PESO SINKS TO A NEW 13-YEAR LOW AHEAD OF MONETARY BOARD MEET By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM
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HE local currency sank further into the 54 territory on Monday on the back of external pressures pushing emerging market currencies downward. Data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP) showed the peso closed Monday’s trade at 54.23 to a dollar, weaker than the previous day’s trade close at 54.04 against the dollar. The total traded volume during the day was broadly the same at $670.6 million, from the $669.9 million in the previous day. The peso has not been this weak against the dollar since November of 2005. But the currency weakness, ac-
A TELLER at a bank in Makati counts P1,000 bills at her counter in this file photo. Reports said the local currency sank further into the 54 territory on Monday on the back of external pressures pushing emerging market currencies downward. NONIE REYES
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cording to ING Bank Manila, is something that is seen across the region due largely to the external pressures pushing into emerging market economies. “The China-US trade spat, higher oil prices, a hawkish Fed and an appreciating dollar have had almost all emerging market currencies heading for cover,” ING Bank said in its currency report on Monday. The bank said that, while the weakness is seen across the region, the Philippines has been one of the hardest hit—along with India and Indonesia. “The tie that binds the rupee, the rupiah and the peso is their external deficits. All three countries run current-account deficits due to the mix of aggressive infrastructure investment, strong consumer de-
mand, and the 2018 oil-price surge bloating their respective import bills,” ING Bank said. ING Bank Manila senior economist Joey Cuyegkeng also said some strength is possible for the Philippine currency down the line, depending on capital flows and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s (BSP) resolve to contain the weakness. “We expect the BSP to also directly intervene in the spot market to manage PHP’s weakening trend. A key to this is the country’s foreignexchange reserves,” Cuyegkeng said. “We expect the government to issue an additional $1.5 billion to $2 billion of global bonds before the end of the year. The proceeds would raise foreign-exchange reserves and the BSP’s ability to participate See “Peso,” A2
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Tuesday, September 25, 2018 Vol. 13 No. 346
Ompong farm damage climbs to nearly ₧27B F By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
@jearcalas
ARM sector damage caused by Typhoon Ompong has reached P26.7 billion, the highest since Supertyphoon Yolanda (international code name Haiyan) wrought havoc in 2013 and caused P35 billion in production losses, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).
“This is now the highest damage to the agriculture sector since Yolanda. Yolanda was about P35 billion and we are now [at] about P26 billion,” Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel F. Piñol said in a press conference on Monday. The latest damage assessment report by the DA showed that the rice sector suffered the brunt of the damage brought by Ompong. The DA report said about 517,175 hectares of rice farms were affected by Ompong, with an estimated production loss of about 765,484 metric tons (MT).
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Other key economic indicators to watch for Manny B. Villar
THE ENTREPRENEUR
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HE inflation rate is one of the critical economic indicators that businessmen, analysts and consumers monitor, but other numbers are equally important to consider in the overall assessment of how the economy is faring. Some positive numbers of late, in fact, are emerging that tend to show that the high inflation rate of 6.4 percent registered in August is just a blip that will fade away in the medium-term period. One should remember that, while the economy grew at a slower clip of 6 percent in the second quarter of the year, the gross domestic product expanded by an average of 6.3 percent in the first two quarters, still one of the fastest in Asia. Continued on A6
See “Farm damage,” A2
Senators nix publication, book taxes in TRAIN 2 By Butch Fernandez
The likelihood of an oil spike and crash scenario akin to the one observed in 2008 has increased.” —Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch, in note on Opec’s signals the S&P Global Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, knows as Appec. “In my view, that makes it conceivable to see a price spike north of $100 a barrel.”
Harsher sanctions
WHEN Trump in May announced plans to reimpose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, the market estimated a cut of about 300,000 to 700,000 barrels a day, said Trafigura Group Cohead of Oil Trading Ben Luckock. However, the consensus has now moved to as much as 1.5 million barrels daily as the US is “ incredibly serious” about its measures, he said. Continued on A5
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 54.0270
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Big oil traders say $100 coming as Opec tries to fill Iran gap
AJOR oil trading houses are predicting the return of $100 crude for the first time since 2014, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its allies struggle to compensate for US sanctions on Iran’s exports. W it h Brent c r ude a l ready jumping to an almost four-year high on Monday, that’s exactly the kind of price surge President Donald Trump has been seeking to prevent by pressuring the Opec to raise production. Yet, the cartel and its allies gave mixed signals at a meeting in Algiers on Sunday, ultimately showing little sign they would heed US demands to rapidly push down crude prices. Opec’s reticence, combined with signs of accelerating supply losses from Iran, created the mood at the annual gathering of the Asian oil industry, traders, refiners and bankers in Singapore on Monday. “The market does not have the supply response for a potential disappearance of 2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter,” Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. Cofounder Daniel Jaeggi said in a speech at
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Bank Philippines senior economist Rong Qian said there was zero real wage growth in the country between 2000 and 2016, which she found unusual for a developing country. The AmBisyon 2040 states that all Filipinos would like to reach middle-class status by 2040, which means an income of P120,000 a
EVERAL senators, including key Senate leaders, signalled support for an emerging majority consensus for Congress to reject removal of the existing value-added tax (VAT) exemption on books and publications as part of the second-round reforms. “I won’t allow it,” Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III told the BusinessMirror on Monday, affirming the Senate leadership’s position when asked about the Department of Finance (DOF)-backed proposal to impose the VAT on instructional materials as part of TRAIN 2. Sotto earlier introduced Senate Bill 1906, the chamber’s version of the DOF-endorsed initiatives under the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion 2, cutting corporate income tax but also lifting 123 tax incentives and special laws. Included here is the VAT exemption for books and publications. The House of Representatives passed on third and final reading its version of the TRAIN 2, which it called Tax Reform for Attracting Better and Higher Opportunity, or
See “Wage growth,” A2
See “Senators,” A8
A FARMER segregates freshly harvested palay in Siniloan, Laguna, in this file photo. The National Food Authority Council on Monday approved the importation of 500,000 metric tons more of rice in a bid to flood the market with affordable varities. This, as supply constraints are seen worsening on account of the huge damage to rice-growing areas by Typhoon Ompong, with the total losses nearing P27 billion. BERNARD TESTA
PHL had ‘zero real wage growth’–WB report By Cai U. Ordinario
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@cuo_bm
HE absence of a real wage growth in the Philippines is among the major obstacles that could undermine the country’s efforts in turning the “American dream” of every Filipino into reality, according to the World Bank. In a briefing on Monday, World
₧120,000
The monthly income that all Filipinos must attain to reach middle-class status by 2040 under the “AmBisyon 2040” road map
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n JAPAN 0.4805 n UK 70.6511 n HK 6.9185 n CHINA 7.8918 n SINGAPORE 39.5947 n AUSTRALIA 39.2236 n EU 63.4601 n SAUDI ARABIA 14.4080
Source: BSP (24 September 2018 )