CA R M E L R E A LT Y C O M PA N Y
2021 Annual Market Report
C A R M E L- B Y-T H E -S E A , C A R M E L P O I N T, G R E AT E R C A R M E L , C A R M E L- B Y-T H E -S E A , C A R M E L P O I N T, G R E AT E R C A R M E L , C A R M E L VA L L E Y, P E B B L E B E A C H , C A R M E L H I G H L A N D S , C A R M E L VA L L E Y, P E B B L E B E A C H , C A R M E L H I G H L A N D S , B I G S U R & S O U T H C O A S T, M O N T E R E Y & D E L R E Y O A K S , B I G SU R & SO UTH COA ST PA C I F I C G R O V E Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O.■ Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com | DRE#01871627 Dolores South of Seventh P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
A C or n e r s t on e i n Lu x u ry R e a l E s tat e f or O v e r O n e Hu n dr e d Ye a r s
Letter From Courtney Dear Friends, Happy New Year! 2021 was a record breaking year in real estate. We hit new sales records across the board here on the Monterey Peninsula due to limited inventory, continued demand and more sales in the higher price categories. Overall, volume was up 25% for the year. With the increased pressure buyers had to get a house under contract, we also saw more escrows fall apart than in a typical year. The next few pages dive into each market category, but I wanted to highlight a few points that stood out to me. •
Most buyers start their search in the highly coveted neighborhoods of Carmel-by-the-Sea. They may eventually move out to more affordable neighborhoods, but there is always demand here. We saw the highest average and median sales prices since 2007 and over 27% of homes sold over asking. At the start of the year, there were 34 homes for sale and we ended the year with only 5.
•
Greater Carmel came down a bit in terms of pricing and volume as the market reacted to limited inventory in the second half of the year. There were no sales over $5M in the last quarter and we ended the year with only 4 active listings. Overall, the average sales price was up 11.6% from 2020 and 32% of the homes sold above asking.
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
•
Carmel Valley led the market with the most units sold in 2021. 21% of the homes sold above the list price, which is the lowest percentage of any market due to the fact that there was a bit more inventory. Sales volume was up 35% but activity held steady within the standard price segments so we didn’t see as much price appreciation as we did in other markets. We expect to see those price increases in 2022.
•
Pebble Beach had a significant year. The average sales price and volume was the highest in 15 years. Two homes sold over $30M which was the first time we’ve reached that price point since 2014. Marketing time decreased dramatically with 27% of homes selling over asking. The most active price segment remains $1-5M.
•
Monterey hit its highest average sales price in history, up 9% from 2020. Volume was also at an all time high and 41% of homes sold over the asking price. 95% of sales were under $3M, making it an affordable option for buyers.
•
Pacific Grove struggled with limited inventory all year. The city started the year with 30 active listings and ended with 6. This low inventory drove prices up more than any other market and 41% of homes in PG sold over asking.
•
Carmel Highlands also saw the highest average sales price since 2007, up 11% from 2020. There was considerably more demand in the Highlands than in years past and we expect that to continue.
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
Looking ahead to 2022, a few things are certain. Tight inventory is here to stay. Going into 2021, we thought inventory levels were low. Now we know what low is. We may experience interest rate increases this year, but that rarely affects markets like Carmel. We expect demand to continue, prices to stay high and competition to be fierce. Please don’t hesitate to reach out should you have any questions navigating this market. Wishing you a healthy and happy year ahead. Best,
Courtney Jones 2
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
My Significant Sales of Q4 2021
2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
1584 Griffin Road, Pebble Beach SP: $8.225M Represented Seller
Casanova 3 NW 11th, Carmel-by-the-Sea SP: $5.25M Represented Seller
3055 Lorca Lane, Carmel SP: $2.85M Represented Buyer
284 Central Avenue, Pacific Grove SP: $2.8M Represented Buyer
24936 Valley Way, Carmel SP: $2.7M Represented Seller
380 El Caminito Road, Carmel Valley SP: $2.225M Represented Seller
1235 Aguajito Road, Monterey SP: $1.782M Represented Seller
26 Live Oak, Carmel Valley SP: $1.725M Represented Buyer
411 Evergreen Road, Pacific Grove SP: $1.551M Represented Seller
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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Market Overview
A
fter a record-breaking year in Real Estate Sales activity on the Monterey Peninsula in 2020, many were concerned how the market would perform in 2021. Extremely strong demand throughout all four quarters of 2021 kept volume levels and prices high, contributing to a record-breaking year. Total volume in 2021 across the Peninsula increased 25% over 2020 reaching just over $3.25B. The total number of units sold increased by 7% in 2021 and the average sale price grew nearly 17% across the Peninsula. Each of the nine markets we track in this report showed growth and volatility on nearly all key indicators from quarter to quarter and year over year. For example, the average sale price increased 32% in Pebble Beach, 27% in Pacific Grove and 11% in Monterey in 2021. Forty-one percent of all sales for the year went at over asking price on average across all markets. However, in Seaside 50% went over asking and in Carmel Valley only 21% went over asking. Behind those results are numerous informative drivers supporting agent and buying/ selling decisions. This dynamic has changed the way Real Estate is sold in our market. Data analytics have become essential to delivering value for buyers and sellers. Our agents have a dedicated team of local analytics experts evaluating micro-level variables that help clients make informed decisions when buying or selling in this environment. The following annual report highlights the dynamic nature of our market and provides insight into pricing, volume, inventory and other key factors that make up our current real estate environment. We hope you will find this report informative. As always, please be sure to contact us if there is anything we can do to help you, or your friends and family, with real estate plans in our marketplace.
4
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Table of Contents Table of Contents
2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
Carmel-by-the-Sea &&Carmel ..................6 6 Carmel-by-the-Sea Carmel-by-the-Sea & CarmelPoint Point ������������ Carmel Point ........................................... 6 Greater ....................................................8 8 GreaterCarmel Carmel ���������������������������������������������� The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point TheGreater areas outsideCarmel of Carmel-by-the ....................................... Sea & Carmel Point 8 The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Carmel .....................................................1010 CarmelValley Valley ����������������������������������������������� Carmel Valley......................................... 10 Including The Santa Lucia Preserve Pebble .......................................................1212 PebbleBeach Beach �������������������������������������������������� Pebble Beach........................................... 12 Carmel CarmelHighlands, Highlands,Big Sur & South Coast .... 14 Big Sur & Highlands, South Coast �������������������������������� 14 Carmel Monterey ReyCoast Oaks................................. Big Sur&&Del South .......................... 14 16 Pacific Grove ����������������������������������������������� 16 Pacific Grove ...................................................... 18 Monterey ������������������������������������������������������ 18
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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C A R M E L - B Y-T H E - S E A
Market Update
C
armel-by-the-Sea continued to experience an increase in home values as a result of very low inventory of homes available for sale. The average sales price reached an all-time high of $3.8M over the 4th quarter. There were only five listings remaining active at the end of the year. Sales volume in Carmel-by-the-Sea also climbed to a near record high of $182M in Q4 2021, a sizable increase of 54% over the previous quarter. Sales volume overall for 2021 beat out 2020 by 14%.
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
20.8% 2021 vs 2020 26.1% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
SALES VOLUME
<$1M | 0 $1M-2M | 9 $2M-3M | 10 $3M-5M | 18 $5M+ | 11
6
$182.6M 14% 2021 vs 2020 8.1% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
23% SALES BY SEGMENT
$3,804,392
48.2% 2021 vs 2020 2.8% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
19% 38%
21%
37
UNITS SOLD
48
5.6% 2021 vs 2020 14.3% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $4M
40
$3M
30
$2M
20
$1M
10
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Average
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
$200M
80
$4M
$150M
60
$3M
$100M
40
$50M
20
$2M
$1M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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G R E AT E R C A R M E L
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
T
he Greater Carmel market experienced a reduction in average sale price from the highs of Q4 2020 and Q1 2021. Average sales prices have dropped to just under $1.8M this quarter as a result of fewer high-priced homes selling in the last three months of the year. For the entire year of 2021 average sale prices remained slightly over $2M. Demand has remained strong in this area with 97 homes changing hands throughout 2021, consistent with the 101 sold in 2020. Inventory in this market has dried up, with just 4 active listings at the end of the year, down 77% from yearend 2020.
SALES BY SEGMENT
<$1M | 5 $1M-2M | 9 $2M-3M | 4 $3M-5M | 4 $5M+ | 0
8
$1,794,581 11.6% 2021 vs 2020 19.5% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 SALES VOLUME
$39.5M
7.2% 2021 vs 2020 42.8% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
18% 18% 41%
49
27.4% 2021 vs 2020 31% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
23% UNITS SOLD
22
4% 2021 vs 2020 29% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Greater Carmel
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $2.4M
80
$1.8M
60
$1.2M
40
$600K
20
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Average
2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
The areas outside of Carmel-by-the Sea & Carmel Point
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$70M
40
$53M
30
$35M
20
$18M
10
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $2.4M
$1.8M
$1.2M
$600K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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C A R M E L VA L L E Y
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
C
armel Valley sales activity increased at an incredible rate during 2021. The total number of sales for 2021 reached 299, an 18% increase over 2020 and 50% increase in the last two years. This larger number of sales combined with a 15% increase in average sale price, resulted in $551M in total sales volume during 2021. Quarter 4 of 2021, showed a lower average sales price than Q3 due to only two $5M+ sales in the market, which is about half the number high-priced homes sold over the previous 3 quarters.
$1,788,402 14.9% 2021 vs 2020 16.3% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 SALES VOLUME
$137.7M
35.7% 2021 vs 2020 14.8% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
<$1M | 23 $1M-2M | 31 $2M-3M | 13 $3M-5M | 8 $5M+ | 2
10
32.3% 2021 vs 2020 32.8% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
17% 10% 3%
SALES BY SEGMENT
40%
30%
39
UNITS SOLD
77
18.2% 2021 vs 2020 1.3% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Carmel Valley
Including The Santa Lucia Preserve
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $2.1M
60
$1.6M
45
$1.1M
30
$525K
15
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Average
2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$180M
100
$135M
75
$90M
50
$45M
25
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $2.1M
$1.6M
$1.1M
$525K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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P E B B L E B E AC H
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
P
ebble Beach had a healthy sales volume this quarter selling 39 homes for $153M in value. This volume is 28% higher than the previous quarter but still 16% below 4th quarter of last year. For the year, sales volume of $665M represents a record year for Pebble Beach, 33% above 2020 which was on its own a record year as well. The average sales price in Pebble Beach for the year was the highest on record at $4.3M, a 32% increase over 2020. Inventory is very tight in this market as well with just 18 homes currently listed for sale compared to 42 at this same time last year.
$3,945,114 32.6% 2021 vs 2020 19.9% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 SALES VOLUME
$153.9M
33.4% 2021 vs 2020 16.5% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
<$1M | 3 $1M-2M | 13 $2M-3M | 8 $3M-5M | 8 $5M+ | 7
12
41.1% 2021 vs 2020 13.2% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
33%
SALES BY SEGMENT
8% 18%
21% 21%
46
UNITS SOLD
39
0.7% 2021 vs 2020 30.4% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
Pebble Beach
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $5M
60
$3.8M
45
$2.5M
30
$1.3M
15
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Average
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$220M
60
$165M
45
$110M
30
$55M
15
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $5M
$3.8M
$2.5M
$1.3M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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CARMEL HIGHLANDS
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
F
or the 10-year period leading up to 2020, the Carmel Highlands, Big Sur, and South Coast market averaged 13 home sales per year. This year there were 54 homes sold, nearly matching the record of 56 homes sold in 2020. Total sales volume topped $200M during 2021 for the first time. The average sale prices remained strong at over $4M for the third straight quarter. This region, known for its high-priced sales along Highway 1, did see four sales over $5M during Q4 and 14 sales over $5M in 2021. At the end of the year there were 17 homes listed for sale compared to 31 at this same time last year.
$4,087,216 11.4% 2021 vs 2020 22.6% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 SALES VOLUME
$57.2M
7.4% 2021 vs 2020 9.7% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
29%
SALES BY SEGMENT <$1M | 2 $1M-2M | 3 $2M-3M | 2 $3M-5M | 3 $5M+ | 4
14
21% 14%
9.7% 2021 vs 2020 15.7% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
14% 21%
75
UNITS SOLD
14 3.6% 2021 vs 2020 26.3% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price $5M
140
$3.8M
105
$2.5M
70
$1.3M
35
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Average
Q3 2021
Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Q4 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
30
$90M
$7M
$5.3M
$68M 20
$3.5M
$45M
10
$1.8M
$23M
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
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PAC I F I C G R OV E
Market Update
P
acific Grove had another very strong quarter contributing to an unprecedented 2021. Sales volume hit a record $337M for the year climbing 39% between 2020 and 2021. Limited inventory and extremely high demand elevated prices to record highs in average sale price and median sale price. Average sale price rose 27% from under $1.2M in 2020 to over $1.5M in 2021. Our internal data shows that 41% of the sales in this market in 2021 went for over asking price. As of December 31, 2021 there were only 6 properties on the market, down 80% from year-end 2020. With demand remaining high we expect continued upward pricing pressure and a multiple offer environment for at least the next few quarters.
SALES BY SEGMENT < $800k | 4 $800k - 1.2M | 16 $1.2M - 2M | 17 $2M - 3M | 4 $3M+ | 4
16 18
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
$1,586,464 27.1% 2021 vs 2020 21.9% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 SALES VOLUME
$71.4M 38.9% 2021 vs 2020 12.9% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
9% 9% 9% 38% 36%
DAYS ON MARKET
29
31.7% 2021 vs 2020 34.1% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 UNITS SOLD
45
9.3% 2021 vs 2020 28.6% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
Pacific Grove
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price
50
$1.6M
40
$1.2M
30 $800K
20 $400K
10
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Average
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$100M
80
$75M
60
$50M
40
$25M
20
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter $1.6M
$1.2M
$800K
$400K
Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
17 19
MO N T E R E Y & D E L R E Y OA K S
AVERAGE SELLING PRICE
Market Update
T
he Monterey and Del Rey Oaks market has been active all year long. The 109 sales that took place in Q4 of this year contributed to the region having its strongest year on record with 412 sales in 2021. The total volume in the market hit a record high of $473M up 34% over the previous year, and the average sale price hit a record high in 2021 at $1.15M. In Q4 alone the average sale price was even higher at $1.22M as a result of more homes selling in $3M+ price range. Demand was high and the pace of these sales was fast, with an average of only 26 days on the market per sale. Inventory has started to dip, but the Monterey market remains healthy and primed for a great 2022.
9.4% 2021 vs 2020 13.3% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 SALES VOLUME
< $800k | 34 $800k - 1.2M | 36 $1.2M - 2M | 25 $2M - 3M | 7 $3M+ | 7
18 16
23%
DAYS ON MARKET
6% 31%
33%
$133.8M 34.9% 2021 vs 2020 14.4% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
6%
SALES BY SEGMENT
$1,227,368
30
39.5% 2021 vs 2020 3.4% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 UNITS SOLD
109
23.4% 2021 vs 2020 0.9% Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
2021 ANNUAL MARKET REPORT
Monterey & Del Rey Oaks
Days on Market
Average vs Median Sales Price
35
$1.3M
28
$975K
21 $650K
14 $325K
7
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Average
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
110
$140M
$1.3M
88
$105M
$975K
66 $650K
$70M 44
$325K
$35M
22 Q1
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
Q2
2020 Average 2021 Average
Q3
Q4
2020 Median 2021 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
19 17
Courtney Jones REALTOR® | DRE#01806907
831.233.4839
Courtney@CarmelRealtyCompany.com www.CourtneyGJones.com
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 | 831.622.1000 ■ CarmelRealtyCompany.com
A C or n e r s t on e i n Lu x u ry R e a l E s tat e f or O v e r O n e Hu n dr e d Ye a r s