November 2013
strategic research report
longevity and the future of retirement John D. Curry Senior Director, CAPTRUST Marketing
A quick googling of the term longevity — meaning long life — yields some interesting results. One article spotlights residents of the Greek island of Ikaria, one of the so-called “blue zones”— small areas around the world where residents frequently outlive their life expectancy by more than a decade.1 Another highlights Texas centenarian Pearl Cantrell, who swears by her daily dose of bacon as a contributor to her long life. “It’s got to be crispy,” she told a recent interviewer.2 A third features genius inventor and entrepreneur Ray Kurzweil, who plans to live forever with the help of 150 pills a day and a supercomputer backup of his brain.3 As interesting — and quirky — as these stories are, seeing them merely as curiosities may cause us to ignore evidence that increased longevity is already underway and that we may enjoy surprisingly long lives. In fact, life expectancy in developed countries like the U.S. has been — and is expected to continue — rising at a rate of 2.5 years per decade: 3 months per year, 6 hours per day.4 Scientists, medical technologists, and statisticians are clear that increased longevity has already broadly taken root. Life expectancy in developed countries increased by three decades over the course of the 20th century alone. Children born in 1900, 1950, and 2000 in the U.S. were expected to see 47.3, 68.2, and 77.0 years of age, respectively.5 Today, without any further improvement in longevity, three-quarters of newborns will mark their 75th birthdays. More than half of babies born today in rich nations will live for 100 years.6 However, this is not simply a story about better health care for children; much of this increase in longevity is the result of a decline in mortality after age 80, which means that people are living and staying healthy longer.7 Based upon current life expectancy tables, a 65-year old female has a 50 percent likelihood of living to age 88, a 25 percent likelihood of living to 93, and a 10 percent likelihood of living to 97. A 65-year-old man has a 50 percent likelihood of living to age 86, a 25 percent likelihood of living to age 91, and a 10 percent likelihood of living to 95.8 Better elder health care has lengthened lives by allowing earlier diagnoses and better treatment of illnesses such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes. Public health campaigns against smoking have also aided longevity.9 continued inside