BusinessMirror September 22, 2020

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Deutsche sees BSP keeping policy rates till ’21 By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad

T CANDLELIGHT illuminates the names of the disappeared and those found dead during the martial-law years, as engraved on the Bantayog ng Desaparecido, inside the National Shrine of Our Mother of Perpetual Help Church, also known as the Redemptorist Church or Baclaran Church, in Parañaque City. Monday marked the 48th anniversary of the declaration of martial law in the country. The memorial was set up in memory of Redemptorist priest Fr. Rudy Romano and other missing persons. NONIE REYES

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HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is likely to keep key policy rates at the same level until next year, according to a study. The Deutsche Bank research noted in a report on Monday that the Central Bank is not seen changing its policy stance until the third quarter of 2021. Currently, the overnight reverse repurchase facility is at 2.25 percent after the Monetary Board (MB) implemented a series of policy cuts—totaling 175 basis points—to inject liquidity into the weakening economy. Overnight deposit and overnight lending rates, meanwhile, stood at 1.75 percent and 2.75 percent, respectively. The BSP had been trimming interest

rates since the beginning of the year to aid the market, but changed its tune during the August monetary policy meeting. It took a “prudent pause” last month from releasing liquidity as the inflation is seen settling within the government target band of 2.04.0 percent until 2022. The German multinational investment bank, in an earlier report, said it expected the BSP to bring down interest rates to 2.25 percent as the Covid-19 pandemic slows down the economy. “With the economy contracting much more than the government expected, and inflation at the bottom of the Central Bank’s target band—and the currency strengthening— we think there is still more room for BSP to cut rates,” the bank said in June. At the time, key policy rates stood at 2.75 percent.

Deutsche, meanwhile, observed that the Philippines is struggling to contain the coronavirus despite placing lockdown measures. Still, the financial services firm noted that the country has been easing the mobility restriction to help pump the local economy. “However, the tolerance for extended rigorous social distancing appears to be weakening, with new social-distancing regulations being in most places milder and imposed for shorter durations,” the bank said. “India, like Indonesia and the Philippines, has yet to get the outbreak under control but pushed ahead with easing of lockdown measures nonetheless, allowing for a recovery of economic activity,” it added. Metro Manila and other areas were recently placed under the more relaxed See “Deutsche,” A2

BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business

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‘CALAMITY’ EXTENSION RAISES SPENDING ALERT www.businessmirror.com.ph

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Tuesday, September 22, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 348

RESIDENTS of Barangay San Dionisio in Parañaque City are greeted Monday morning with a “fountain” from a busted water pipe in the middle of the road, and, notwithstanding the heavy traffic, took the opportunity for an outdoor shower as they lined up containers to collect the freebie. ROY DOMINGO

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By Cai U. Ordinario

HE extension of a declaration of national calamity for one year bodes well for the economy, economists said, but they strongly advised the government to practice judicious spending.

They said the extension of the national calamity status will enable both the national and local governments to immediately tap funds for Covid-19-related projects that have the potential to stimulate spending. Under Proclamation 1021, the extension will allow the national and local governments to tap the Quick Response Fund for basic necessities and provision of basic services for affected populations.

“Extending the state of calamity until September 2021 is meant to cement the foundation for future economic recovery,” University of Asia and the Pacific Economics Dean Cid L. Terosa told the BusinessMirror. “It serves to ensure that economic recovery will have enough momentum in the medium to long terms by allowing swift response to signs of possible outbreaks and the mobilization of Continued on A2

Travel tax take seen to fall to ₧1.2B in 2020 By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo Special to the BusinessMirror

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RAVEL taxes paid by citizens and visitors leaving the Philippines are projected to fall by 83 percent this year, owing to the continued international travel restrictions implemented to contain the spread of Covid-19. This was the estimate of Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority (Tieza) Chief Operating Officer Pocholo D. Paragas at the recent House Appropriations Committee’s hearing of the Department of Tourism’s (DOT) budget for 2021. “Based on our computation, we are actually pro-

jecting a drop of 83 percent for this year, which is totaling roughly about P1.2 billion. This is a difference from 2019 that the travel tax collection was P7.2 billion,” he said. Of total travel taxes collected by government, Tieza, the infrastructure arm of the DOT, gets 50 percent—or P3.6 billion in last year’s case—70 percent of which goes to fund its operations. The remaining 30 percent or P1.98 billion was supposed to have funded Tieza’s projects. Paragas said they project the collection of travel taxes would probably normalize by 2024. He made this disclosure as several lawmakers followed up on their

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 48.4100

respective infrastructure projects which had been promised to be funded out of Tieza’s budget. “The moment travel tax collections increase again, we can start reviewing [your project] and possible implementation,” he said, responding to a question by Baguio City Rep. Mark Ocampo Go on a project in his city. Last November, the Tieza board approved P400 million to rehabilitate Burnham Park. Tieza, however, has been heavily criticized by Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III, who said the agency had been slow in implementing projects. “They have been hoarding it,” Dominguez told the BusinessMirror last year, refer-

encing some P14 billion in travel taxes collected by Tieza since 2009. The finance department eventually took over said Tieza funds for initial Covid-19 projects. Data obtained by this paper showed, of the P2.95-billion share in travel taxes of Tieza in 2017, it was only able to disburse P568.97 million for infrastructure projects that year. In 2018 Tieza received P3.18 billion in travel taxes, of which, only P730 million was disbursed for infra projects. In 2019 Tieza’s share in travel taxes was P3.43 billion, but it only disbursed P845.13 million for infra projects. This reflects an average disbursal See “Travel,” A2

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AMRO SEES PHL ECONOMY REGAINING PRE-COVID STATUS, BUT FLAGS RISKS

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HE Philippine economy is expected to return to its pre-pandemic growth path in 2022, according to the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro). In an e-mail to the BusinessMirror on Monday, Amro country economist for the Philippines Zhiwen Jiao said, however, that this recovery hinges on the government’s policies to respond to the crisis and the recovery of the global economy. Zhiwen said Amro still expects the Philippine economy to contract 7.6 percent in 2020 and to rebound by 6.6 percent in 2021. “The economy is likely past its worst stage and a nascent recovery is already under way, as the economy gradually reopens and policy stimulus takes effect,” Zhiwen said. “The trajectory and pace of the recovery will hinge on the development of the Covid-19 [coronavirus 2019] pandemic, the recovery of global economy and policy responses,” he added. In an analytical note titled, “Another ‘Unprecedented’ Crisis? This, Too, Shall Pass,” Amro said post-crisis recoveries may be “deceptive” based on what happened after the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Based on Amro’s findings, Hong Kong, the Philippines and Singapore would have “recovered” back to their previous GDP levAMRO country economist el trajectories, immediately after the AFC. for the Philippines Zhiwen Jiao: “The However, data showed that the GDP levels of all regional economies, except economy is likely past for the Philippines, started diverging its worst stage and a nascent recovery is away from trend following the shock of already under way, as the AFC. The same trend was observed the economy gradually in the GFC. reopens and policy stimulus takes effect.”

See “Amro,” A2

n JAPAN 0.4631 n UK 62.6087 n HK 6.2465 n CHINA 7.1506 n SINGAPORE 35.6428 n AUSTRALIA 35.3199 n EU 57.3416 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.9076

Source: BSP (September 21, 2020)


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