, the number of units sold was down 31% in 2022 over 2021, and total sales dollar volume was down 25% in the same period. With the slowdown in sales beginning in summer, the Q4 year-over-year comparison is even more dramatic. e number of sales in Q4 2022 was 235, compared to 478 homes being sold in Q4 2021. Total sales dollar volume in the market in Q4 2022 compared to 2021 was nearly cut in half as well.

While we are clearly being a ected by economic pressure, our market was also down in sales due to historic low inventory levels. With continued healthy demand to live on the Peninsula, home values have remained strong. While it is di cult to measure value in real time, our analytics team has run a variety of analysis that all point to pricing holding up much better than transaction volume. We believe that home prices remain steady in some markets across the Peninsula and are down just a bit in others. Considering the value appreciation we experienced in home prices in 2020 and 2021, any small correction we experience now will be much less, and home values will remain well ahead of where they were prior to the pandemic related spike.

also sales volume. will to are informed to following report breaks out seven of the markets we track with additional performance

With so many drivers a ecting our market right now, it is essential to work with an experienced and informed agent. Our agents have extensive hands-on local knowledge about every market across the Peninsula. Moreover, they are supported by a dedicated marketing and analytics team that allows for clients to make informed decisions and to maximize value when buying or selling. e following report breaks out ve of the markets we track with additional performance detail. We hope you will nd this report informative. As always, please be sure to contact us if there is anything we can do to help you, or your friends and family, with real estate plans in our marketplace.

Quarter 4 of 2022 in Carmel-by-theSea experienced what many areas saw in terms of number of sales falling. Just 19 homes sold during the quarter, down 32% from Q3 2022 and 60% from Q4 of 2021. Although the number of sales fell, the sales mix involved more higher priced sales than usual. is resulted in a record-high average sales price of $4.6M. Even with this high average price, total sales volume was at its lowest point since Q2 of 2020.

CARMEL-BY-THE-SEA

Greater Carmel had just 10 sales in the quarter and 73 for all of 2022, the lowest of any full year since 2011. 59 average days on market was over double what we have seen in the area over the past three quarters. Total sales volume of $166M during 2022 was down from the last two years, but still up substantially over every year prior to 2020.

Carmel Valley experienced a di cult fourth quarter with only 34 sales, lower than every quarter since Q1 of 2019. For the year, units sold was down 36.5% and total sales volume down 34.4% versus 2021. While we saw average sale price come down a bit near the end of the year, Carmel Valley still set a yearly record in the category, topping $1.9M for the rst time.

The sales mix in Pebble Beach turned up several higher price sales in Q4 of 2022 versus the previous quarter, resulting in average sales price increasing 29.3% quarter over quarter. Seven out of 22 homes sold in the quarter topped the $5M mark. For the year, Pebble Beach saw only 94 homes sold. is was the rst time under 100 sales for the year since 2011. Average sale price for the year was $5.6M, up over 31% from 2021. Total sales volume for the year was $532M, down 20% from last year, and yet the second highest on record.

PEBBLE BEACH

With only four sales and $14M in total sales volume during Q4, this area had its worst statistical quarter since the pandemic. For the year, average sale price was up over 25% versus 2021, the second highest increase of any are we track, behind only Pebble Beach. To begin 2023, 16 homes remain on the market, showing signs that this coming quarter and year has potential for an increase in sales.

Paci c Grove had a strong quarter compared to most other areas. e area was up in average sales price, units sold, and total volume versus last quarter. e price top in PG seems to have been met in Q1 of 2022, with the average sales price now oating just over $1.5M, up 1.6% from last quarter and up 3% from Q3 2021. 48 sales are the most we have seen in the area since Q3 of last year. With 25 active listings moving into Q4, Paci c Grove has a chance to replicate its strong Q3 next quarter. Given all of the volatile dynamics in real estate overall, this market is in a nice balance at this time.

MONTEREY & DEL REY OAKS

The Monterey area saw a huge decrease in number of sales, landing at 55 compared with 70, 92, and 109 sales the three prior quarters. Even with fewer sales due to strong demand, average prices remain high at $1,288,004 down just 2% from Q2 2022. Total sales volume (dollars) is on pace to match 2020 and fall about 25% below the record year of 2021. is market, like most in our area, proves that while transactions and total sales dollars can decrease over 20% each, pricing remains strong.

PRICE