POLL: Q3 BIZ OUTLOOK LESS UPBEAT
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HE outlook of businesses on the economy was less sanguine in the third quarter due to the slack in demand and slowdown of business activities during the rainy season, according to the results of a survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Results of the Business Expectations Survey (BES) conducted by the BSP indicated that overall confidence index (CI) for the third quarter fell to 37.3 percent, from 40.5 percent for the second quarter. The BSP said respondents attributed their weaker sentiment for the period to: seasonal factors, such as slack in the demand and slowdown of business activities during the rainy season; decline in orders leading to lower sales; lack of
supply of raw materials; and the perceived unfavorable effects of various government policies, such as the rice tariffication law and stiffer competition. The CI is computed as the percentage of firms that answered in the affirmative minus the percentage of firms that answered in the negative with respect to their views on a given indicator. The lower but positive Cl means that the number of optimists declined but continued to be greater than the number of pessimists for the third quarter of the year. The sentiment of businesses in the Philippines mirrored the less buoyant business outlook in Bulgaria, Croatia, Germany, India and Norway. However, business sentiment in
Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, France, Greece, Hungary, Israel and Ukraine was more optimistic. The results of the BES were in contrast to the results of the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), which showed Filipino consumers as more optimistic. The BSP said the overall CI rebounded to positive territory at 4.6 percent for the third quarter, from -1.3 percent for the second quarter. Consumers’ optimistic outlook was attributed to their expectations of the following: improvements in the peace and order situation, availability of more jobs, additional and high income and good governance. The BSP said the improvement in See “Biz outlook,” A2
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DATA CHAMPION
www.businessmirror.com.ph
A broader look at today’s business Friday, September 20, 2019 Vol. 14 No. 345
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Aug data raises 8-mo BOP surplus to $5.5B $2.44B T By Bianca Cuaresma
@BcuaresmaBM
HE Philippines continued to earn millions of dollars in August this year, as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported a higher surplus in the economy’s balance of payments (BOP) during the period.
Data from the BSP released on Thursday showed a total surplus of $5.529 billion in the first eight months of the year, after incurring a $493-million surplus in August alone. The eight-month surplus is a steep turnaround from the
$2.44-billion deficit in the same eight-month period last year. Meanwhile, August’s surplus is lower than the one-off $1.27-billion surplus in the same month in 2018. A country’s BOP is one of the
more important external indicators of its economy. A surplus in the BOP means the country earned more dollars than what it spent during the time period while a deficit means the economy lost more dollars than what it could earn given
The BOP deficit in the JanuaryAugust period in 2018
the time period. The BSP said inflows in August 2019 were due to the national government’s net foreign-currency deposits, as well as the Central Bank’s income from its investments abroad. These inflows were offset partially, however, by outflows representing payments made by the national government on its foreignexchange obligations during the month in review. See “BOP,” A2
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MULTILEVEL MARKETING SCAMS TARGET OF DRIVE By Elijah Felice E. Rosales @alyasjah
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HE Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is intensifying its campaign against the billion-dollar sector of illegitimate multilevel marketing (MLM) by tightening its rules and regulations on the conduct of such business activity. Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said he is issuing a department administrative order putting up an accreditation system that will certify the operations of legitimate MLM firms and direct sellers. Primarily geared toward protecting consumers, the DAO also intends to expose pyramiding schemes posing as MLM programs. Lopez said the DAO has a list of indicators the public can use in determining whether they are dealing with pyramiding schemes. “To protect consumers and aspiring direct sellers, we are establishing an accreditation system that will give due recognition to legitimate multilevel marketing
Ex-DOF chiefs seek tax-reform bills’ OK
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ORMER finance secretaries expressed their support for the immediate passage of the remaining packages of the Comprehensive Tax Reform Program, saying the CTRP is crucial to cutting poverty incidence to 14 percent, from 21 percent in three years. In a joint statement, the former finance chiefs and economic experts stressed that tax reforms, among other measures, will help the Duterte administration achieve its twin goals of attaining an “Aminus” sovereign credit rating in the next few years and reducing poverty incidence. The remaining four packages of the tax-reform program, which are currently being deliberated in Congress, are Package 2, or the Corporate Income Tax and Incentives Rationalization Act, Package
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n
2+ or the “sin” tax reform further increasing excise taxes on alcohol and e-cigarettes, Package 3 or the Real Property Valuation Reform, and Package 4 or the Passive Income and Financial Intermediary Taxation Act. They said these tax reforms, as well as the proposed amendments to the Public Service Act, the Foreign Investments Act (FIA) and the Retail Trade Act (RTA), will also benefit the country. “A modern fiscal incentive system that is performance-based, targeted, time-bound and transparent will ensure that each peso granted as an incentive is not wasted, and is instead given to companies that provide a net positive benefit to the country,” the statement read. See “Ex-DOF,” A2
and direct sellers so that the public will be guided. We are also giving indication of and alarm signals for illegitimate MLMs, procedure for filing of complaints and enforcement,”Lopez told the BusinessMirror. The issuance of the order will come at a time the value of consumer goods sold through MLM has reached billions of dollars: $1.4 billion for legitimate, $1 billion for underground, according to Trade Undersecretary Ruth B. Castelo. “Global sales [through MLM programs] in 2018 is $193 billion, while sales in the Philippines is about $1.4 billion. Alleged illegal MLM revenues in the Philippines could reach an additional $1 billion,”Castelo told the BusinessMirror.
Crucial order THE DAO is crucial, Castelo explained, because it recognizes there are legitimate MLM firms, and sets up alarm signals for illegitimate MLMs, procedures for lodging of formal charges and enforcement of the rules and regulations. Continued on A8
Q3 GDP growth may hit 6%–Pernia By Cai U. Ordinario
G MORE RAINS Young boys enjoy the spray as strong winds brought about by a weather disturbance whip up the waters at the Manila Bay in the Baseco area in Tondo, Manila, on Thursday, September 19. Tropical Depression “Nimfa” was upgraded to a tropical storm, and meteorologists predicted rains continuing toward the weekend. NONIE REYES
@caiordinario
OVERNMENT spending, one of the country’s growth engines, will allow the Philippines to expand GDP by at least 6 percent in the third quarter, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda). Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia told reporters at the sidelines of the 5th Annual Public Policy Conference (APPC) held in Manila on Thursday that GDP growth may be around 6 percent in the third quarter, the low-end of the government’s target.
US 52.2150 n JAPAN 0.4815 n UK 65.1434 n HK 6.6679 n CHINA 7.3677 n SINGAPORE 37.9469 n AUSTRALIA 35.6472 n EU 57.5984 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.9218
See “Growth,” A8
Source: BSP (19 September 2019 )