ESCALATION OF TRADE TENSIONS TO PUSH EASING CYCLE FURTHER–FITCH THINK TANK By Bianca Cuaresma
headwind to growth over the coming quarters,” Fitch Solutions said. “This would likely see the BSP embark on a more aggressive easing cycle into 2020 to help support the economy as external demand wanes,” it added. Despite the still-positive domestic consumption outlook, Fitch Solutions said the slowing global growth and persistent Sino-American trade tensions will continue to weigh on growth over the coming quarters. “The escalation in trade tensions between the US and China in May will deepen the external drag on the Philippine economy. The US and China accounted for
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HE looming trade war between the United States and China may push the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to aggressively ease its monetary-policy stance up until 2020. In a research note published recently, Fitch Solutions—the research arm of the Fitch Group—flagged trade tensions as one of the major downside risks to the local economy. “A major downside risk stems from a greater escalation of Sino-American trade tension, resulting in a persistent
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15.6 percent and 12.9 percent respectively of exported goods from the Philippines in 2018, with Hong Kong and Japan also key markets accounting for 14.2 percent and 14 percent of exports respectively,” the think tank said. “Increased trade tensions between the US and China have had a ripple effect across the Asia region, weakening demand across the supply chain and dampening business confidence in the first half of 2019. “A further escalation of tensions or prolonged period of the tariffs introduced in May could likely lead us to revise down our [Philippine] growth forecast of 6.3
percent in 2020,” the research group said. The BSP already started to ease its monetary-policy stance in May, with a 25-basis-point cut to the overnight reverse repurchase rate effective on May 10. BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno told reporters their decision to cut after several months of unchanged monetarypolicy stance and aggressive rate hikes in 2018 was based on their assessment that the inflation outlook continues to be manageable, with easing price pressures owing to the decline in food prices and improved supply conditions. Diokno also said the decision on Thursday was made in a “right policy point”
environment, with considerations to the country’s disappointing growth numbers in the first quarter of the year. The Monetary Board also decided to cut its reserve requirement ratios (RRR) by 200 basis points. The implementation of the cut will be in three stages: the first 100 basis point cut will be effective on May 31; another 50-basis-point cut will be implemented on June 28; and the last 50-basis-point cut will be effective on July 26. Economists earlier said the cut, both in the main policy rate and in the banks’ reserves ratio, will be positive for the country’s ailing growth numbers.
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n Monday, May 27, 2019 Vol. 14 No. 229
‘CSP for power needs tweaks to ensure supply’
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By Elijah Felice E. Rosales
@alyasjah
HE International Chamber of Commerce Philippines (ICCP) has asked the Philippine government to strengthen its competitive selection process (CSP) for power distributors to ensure that energy supply, reserves and demand are accurately projected. In a statement over the weekend, ICCP said it supports the mandatory implementation of the CSP. The circular on CSP, issued in 2015 by the Department of Energy (DOE), requires power distributors and cooperatives to procure their supply through the CSP instead of negotiating them with
generation firms. This was seen as a way to ensure more competitive rates, given that the Philippines has one of the most expensive electricity prices in the region. The ICCP statement came weeks after the Supreme Court ordered all power service agreements submit-
ted by energy distributors to the Energy Regulatory Commission to undergo CSP. In a ruling on May 3, the SC ruled in an en banc session the ERC committed grave abuse of discretion amounting to lack or excess of See “CSP,” A2
This approach ensures a wellcoordinated supply, reserves and demand forecast; strengthens the market power of smaller distribution utilities by aggregating their demand; and makes investment in power generation more attractive to investors, inducing greater competition that could lead to power supply security and competitive tariffs.” —ICCP
MERELY 2.3% SPENT FROM CHINA-FUNDED N.C.R.FLOOD PROJECT By Cai U. Ordinario @caiordinario
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EARLY two years into a project, the disbursement ratio for the China-funded Metro Manila Flood Management Project has remained at only 2.3 percent, according to documents from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The AIIB’s project implementation monitoring report for the project showed that the most recent disbursement worth $4.3 million for the project was on October 30, 2018. The $207.6-million loan was signed in December 2017 and became effective in March 2018. The total disbursed amount after the one made in October was at $4.8 million.
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ENATE President Vicente Sotto III allayed concerns by a jittery labor sector that last-ditch lobbying in Congress could still derail bicameral efforts and mangle the final version of the so-called End of Endo reform embodied in the Security of Tenure (SOT) bill. “We will not allow it,” the Senate President told the BusinessMirror over the weekend. The Senate President gave the assurance amid apprehensions by labor groups that lobbyists are working on their House counterparts to water down or avert approval of the awaited remedial legislation.
“It is best that the House just adopt our version,” the Senate leader said, adding, “then there will be no problems, at all.” The final version earlier approved by the Senate defined security of tenure for workers in a move to effectively avert abuses in the practice of illegal contractualization. See “SOT bill,” A2
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 52.5220
“The loan became effective on March 15, 2018. The project was affected slightly as IA [Implementing Agency] introduced certain changes in the technical designs [to optimize the functioning of pumping stations] and procurement method [from Civil Works procurement to Supply & Install],” AIIB stated. “The first contract for the modernization of pumping stations with updated designs [$6.5 million] was signed in December 2018. Designs of two other contracts have been finalized, while designs of remaining two are near finalization. Tendering for next batch is expected to commence in May [2019],” it added. However, the first See “Flood project,” A12
ASF watch: DA probes OFW breach of quarantine By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
“It is best that the House just adopt our version. Then there will be no problems at all.”—Sotto
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Senate will not allow mangling of SOT bill in bicam, says Sotto By Butch Fernandez
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A EASE OF DONATING Globe’s fintech arm Mynt, the operating company behind GCash, recently launched its corporate social responsibility arm called “GCash for Good.” Mynt is eyeing to help around 100 nongovernment organizations receive donations online by the end of 2019. Anthony Thomas (center), president of Mynt leads the launch of GCash for Good with NGO partners in Makati City. Story on page A2. CONTRIBUTED PHOTO
GR ICULTUR E Secretar y Emmanuel F. Piñol has appealed to government agencies to strictly implement measures against African swine fever (ASF) following a recent quarantine protocol breach that involved broadcaster Raffy Tulfo and an overseas Filipino worker (OFW) over processed meat products in her luggage. In a long Facebook post in Filipino on Sunday, Piñol reminded the Bureau of Customs and other concerned agencies to implement the memoranda issued by Department of Agriculture (DA) not Continued on A2
n JAPAN 0.4793 n UK 66.4823 n HK 6.6916 n CHINA 7.5991 n SINGAPORE 38.0815 n AUSTRALIA 36.2349 n EU 58.7248 n SAUDI ARABIA 14.0066
Source: BSP (24 May 2019 )