BusinessMirror September 23, 2018

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Sunday, September 23, 2018 Vol. 13 No. 344

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RESIDENTS stand by a flooded road following the onslaught of Typhoon Ompong in Tuguegarao City, Cagayan, September 15, 2018. AP/AARON FAVILA

ANOTHER STORM,

MORE HARD LESSONS T

By Rene Acosta

HE government is seriously considering the implementation of a nationwide program to train and educate local government officials in dealing with and responding to disaster risks and hazards posed by typhoons and other natural calamities in the aftermath of powerful Typhoon Ompong (international code name Mangkhut), which spawned a deadly landslide in Itogon, Benguet.

Govt seeks to strengthen disaster response training at barangay, community level after Typhoon Ompong While local leaders may already be equipped with a little stock knowledge about the dangers of typhoons and other natural-borne disasters, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has taken cognizance of the necessity to enhance local officials’ capabilities to deal with such—before, during and even after a disaster struck. NDRRMC Executive Director Ricardo Jalad said the training of local officials, specifically the mayors down to the lowest official in

RESIDENTS wade through floodwaters to buy drinking water in Calumpit, Bulacan, September 17, 2018. AP/BULLIT MARQUEZ

the barangay, is already a necessity given that the country is heavily exposed to natural calamities.

First responders

“ONE thing that I am seeing is for us to target barangay captains and municipal local government operations officers because they are the ones who are heavily involved on the ground. [We may not achieve the desired result if]…the national level is the only one functioning in disaster response,” he said. Continued on A2

This is how the next economic crisis will look like By Peter Lundgreen

NOTE: Lately, there have been many comments about the next global financial crisis to the 10-year “anniversary,” but a new crisis is building, though very slowly.

T

HE “financial crisis” that will hit Wall Street and other markets around the world may just be a correction. I still argue that bonds are currently overpriced, and this asset class will correct lower parallel with US Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) rate hikes.

The quantitative easing was a monetary intervention that sent the short-term interest rates down to an extreme level, which is correcting itself back. Though further hikes are needed to adjust for the

hot American labor market, and the inflation level, in my view, a Fed fund rate at 4 percent is adequate, which speaks for a 10-year yield above 4.5 percent—such a move might seem like a crisis when

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 54.0600

Government debt as percentage of GDP Government debt as pct. of GDP

USA - Household debt compared to income

300 250 200 150 100 50 0

USA USA

Japan Japan

UK Storbritannien 2008

France Frankrig

Italy Italien

2017

Source: FRED, Fed St. Louis, USA

it happens. I argue that it’s currently happening, but it’s not a long-term trend, nor a crisis, but a correction back from an overpriced situation. It might very well generate pres-

USA household debt compared to income

1.3 1.25 1.2 1.15 1.1 1.05 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), USA

sure on the US stock markets and cause a drop of 15 to 20 percent, but again, a correction from high levels. It could feel like a storm and could

temporarily affect consumer spending slightly. However, the markets are far from the global overbought situation ahead of the dot.com crisis in 2000-2001. Right now, the global markets offer cheap

stocks in China, and the United Kingdom will soon be a good story. In six months’ time, there will be opportunities in several emerging See “Economic Crisis,” A2

n JAPAN 0.4815 n UK 71.0727 n HK 6.8909 n CHINA 7.8913 n SINGAPORE 39.4945 n AUSTRALIA 39.2638 n EU 63.1096 n SAUDI ARABIA 14.4148

Source: BSP (September 20, 2018 )


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BusinessMirror September 23, 2018 by BusinessMirror - Issuu