BusinessMirror October 10, 2020

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Here’s what could happen if China invaded Taiwan

Sampinit’s transformation from Abu Sayyaf terrorists’ lair to an ‘eco-tourism area’ is an experiment still in progress, but has drawn much interest among peace seekers.

A THUNDERBOLT 2000 multiple-rocket launcher fires munitions during the Republic of China Armed Forces’ annual Han Kuang military exercise in Taichung, Taiwan, July 16, 2020. I-HWA CHENG/BLOOMBERG

By Samson Ellis

X

Bloomberg News

I JINPING’S Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has threatened to invade Taiwan for more than seven decades. Now fears are growing among analysts, officials and investors that it might actually follow through over the next few years, potentially triggering a war with the US. In September, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft repeatedly breached the median line in the Taiwan Strait, eliminating a de facto buffer zone that has kept peace for decades. The party-run Global Times newspaper has given a picture of what could come, urging China’s air force to patrol the skies over Taiwan and “achieve reunification through military means” if it fires any shots. Taiwan announced it would only shoot if attacked. Despite the saber rattling, China and Taiwan have many reasons to avoid a war that could kill tens of thousands, devastate their economies and potentially lead to a nuclear conflict with the US and its allies. The overwhelming consensus remains that Beijing will continue efforts to control Taiwan through military threats, diplomatic isolation and economic incentives. Equities in Taiwan have recently hit record highs.

Unfolding major crisis

ARMED Forces Western Mindanao Command commander Lt. Gen. Corleto Vinluan Jr. and Basilan Governor Jim Hataman Salliman tour Sampinit Complex in September. The municipal government of Sumisip has turned over 200 hectares of the complex, once the stronghold of the Abu Sayyaf Group in Basilan, to the military, which plans to develop it into an eco-tourism site. The ASG held at least 200 kidnap victims and carried out numerous beheadings of its captives at the complex for 20 years. WESTMINCOM PIO

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By Rene Acosta

The remnants are just made up of the RJ and Pasil Bayali groups of the ASG.

T’S a “natural” monument and a symbol of the government’s successes in its counterterrorism drive in Basilan.

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has revealed that it has laid down plans to develop a portion of the Sampinit Complex— a sprawling, 200-hectare forested area that was once a symbol of the bloody notoriety of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in Basilan—into an eco-tourism zone following its declaration as a military reservation. Casting away stories of countless beheadings, bloody firefights and sufferings of hundreds of kidnap victims that the place once mutely witnessed, it should not be that difficult for the military to promote the complex as a tourism site with its wealth of natural beauties, among which are towering century-old trees and protected animal and plant species. The visit should be made even more thrilling—if not eerie—by its former ghastly past. But all of these tourism adventures and sightseeing would only be possible when peace and order has been fully restored in Basilan, the military cautioned.

Biodiversity haven

“CENTURY-OLD trees and protected wildlife species are abundant in Sampinit Complex,” said Western

Mindanao Command (Westmincom) spokesman Lt. Col. Alaric delos Santos. “And [there are vast] rubber plantations in some barangays at Sampinit Complex,” he added. Last month, Westmincom commander Lt. Gen. Corleto Vinluan Jr., accompanied by local officials led by Basilan Governor Jim Hataman Salliman and Basilan Rep. Mujiv Hataman, visited Sampinit Complex as part of the initial effort for its impending transformation. The provincial government and the municipality of Sumisip have turned over 200 hectares of the vast complex to the military, set to be declared as a reservation.

‘Springboard for satanic acts’

VINLUAN, whose party also included Sumisip Mayor Jul-Adnan Hataman, could only recall the numerous cases of beheadings by the ASG in the area after families of the hostages failed to pay ransom. He aptly described it a “springboard for satanic acts.” For the military, the complex, which sits at the tri-boundaries of Sumisip, Maluso and Isabela City, the reservation area represents the reign of terror and the downfall of the local terrorist group in Basilan.

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‘Peace zone’

Basilan

The group has earlier aligned itself with the Islamic State (IS). It has been the stronghold of the ASG in the province for at least 20 years, a training ground for fighters from other island provinces. It has also kept at least 200 captives until it was cleared by the military with years of sustained operations.

Legacy

“THEIR [soldiers’] indefatigable service led to the restoration of this sanctuary. Rest assured that we will continue their legacy by eliminating hostility and bringing about the normalcy in the area,” Vinluan said of the soldiers who lost their lives in clearing the complex of terrorists. According to delos Santos, there are still more or less 30 ASG members operating in the province after most of their colleagues have been killed—or have surrendered—following the death of ASG commander and IS Southeast Asia head Isnilon Hapilon in Marawi City during the IS siege in 2017.

THE operation and existence of the ASG in the Sampinit Complex caused some of the barangays located in the area to be deserted, although the villagers are slowly returning, encouraged by the level of security and institution of basic services. The decision to turn over the 200-hectare portion of the complex was first planned by Sumisip officials following the construction of the 30-kilometer “transcentral road,” which connects Barangay Tumahubong in Sumisip to Barangay Santa Clara in Lamitan City. Aside from the transcentral road, the “Mahatallang Roundball,” the new highway that connects the Mahatallang area to the adjoining Punoh Lumot and Punoh Timugen in Sampinit Complex, has also been constructed. As a military reservation and an eco-tourism area, the donated portion of the complex, a virgin forest, will be declared a “peace zone” and its vast timberlands and watersheds will be converted into protected wildlife sanctuaries for eco-tourism. Indeed, for those familiar with the area’s dark past, it’s hard to conceive of this “springboard for satanic acts” as currently a sanctuary where nature heals the soul. But then, the alternative, i.e., letting it stay on as refuge for the bloodthirsty, is way more unthinkable.

BUT several forces may push them toward action: President Xi Jinping’s desire to cement his legacy by gaining “lost” territory, falling support among Taiwan’s public for any union with China, the rise of pro-independence forces in Taipei and the US’s increasingly hostile relationship with Beijing on everything from Hong Kong to the coronavirus to cutting-edge technology. “I am increasingly concerned that a major crisis is coming,” said Ian Easton, senior director at the Project 2049 Institute who wrote The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia. “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones. This flash point is fundamentally unstable.” Taiwan will be among the most pressing security issues facing whoever wins the US election on November 3. While Taipei has enjoyed a resurgence of bipartisan support in Washington and the Trump administration has made unprecedented overtures, President Donald Trump himself has expressed skepticism about Taiwan’s strategic value. Democratic nominee Joe Biden has previously said Congress should decide whether the US should defend Taiwan in any attack. Analysts such as Easton have gamed out scenarios of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan for years, based on military exercises, arms purchases and strategy documents from the major players. Most of them foresee China going for a quick knockout, in which the PLA overwhelms the main island before the US could help out.

Lopsided battle?

ON paper, the military balance heavily favors Beijing. China spends about 25 times more on its military than Taiwan, according to estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and has a clear conventional edge on everything from missiles and fighter jets to warships and troop levels—not to mention its nuclear arsenal. Beijing’s optimistic version of events goes something like this: Prior to an invasion, cyber and electronic warfare units would target Taiwan’s financial system and key infrastructure, as well as US satellites to reduce notice of impending ballistic missiles. Chinese vessels could also harass ships around Taiwan, restricting vital supplies of fuel and food. Airstrikes would quickly aim to kill Taiwan’s top political and military leaders, while also immobilizing local defenses. The Chinese military has described some drills as “decapitation” exercises, and satellite imagery shows its training grounds include full-scale replicas of targets such as the Presidential Office Building. An invasion would follow, with PLA warships and submarines traversing some 130 kilometers across the Taiwan Strait. Outlying islands such as Kinmen and Pratas could be quickly subsumed Continued on A2

n JAPAN 0.4564 n UK 62.5611 n HK 6.2422 n CHINA 7.1153 n SINGAPORE 35.6132 n AUSTRALIA 34.6718 n EU 56.8865 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.8967

Source: BSP (October 9, 2020)


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