The Market Shows Resilience and Strength
1Q 2025 | Market Update
The local real estate market has held steady in the face of increasing macroeconomic headwinds, ranging from fires in LA, tariff talks, recession talks, insurance issues and a falling stock market. All of these topics have come up in the showing process, however, the desirability and small town feel continues to draw buyers to this market, some of them moving back to town after leaving during COVID. This quarter, we saw 143 deals close across the Monterey Peninsula for a combined $310M, which is a 34% and 13% increase over 1Q24, respectively. Good news for buyers, we’re starting to see more inventory come to the market as we head into our prime selling season. Sellers need to be thoughtful about how they approach pricing and handle offers as buyers continue to be very price sensitive and the increasing inventory might start to put pressure on prices.
The top of the market slowed this quarter, so the total invested in Carmel and Pebble Beach both dropped. The 27 deals that closed in Carmel this quarter came in at $83M, which is down 31% from 4Q24, when we also saw 27 deals close but for a total of $117M. Pebble had a similar trend, but is even more dependent on the top of the market - there were 24 deals that closed this quarter for $70M, down 36% from last quarter but over triple that of 1Q24 ($22M). Pacific Grove and Monterey both had very strong quarters with over 20% jumps in total dollars invested over last quarter. The Carmel Highlands had a particularly strong quarter as demand continues to heavily favor ocean views right now; the last two quarters have seen over $80M sold in the Highlands. Quail Lodge continues to post strong numbers with $18M invested into 8 deals, over double what we saw in 1Q24 for both deals and dollars invested. Carmel Valley Ranch surged back to life after a slow 2024 with $13M closing in 6 deals, up over last quarter and 1Q24, and further supports the strong demand we’re seeing at the entry point on the Peninsula. The Preserve slowed this quarter with just $2.15M sold from 2 lot sales and no home sales. Tehama and Monterra also didn’t have any home sales this quarter, as the top of the market in the valley slowed a bit. We do have 15 Alta Madera in Tehama in escrow currently, set to close next week… sensing we may be seeing more traction build in the valley.
We did see median sales prices dip this quarter, to $1.78M, down from $1.81M last quarter and a good drop from $2.6M in the first quarter of 2024. While we are seeing sellers come off their prices a bit, this statistical shift is more driven by higher activity at the bottom of the market than a significant drop in overall prices. But we’ll see if the stock market drop will have a sustained impact on buyer demand and liquidity to purchase second homes as we roll into summer.
Quarterly Sales by Region
Median Sales Price ($M)
Historic Sales Averages by Price Range
“Overall, the Carmel market has cooled, with fewer high-dollar transactions, longer selling times, and downward pressure on prices. Potential buyers may find this an opportune time to negotiate, while sellers may need to adjust pricing strategies to remain competitive. The majority of deals closed in the $3-6M bracket (15 of the 27), which is a key indicator for demand in this market. There are two deals in escrow north of $10M, so we anticipate the top of the market picking up as we head into the summer.”
$82.53 m
Pebble Beach
“The Pebble Beach market posted a healthy start to the new year with 24 sales totaling $69.82M in investments - more than doubling 1Q24’s totals. The highest concentration of activity occurred in the MPCC territory which represented 65% of 1Q’s sales. Also of note, properties absorbed at a faster clip than the previous quarter averaging around 17 fewer days on market. Looking ahead, we’re keeping a close eye on the potential market impacts of rising inventory levels (+35% QoQ) as we head into our peak selling and tourism seasons.”
1Q Region Overview
“The Carmel Highlands market is off to a good start in ’25 with 6 units sold – posting the most activity for a 1st quarter since 2018. The highest sale this quarter closed at $8.2M for a newly remodeled custom-built home on the southwestern rim of Ribera Road in Carmel Meadows. Buyers continue to seek shelter in this coveted ocean-view community even with the home insurance related headwinds the housing market is seeing in remote areas like the Highlands. This buying trend has helped keep values firm over the past two quarters as demand continues to outpace thin inventory levels.”
Carmel Highlands
$23.87 m
6
Quail Lodge / Meadows
“Demand continues to be particularly strong in Quail Lodge , where we’re increasingly seeing buyers downsize from Pebble or other areas to get a single level house that’s easy to maintain, close to town and with good weather. The 8 sales in the Quail Lodge included 3 of the vacant lots by the clubhouse which sold for $2M each; the rest of those lots are in escrow and should close this fall. We’ve also seen good demand for condos in Quail Lodge which had 2 more sales this quarter, and 2 more actively listed over on the 8th hole. We are in escrow on 5462 Quail Way which will close in April, and represent the first sale in Quail Meadows since September of 2024."
1Q Region Overview
“The first quarter of 2025 started off at a slower pace, with two homesite sales: 33 Pronghorn closed at $1.6M and 24 Pronghorn closed at $550K. There were no home sales; currently, there are 9 finished homes on the market, including our recently listed 18 Touche Pass, a stunning custom home designed by Hart|Howerton. Outside of the real estate activity, both the Ranch and Golf Clubs are nearing full capacity, with exciting events and activities on the horizon—another strong indicator of the community’s continued vibrancy and appeal.”
Santa Lucia Preserve
$2.15 m
2
$1.075M
Carmel Valley Ranch
“2025 is off to a robust start at Carmel Valley Ranch , with 6 units sold totaling $13.3M in volume, a 25% increase over 1Q 2024. The median sales price reached $2.2M, up 29% from this time last year. Days on market dropped to 56, reflecting a 31% decrease both YoY and QoQ. We’re continuing to see strong demand for The Ranch, particularly properties priced appropriately with desirable floor plans. In some cases, that demand has even resulted in multiple offers, like we saw at 9606 Buckeye Court. With limited inventory and active buyers circling, we anticipate the spring market will maintain this positive momentum.”
Paige Colijn
1Q Region Overview
“Teháma continues to draw strong interest from local buyers as people have come to realize the special combination of views, proximity to town and amenities. We currently have 15 Alta Madera in escrow, set to close next week, which will break a record for Teháma sales. There are also 12 lots currently on the market for an average list price of $2.88M. However, climbing construction and insurance costs are slowing down the vacant land market as we’ve seen just 2 sales in the past 2 years, down from the 10 we saw in the 3 years prior.”
Monterra
$849K
0
“There was one lot sale this quarter, up on Paseo Venado, which closed for $849K. We have seen pretty good traction in lot sales in Monterra, with 6 deals closing for an average of $1.18M. While there weren’t any home sales this quarter, we do have 2 active listings, including 7595 Paseo Vista ($5.695M) and 24275 Via Malpaso ($6.5M). The median sales price for a Monterra home over the past 2 years is $5.6M, as buyers are increasingly paying a premium for homes that are move-in ready and in a gated community.”
1Q Region Overview
“In the first quarter of 2025, the New Monterey neighborhood experienced a slight decline in home sales compared to the previous quarter. However, the average price per square foot rose from $908 in 2024 to $937 in 2025. Homes also sold significantly faster, with an average of just 13 days on the market, a sharp decrease from the 53-day average in Q4 2024.”
$41.21 m
“While first-quarter activity typically reflects a lull after the holidays, 2025 has shown early signs of a stabilizing market in Monterey. Notably, inventory levels have begun to rise in Q1 (25 new listings in February alone) and we’ve seen a significant decrease in DOM (35). With increased activity historically gaining steam as we exit Q1, Q2 will be a key indicator of what lies ahead.”
Monterey
1Q Region Overview
“ Pacific Grove’s housing market remained active in the first quarter of 2025, recording 35 closed sales—an uptick from the same period last year. Despite a slower pace in overall Monterey Peninsula sales, buyer demand in Pacific Grove has held steady, underscoring the area’s lasting appeal. Limited inventory continues to shape the market, with well-presented homes drawing strong interest.”
$58.54
Why Us?
Market Expertise:
With years of experience selling real estate on the Monterey Peninsula, we have a deep understanding of the local trends, property values and emerging opportunities.
Personalized Service:
We take pride in offering personalized and attentive service to our clients. Your goals are our priority, and we are committed to tailoring our approach to meet your specific needs.
Proven Track Record:
Our track record speaks for itself. We have successfully assisted hundreds of clients in our area achieve their real estate objectives, while delivering results that consistently exceed expectations.
Innovative Marketing Strategies:
In today’s competitive market, a strategic approach to marketing is essential. We leverage cutting-edge marketing strategies to ensure your property receives maximum exposure.
The #1 TEAM in 2020, 2021, and 2022
