Ejercicio de ANÁLISIS y PRONÓSTICOS "Valor de Producción Generado por las Empresas" a enero 2014

INSTITUTO TECNOLÓGICO DE LA CONSTRUCCIÓN, Programa de Maestría en Administración de la Construcción, Mexicali Baja California ----> ANÁLISIS DE LAS DECISIONES Unidad de medida Fuente Cifras preliminares Fecha inicial Fecha final Última actualización

Construcción (encuesta mensual)> Valor de producción generado por las empresas de la entidad> En términos reales> Por sector institucional> Total de las obras como contratista principal > Baja California Mensual

1000000

INEGI. Encuesta

Nacional de Empresas Constructoras.

2006/01

600000

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Análisis de los residuales

Percentil

Dato

Observación

Pronóstico Dato

Residuos

Dato

1 2

2006/01 2006/02

$ 1,084,306.99 $ 1,228,814.53

0.526315789 1.578947368

679186.3005 683000.103

1 2

1041378 42929.14 1042159 186655.4

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09

$ $ $ $ $ $ $

1,312,498.76 1,132,535.91 1,320,599.78 1,358,917.23 1,129,267.74 1,116,776.17 1,369,877.38

2.631578947 3.684210526 4.736842105 5.789473684 6.842105263 7.894736842 8.947368421

697393.8194 703939.4637 718297.2777 732362.53 732509.2335 744779.5463 759046.5497

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1042940 1043722 1044503 1045284 1046065 1046847 1047628

10

2006/10

$ 1,325,534.41

10

760503.8059

10

2006/12 2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12 2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12 2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12 2010/01 2010/02 2010/03 2010/04 2010/05 2010/06 2010/07 2010/08 2010/09 2010/10 2010/11 2010/12

400000

2014/01/31

Periodo

2006/11

800000

2012/01 2013/11

mes

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

mes Gráfico de los residuales

Miles de pesos (a precios de junio de 2012).

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

1,432,466.60 1,208,118.61 938,266.12 1,093,808.51 1,089,765.18 1,172,816.00 1,481,429.24 1,274,728.62 1,219,288.71 1,215,711.22 1,340,029.85 1,286,572.60 1,412,049.30 1,292,594.76 905,726.85 957,080.16 933,054.73 1,062,766.61 1,007,759.04 1,494,201.86 1,263,297.86 1,024,359.99 779,593.48 791,696.98 825,382.68 943,137.52 683,000.10 776,426.68 804,999.73 835,342.78 732,362.53 1,010,854.18 880,540.99 703,939.46 824,430.62 845,713.36 1,011,927.66 1,192,721.79 797,687.28 917,840.25 961,976.79 1,044,097.73 867,960.83 1,059,423.99 697,393.82 760,503.81 903,807.65 744,779.55 813,264.13 896,158.59

Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELÁZQUEZ

11.05263158 12.10526316 13.15789474 14.21052632 15.26315789 16.31578947 17.36842105 18.42105263 19.47368421 20.52631579 21.57894737 22.63157895 23.68421053 24.73684211 25.78947368 26.84210526 27.89473684 28.94736842 30 31.05263158 32.10526316 33.15789474 34.21052632 35.26315789 36.31578947 37.36842105 38.42105263 39.47368421 40.52631579 41.57894737 42.63157895 43.68421053 44.73684211 45.78947368 46.84210526 47.89473684 48.94736842 50 51.05263158 52.10526316 53.15789474 54.21052632 55.26315789 56.31578947 57.36842105 58.42105263 59.47368421 60.52631579 61.57894737 62.63157895

776426.6764 779593.4808 789472.4624 791696.9779 797687.2776 799259.9078 800195.9934 804999.7263 805532.4218 813264.1311 814990.5601 824430.6152 825382.6849 830975.0167 831963.162 835342.7758 845713.3581 859660.7942 867960.8269 878464.2657 880540.9886 896158.5929 896762.5842 903807.6468 905726.8473 917840.2536 933054.7282 938266.1172 943137.5218 954379.896 957080.1617 961976.7872 982029.6339 1007759.039 1010854.179 1011927.661 1024359.986 1027474.266 1043017 1044097.734 1048063.404 1059423.995 1062766.615 1084306.988 1089765.185 1093808.513 1103591.746 1109208.547 1116776.169 1129267.739

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

269558.4 88814.32 276096.9 313633.1 83202.41 69929.59 322249.6

1048409 277125.3 1049190 1049972 1050753 1051534 1052315 1053097 1053878 1054659 1055440 1056222 1057003 1057784 1058565 1059347 1060128 1060909 1061690 1062472 1063253 1064034 1064815 1065596 1066378 1067159 1067940 1068721 1069503 1070284 1071065 1071846 1072628 1073409 1074190 1074971 1075753 1076534 1077315 1078096 1078878 1079659 1080440 1081221 1082003 1082784 1083565 1084346 1085128 1085909 1086690 1087471

Residuos

Periodicidad

383276.3 158147 -112487 42274.46 37449.88 119719.4 427551.4 220069.6 163848.4 159489.7 283027.1 228788.6 353484 233248.2 -154401 -103829 -128636 295.1047 -55493.7 430167.9 198482.6 -41236.5 -286784 -275462 -242558 -125584 -386503 -293857 -266065 -236504 -340265 -62554.8 -193649 -371032 -251322 -230821 -65387.5 114625.3 -281190 -161819 -118463 -37123.7 -214042 -23359.9 -386171 -323843 -181320 -341129 -273426 -191313

Resumen

200000

0

0

Estadísticas de la regresión Coeficiente de correlación múltiple Coeficiente de determinación R^2 R^2 ajustado Error típico Observaciones

10

20

30

40

50

0.075732115 0.005735353 -0.004955664 285094.1814 95

Regresión Residuos Total

80

90

100

mes

Suma de Promedio de cuadrados los cuadrados 1 43603147046 43603147046 93 7.55892E+12 81278692278 94 7.60252E+12

Coeficientes 1040596.603 781.2466981

Intercepción mes

70

-400000

-600000

Grados de libertad

60

-200000

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA

Error típico 58965.00039 1066.639422

Estadístico t 17.64769941 0.732437487

Valor crítico de F F 0.536464673 0.465743531

Probabilidad Inferior 95% 1.93907E-31 923503.798 0.465743531 -1336.887802

Superior 95% Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0% 1157689.407 923503.798 1157689.407 2899.381198 -1336.887802 2899.381198

$1,950,000

Gráfico de Probabilidad "Normal" Valor de Producción generada por las empresas "CONSTRUCTORAS"

Ruta temática

$1,750,000

Línea EXPONENCIAL: y = 674735e0.0087x R² = 0.9845

$1,550,000

$1,350,000

$1,150,000

$950,000

$750,000

Línea RECTA: y = 9497.7x + 603213 R² = 0.9392

$550,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Muestra percentil

28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producción generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx

Página: 1

61

2011/01

$

789,472.46

63.68421053

1132535.913

61

1088253

-298780

62 63 64 65 66 67 68

2011/02

$ $ $ $ $ $ $

830,975.02 814,990.56 732,509.23 831,963.16 982,029.63 805,532.42 679,186.30

64.73684211 65.78947368 66.84210526 67.89473684 68.94736842 70 71.05263158

1159267.144 1172815.998 1192721.793 1208118.608 1215711.225 1216618.479 1219288.714

62 63 64 65 66 67 68

1089034 1089815 1090596 1091378 1092159 1092940 1093721

-258059 -274825 -358087 -259414 -110129 -287408 -414535

$ 859,660.79 $ 800,195.99 $ 1,048,063.40 $ 759,046.55 $ 718,297.28 $ 799,259.91 $ 896,762.58 $ 878,464.27 $ 1,027,474.27

72.10526316 73.15789474 74.21052632 75.26315789 76.31578947 77.36842105 78.42105263 79.47368421 80.52631579

1228814.528 1263297.858 1274728.623 1286572.598 1292594.756 1312498.761 1320599.782 1325534.413 1340029.848

69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77

1094503 1095284 1096065 1096846 1097628 1098409 1099190 1099971 1100753

-234842 -295088 -48001.7 -337800 -379330 -299149 -202428 -221507 -73278.3

$ 1,043,017.00

81.57894737

1346055.948

78

1101534

-58516.8

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

82.63157895 83.68421053 84.73684211 85.78947368 86.84210526 87.89473684 88.94736842 90 91.05263158 92.10526316 93.15789474 94.21052632 95.26315789 96.31578947 97.36842105 98.42105263 99.47368421

1358917.229 1369877.38 1412049.302 1412931.159 1432466.596 1459736.128 1475847.319 1481429.239 1494201.861 1495064.503 1528167.937 1535325.125 1623995.933 1663642.376 1741840.762 1829251.169 1875350.923

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95

1102315 1103096 1103878 1104659 1105440 1106221 1107003 1107784 1108565 1109346 1110128 1110909 1111690 1112471 1113253 1114034 1114815

1276.655 -148716 55389.56 4549.715 429885 306709.8 109615.9 238272.1 419602.9 514649.6 365719.8 348827.3 630150.7 551171.1 715998.6 761317.1 380249.5

69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

2011/03 2011/04 2011/05 2011/06 2011/07 2011/08 2011/09 2011/10 2011/11 2011/12 2012/01 2012/02 2012/03 2012/04 2012/05 2012/06 2012/07 2012/08 2012/09 2012/10 2012/11 2012/12 2013/01 2013/02 2013/03 2013/04 2013/05 2013/06 2013/07 2013/08 2013/09 2013/10 2013/11 2013/12

1,103,591.75 954,379.90 1,159,267.14 1,109,208.55 1,535,325.13 1,412,931.16 1,216,618.48 1,346,055.95 1,528,167.94 1,623,995.93 1,475,847.32 1,459,736.13 1,741,840.76 1,663,642.38 1,829,251.17 1,875,350.92 1,495,064.50

¿Qué es el Valor de la Producción de Bienes y Servicios?

• Este concepto representa la suma total del valor de los bienes y servicios producidos por una sociedad de acuerdo a la definición de la producción dada en la pregunta anterior e incluye el valor de todos los productos sin considerar si son de demanda intermedia o de demanda final.

En términos generales la producción puede ser clasificada como producción de mercado y no de mercado. Es fundamental la distinción entre estas producciones.

En la producción de mercado se considera la producción de bienes y servicios que se destinan a su venta o despacho en el mercado e incluye el valor total de los bienes y servicios vendidos, intercambiados, utilizados para pagos en especie, suministrados por un establecimiento a otro perteneciente a la misma empresa de mercado para uso como consumo intermedio así como el valor de las variaciones en existencias de producción terminada y en proceso destinados a los usos señalados. La valoración de esta producción se hará a precios básicos o a precios de productor según se determine en cada caso.

Se denomina producción no de mercado a aquella que no se produce para la venta u otro uso de mercado. Está constituida por los bienes y servicios producidos para uso final propio o suministrados gratuitamente o a precios económicamente no significativos a otras unidades institucionales, individual o colectivamente. En el Sistema, esta producción se valora sumando los costos incurridos en su producción, es decir mediante la suma de: “consumo intermedio + remuneración de asalariados + consumo de capital fijo + impuestos menos subsidios sobre la producción”.

$ 1,115,596.29

2014/01 97

$ 1,117,310.15

98

2014/02

$ 1,122,214.51

99

2014/03

$ 1,129,218.28

100

2014/04

$ 1,132,735.20

101

2014/05

$ 1,140,488.02

102 103 104

2014/06 2014/07 2014/08

Final Result [Linear Regressions/Linear]: Equation

: a + b*x

$ 1,149,525.94

1,034,375.39 = a

$ 1,154,102.13

918.92 = b

$ 1,158,586.02

105

2014/09

$ 1,168,732.12

106

2014/10

$ 1,178,484.07

2014/11

De CurveExpert:

284,754.71 = Standard Error 0.090010 = Correlation Coefficient

108

2014/12

$ 1,199,492.93

** Pronósticos para: $ 1,122,591.32

109

2015/01

$ 1,202,414.31

$ 1,123,510.24

110 111 112 113

2015/02 2015/03 2015/04 2015/05

$ $ $ $

1,208,662.26 1,215,012.46 1,223,354.40 1,238,723.71

$ 1,125,348.07 $ 1,126,266.99 $ 1,130,861.57 $ 1,131,780.48

114 115 116 117

2015/06

$ $ $ $

1,250,423.06 1,261,434.81 1,272,811.57 1,287,337.40

$ 1,134,537.23

2015/07 2015/08 2015/09

118 119 120

2015/10 2015/11 2015/12

$ 1,301,358.67 $ 1,318,695.72 $ 1,334,242.02

107

$ 1,191,075.03

Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELÁZQUEZ

$ 1,135,456.15 $ 1,137,293.98 $ 1,138,212.89 $ 1,140,050.72 $ 1,143,726.39 $ 1,144,645.30

X=

96 97 99 100 105 106 109 110 112 113 115 119 120

28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producción generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx

Página: 2

đ?’š

đ?’™ 4,560

102,419,162

đ?’™đ?&#x;?

đ?’šđ?&#x;?

��

290,320

4,971,932,050

Para obtener la pendiente e intercepto con el

118,020,256,117,694

mĂŠtodo de mĂ­nimos cuadrados:

95 = n x

y

x2

xy

1 $

1,084,306.99

1

2 $

1,228,814.53

4

1,084,307 2,457,629

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

$ $ $ $ $ $ $

1,312,498.76 1,132,535.91 1,320,599.78 1,358,917.23 1,129,267.74 1,116,776.17 1,369,877.38

9 16 25 36 49 64 81

10 $

1,325,534.41

100

11 $

1,432,466.60

121

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

1,208,118.61 938,266.12 1,093,808.51 1,089,765.18 1,172,816.00 1,481,429.24 1,274,728.62 1,219,288.71 1,215,711.22 1,340,029.85 1,286,572.60 1,412,049.30 1,292,594.76 905,726.85 957,080.16 933,054.73 1,062,766.61 1,007,759.04 1,494,201.86 1,263,297.86 1,024,359.99 779,593.48 791,696.98 825,382.68 943,137.52 683,000.10 776,426.68 804,999.73 835,342.78 732,362.53 1,010,854.18 880,540.99 703,939.46 824,430.62 845,713.36 1,011,927.66 1,192,721.79 797,687.28 917,840.25 961,976.79 1,044,097.73 867,960.83 1,059,423.99 697,393.82 760,503.81 903,807.65 744,779.55 813,264.13 896,158.59

144 169 196 225 256 289 324 361 400 441 484 529 576 625 676 729 784 841 900 961 1,024 1,089 1,156 1,225 1,296 1,369 1,444 1,521 1,600 1,681 1,764 1,849 1,936 2,025 2,116 2,209 2,304 2,401 2,500 2,601 2,704 2,809 2,916 3,025 3,136 3,249 3,364 3,481 3,600

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

(y - ÓŻ)

y2

(y - ÓŻ)2

1,175,721,645,219 $ 1,509,985,143,127 $

6,210.54 150,718.08

3,937,496 4,530,144 6,602,999 8,153,503 7,904,874 8,934,209 12,328,896

1,722,652,997,568 1,282,637,593,990 1,743,983,784,952 1,846,656,035,729 1,275,245,626,346 1,247,189,010,775 1,876,564,035,633

$ $ $ $ $ $ $

234,402.32 54,439.47 242,503.34 280,820.78 51,171.29 38,679.72 291,780.94

13,255,344

1,757,041,480,024 $

247,437.97

15,757,133 14,497,423 12,197,460 15,313,319 16,346,478 18,765,056 25,184,297 22,945,115 23,166,486 24,314,224 28,140,627 28,304,597 32,477,134 31,022,274 22,643,171 24,884,084 25,192,478 29,757,465 29,225,012 44,826,056 39,162,234 32,779,520 25,726,585 26,917,697 28,888,394 33,952,951 25,271,004 29,504,214 31,394,989 33,413,711 30,026,864 42,455,876 37,863,263 30,973,336 37,099,378 38,902,814 47,560,600 57,250,646 39,086,677 45,892,013 49,060,816 54,293,082 46,001,924 57,208,896 38,356,660 42,588,213 51,517,036 43,197,214 47,982,584 53,769,516

2,051,960,548,233 1,459,550,571,787 880,343,306,719 1,196,417,062,982 1,187,588,158,278 1,375,497,366,124 2,194,632,591,539 1,624,933,062,545 1,486,664,967,373 1,477,953,782,059 1,795,679,993,634 1,655,269,049,523 1,993,883,231,225 1,670,801,202,526 820,341,121,866 916,002,435,985 870,591,125,800 1,129,472,877,942 1,015,578,280,616 2,232,639,200,936 1,595,921,479,087 1,049,313,381,855 607,765,995,267 626,784,104,856 681,256,576,539 889,508,384,977 466,489,140,678 602,838,383,861 648,024,559,343 697,797,553,031 536,354,875,389 1,021,826,172,194 775,352,432,563 495,530,768,569 679,685,839,329 715,231,084,124 1,023,997,590,540 1,422,585,276,397 636,304,992,833 842,430,731,106 925,399,339,019 1,090,140,077,749 753,355,997,108 1,122,379,200,622 486,358,139,304 578,366,038,824 816,868,262,372 554,696,572,608 661,398,547,000 803,100,223,638

Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELĂ ZQUEZ

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

354,370.15 130,022.16 (139,830.33) 15,712.07 11,668.74 94,719.55 403,332.80 196,632.18 141,192.27 137,614.78 261,933.40 208,476.15 333,952.86 214,498.31 (172,369.60) (121,016.28) (145,041.72) (15,329.83) (70,337.41) 416,105.42 185,201.41 (53,736.46) (298,502.96) (286,399.47) (252,713.76) (134,958.92) (395,096.34) (301,669.77) (273,096.72) (242,753.67) (345,733.91) (67,242.26) (197,555.46) (374,156.98) (253,665.83) (232,383.09) (66,168.78) 114,625.35 (280,409.17) (160,256.19) (116,119.66) (33,998.71) (210,135.62) (18,672.45) (380,702.62) (317,592.64) (174,288.80) (333,316.90) (264,832.31) (181,937.85)

(x - X ďťż) 38,570,860

(x -X )2

x

y

Correlaciones

1

1,084,306.99

22,715,940,644

-47 -46

2,209 2,116

2

1,228,814.53

54,944,446,101 2,963,655,749 58,807,868,969 78,860,313,259 2,618,501,409 1,496,121,079 85,136,114,356

-45 -44 -43 -42 -41 -40 -39

2,025 1,936 1,849 1,764 1,681 1,600 1,521

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1,312,498.76 1,132,535.91 1,320,599.78 1,358,917.23 1,129,267.74 1,116,776.17 1,369,877.38

61,225,548,390

-38

1,444

10

1,325,534.41

1,369

11

1,432,466.60

1,296 1,225 1,156 1,089 1,024 961 900 841 784 729 676 625 576 529 484 441 400 361 324 289 256 225 196 169 144 121 100 81 64 49 36 25 16 9 4 1 0 1 4 9 16 25 36 49 64 81 100 121 144

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

1,208,118.61 938,266.12 1,093,808.51 1,089,765.18 1,172,816.00 1,481,429.24 1,274,728.62 1,219,288.71 1,215,711.22 1,340,029.85 1,286,572.60 1,412,049.30 1,292,594.76 905,726.85 957,080.16 933,054.73 1,062,766.61 1,007,759.04 1,494,201.86 1,263,297.86 1,024,359.99 779,593.48 791,696.98 825,382.68 943,137.52 683,000.10 776,426.68 804,999.73 835,342.78 732,362.53 1,010,854.18 880,540.99 703,939.46 824,430.62 845,713.36 1,011,927.66 1,192,721.79 797,687.28 917,840.25 961,976.79 1,044,097.73 867,960.83 1,059,423.99 697,393.82 760,503.81 903,807.65 744,779.55 813,264.13 896,158.59

125,578,204,368 16,905,763,159 19,552,520,350 246,869,103 136,159,510 8,971,793,946 162,677,343,719 38,664,213,770 19,935,256,963 18,937,827,829 68,609,108,036 43,462,306,630 111,524,511,207 46,009,525,638 29,711,277,953 14,644,940,627 21,037,099,388 235,003,664 4,947,350,578 173,143,717,740 34,299,563,822 2,887,606,893 89,104,019,185 82,024,654,294 63,864,244,148 18,213,910,748 156,101,118,857 91,004,648,803 74,581,817,338 58,929,343,546 119,531,939,422 4,521,522,166 39,028,158,055 139,993,446,064 64,346,352,797 54,001,898,699 4,378,307,909 13,138,970,669 78,629,300,729 25,682,046,636 13,483,774,758 1,155,912,309 44,156,977,648 348,660,370 144,934,488,563 100,865,083,900 30,376,584,914 111,100,154,430 70,136,154,051 33,101,381,741

-37 -36 -35 -34 -33 -32 -31 -30 -29 -28 -27 -26 -25 -24 -23 -22 -21 -20 -19 -18 -17 -16 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producciĂłn generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx

PĂĄgina: 3

61 $

789,472.46

3,721

48,157,820

623,266,768,837 $

(288,623.98)

83,303,802,900

13

169

61

789,472.46

62 $

830,975.02

3,844

51,520,451 51,344,405 46,880,591 54,077,606 64,813,956 53,970,672 46,184,668

690,519,478,405 $ 664,209,613,004 $ 536,569,777,103 $ 692,162,702,933 $ 964,382,201,858 $ 648,882,482,595 $ 461,294,030,795 $ 739,016,681,021 $ 640,313,627,842 $ 1,098,436,898,176 $ 576,151,664,636 $ 515,950,979,209 $ 638,816,400,223 $ 804,183,132,488 $ 771,699,466,108 $ 1,055,703,367,826 $ 1,087,884,462,289 $

(247,121.43) (263,105.88) (345,587.21) (246,133.28) (96,066.81) (272,564.02) (398,910.14)

61,068,999,932

196

62

830,975.02

(35,079.44)

69,224,706,274 119,430,520,241 60,581,592,614 9,228,832,045 74,291,146,310 159,129,302,758 47,714,133,216 77,228,660,570 901,983,523 101,792,835,183 129,455,440,200 77,749,814,040 32,881,968,776 39,853,006,701 2,562,604,901 1,230,567,407

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

30

225 256 289 324 361 400 441 484 529 576 625 676 729 784 841 900

63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78

814,990.56 732,509.23 831,963.16 982,029.63 805,532.42 679,186.30 859,660.79 800,195.99 1,048,063.40 759,046.55 718,297.28 799,259.91 896,762.58 878,464.27 1,027,474.27 1,043,017.00

25,495.30 (123,716.55) 81,170.70 31,112.10 457,228.68 334,834.71 138,522.04 267,959.50 450,071.49 545,899.49 397,750.87 381,639.68 663,744.32 585,545.93 751,154.72 797,254.48 416,968.06

650,010,432 15,305,784,298 6,588,682,427 967,962,965 209,058,066,597 112,114,286,095 19,188,354,252 71,802,295,647 202,564,348,444 298,006,251,466 158,205,758,483 145,648,848,369 440,556,518,833 342,864,038,156 564,233,420,260 635,614,703,750 173,862,362,410

31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

961 1,024 1,089 1,156 1,225 1,296 1,369 1,444 1,521 1,600 1,681 1,764 1,849 1,936 2,025 2,116 2,209

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95

1,103,591.75 954,379.90 1,159,267.14 1,109,208.55 1,535,325.13 1,412,931.16 1,216,618.48 1,346,055.95 1,528,167.94 1,623,995.93 1,475,847.32 1,459,736.13 1,741,840.76 1,663,642.38 1,829,251.17 1,875,350.92 1,495,064.50

0

7,602,521,528,932

0

71,440

63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

814,990.56 732,509.23 831,963.16 982,029.63 805,532.42 679,186.30 859,660.79 800,195.99 1,048,063.40 759,046.55 718,297.28 799,259.91 896,762.58 878,464.27 1,027,474.27 1,043,017.00

3,969 4,096 4,225 4,356 4,489 4,624 4,761 4,900 5,041 5,184 5,329 5,476 5,625 5,776 5,929 6,084

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

1,103,591.75 954,379.90 1,159,267.14 1,109,208.55 1,535,325.13 1,412,931.16 1,216,618.48 1,346,055.95 1,528,167.94 1,623,995.93 1,475,847.32 1,459,736.13 1,741,840.76 1,663,642.38 1,829,251.17 1,875,350.92 1,495,064.50

6,241 6,400 6,561 6,724 6,889 7,056 7,225 7,396 7,569 7,744 7,921 8,100 8,281 8,464 8,649 8,836 9,025

87,183,748 76,350,392 93,900,639 90,955,101 127,431,985 118,686,217 103,412,571 115,760,812 132,950,611 142,911,642 131,350,411 131,376,252 158,507,509 153,055,099 170,120,359 176,282,987 142,031,128

1,217,914,742,669 910,840,985,929 1,343,900,310,079 1,230,343,601,637 2,357,223,239,687 1,996,374,459,536 1,480,160,524,604 1,811,866,615,049 2,335,297,243,099 2,637,362,789,257 2,178,125,309,353 2,130,829,563,899 3,034,009,238,716 2,767,705,955,029 3,346,159,838,559 3,516,941,083,962 2,235,217,869,446

4,560 $ 102,419,162.20

290,320

4,971,932,050

118,020,256,117,694

x

x2

y 2

đ?‘?=

đ?‘Ś đ?‘Ľ − đ?‘ đ?‘Ľ2 −

b=

81,355,326

xy

(218,435.65) (277,900.45) (30,033.04) (319,049.89) (359,799.17) (278,836.54) (181,333.86) (199,632.18) (50,622.18)

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

(y - ÓŻ)

y2

(y - ÓŻ)2

Varianza de y =

80,877,888,606

Desv estĂĄndar de y =

284,390.3806489670

Desv Est de y FĂłrmula =

284,390.3806489670

đ?‘Ľ đ?‘Ľđ?‘Ś đ?‘Ľ đ?‘Ľ

1,040,596.60271332

đ?‘ đ?‘Ľđ?‘Ś − đ?‘š= đ?‘ đ?‘Ľ2 −

59,316,595 56,013,720 74,412,502 54,651,352 52,435,701 59,145,233 67,257,194 66,763,284 79,115,519

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

(x - X ďťż)

EstadĂ­sticos descriptivos

(x -X )2

Varianza de x =

760

x=

27.5680975042

Desv Est de x FĂłrmula =

27.5680975042

Desv estĂĄndar de

MES (X) Valor (Y)

đ?‘Ľ đ?‘Ś đ?‘Ľ đ?‘Ľ

đ?‘&#x;đ?‘Ľđ?‘Ś =

r xy =

781.24669805

đ?‘Ľđ?‘– đ?‘Śđ?‘– −đ?‘› ÓŻ đ?‘›đ?‘ đ?‘Ľ đ?‘ đ?‘Ś

Media de y = $

1,078,096.44

Media de x =

Promedio de y FĂłrmula = $

1,078,096.44

Promedio de x FĂłrmula =

Correlaciones

48.0000000000

MES

Valor

1

.0757321160247

N

95

.4657435273436 95.0000000000000

CorrelaciĂłn de Pearson

.07573211602466

1

Sig. (bilateral) N

.46574352734361 95

95

48.0000000000 CorrelaciĂłn de Pearson

<==== PENDIENTE

đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; =

đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;

N 95 95

<==== INTERCEPTO

MES m=

Media DesviaciĂłn tĂ­pica 48.00000000 27.5680975042 1,078,096.44 284,390.38062

đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;2 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; (

đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013; đ?&#x2018;Śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013; )2

đ?&#x2018;Ľđ?&#x2018;&#x2013; đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;

** PronĂłsticos para: $1,115,596.29

đ?&#x2018;Śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;

đ?&#x2018;Śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013;2 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; (

$1,116,377.53

đ?&#x2018;Śđ?&#x2018;&#x2013; )2

0.0757321154731752

Y = 1040596.60271332 + 781.246698053859X

Presenta: ING. RODOLFO MORALES VELĂ ZQUEZ

$1,117,940.03 $1,118,721.27 $1,122,627.51 $1,123,408.75 $1,125,752.49 $1,126,533.74 $1,128,096.23 $1,128,877.48 $1,130,439.97 $1,133,564.96 $1,134,346.21

X=

96 97 99 100 105 106 109 110 112 113 115 119 120

Valor

Sig. (bilateral)

28/02/2014, RMV Mxli Valor de producciĂłn generado por las empresas -a enero 2014.xlsx

PĂĄgina: 4