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overheating I
By Bianca Cuaresma
NG Bank Manila economist Joey Cuyegkeng believes a few cracks are already showing in the country’s fastgrowing economy, hinting of potential overheating down the line. This is despite the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s (BSP) repeated assurance that the economy can handle the pressure.
Cuyegkeng said strong liquidity conditions and loan growth, plus the most recent upside surprise to the September inflation print, add up and amplify the concerns of overheating in the local economy. “These developments add to a growing list of data indicating the possible beginnings of overheating. The list includes imbalances—deterioration of the trade deficit and current account, acceleration in fiscal spending and a wider budget deficit,” the private economist added.
An overheating economy is one whose capacity to produce cannot keep up with the pace of its demand expansion. Inefficient supply allocations also arise, as stakeholders start overestimating the economy’s potential for further growth. Overheating in the economy could feed into a high economic growth that is unstable and unsustainable, and ultimately triggers a significant increase in the country’s inflation rate. Latest data from the Central
Bank showed cash supply in the country—broadly measured as M3—accelerated to 15.4 percent in August from the 13.5 percent in July. While the BSP does not give actual projections for the country’s M3 growth, officials earlier said they expect liquidity expansion to be around 9 percent to 12 percent for 2017. The 15.4-percent acceleration in August, Cuyegkeng said, is also stronger than expected, per their current models. The economist said ING Bank antici-
pated only a marginal acceleration of M3 to around 14 percent in the month—still within their so-called sweet spot of noninflationary money-supply growth of 10 percent to 15 percent. The strong bank lending was also flagged by Cuyegkeng, saying the 20.4-percent loan growth in August beat their anticipation of a moderation of credit expansion, as compared to the 19.7-percent increase in July. “The acceleration we saw may Continued on A2
No stopping rapid hike in Manila office-space lease
D
By Roderick L. Abad | Contributor
espite the looming slowdown in the growth of the information technology and business-process outsourcing (ITBPO) industry—the biggest workplace occupier in the country today—Manila will continue to post the highest increments in prime-office rents among the global cities in Asia Pacific up to 2020, with a projected cumulative increase of 19.1 percent. PESO exchange rates n US 50.9510
Per the three-year forecast of Knight Frank (KF) for 15 Grade A office markets in the region that was announced by leading realestate service provider Santos Knight Frank (SKF) during the recent launch of the fourth edition of Global Cities: The 2018 Report in the Philippines, strong demand from the offshoring and outsourcing market will continue to push rental levels upward in the country’s capital. This shows that Manila is fast becoming a global city and is now a vital hub for industries such as information technology and business-process management (ITBPM), according to Rick Santos, chairman and CEO of SKF. “After witnessing unprecedented growth in this megacity over the last decade, we expect Ma-
nila’s expansion to accelerate along with the Philippines’s booming economy, as demand for space remains robust,” he said, while citing that more than 3 million square meters of new office space will be added to the market in the next four years Brisbane, which is just 2.6-percent shy of matching the growth pace of the frontrunner, is likely to register the second-highest level of increases in prime lease rates at 16.5 percent between 2017 and 2020. Just this year, the Australian city has seen rental growth returning following years of contraction since 2013. Likewise, Singapore, a highly developed city-state that has experienced office lease softening since the second quarter of 2015, is bucking the downward trend, with a spike on
lease charges at 15.8 percent, as demand begins to exceed supply. Bangkok will have the fourthfastest rise in asking fees at 11.4 percent. Hong Kong is next with rental hike at 10 percent due to an anticipated constant influx of tenants from mainland China. Completing the 13 markets that will enjoy a surge in lease growth over the three years are Bengaluru (formerly Bangalore) at 8.7 percent; Seoul, 8.1 percent; Mumbai, 7.7 percent; Melbourne, 7.4 percent; Sydney, 5.8 percent; New Delhi, 4.6 percent; Kuala Lumpur, 2.5 percent; and Tokyo, 1.8 percent. Despite healthy demand, Shanghai (-0.2 percent) and Beijing (-0.3 percent) are the only two markets projected to see softening of rents, as more inventory of office spaces is added to these Chinese
cities over the period. “On a regional basis, the performance and fundamentals of the Manila office market look solid. While some of the other Southeast Asian markets are seeing demand [to] remain sluggish and the major Chinese cities are seeing huge amounts of new supply, the Manila market has one of the tightest vacancy rates in the region, and looks set for a strong 2018,” said Nicholas Holt, Asia Pacific head of research at SKF.
‘No effect’
THE demand for office spaces will not be affected by the perceived weakening IT-BPO momentum. This was underscored by SKF top executives despite reports on the sluggish industry growth. Continued on A2
n japan 0.4519 n UK 67.4999 n HK 6.5263 n CHINA 7.6538 n singapore 37.4392 n australia 40.0628 n EU 59.9184 n SAUDI arabia 13.5866
Source: BSP (5 October 2017 )
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Economy showing more signs of