‘Interest rates to stay low for yrs’ By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad
T THE BROADER LOOK » A4-A5
ROTARY CLUB OF MANILA JOURNALISM AWARDS
2006 National Newspaper of the Year 2011 National Newspaper of the Year 2013 Business Newspaper of the Year 2017 Business Newspaper of the Year 2019 Business Newspaper of the Year
AP/AARON FAVILA
PHL HEALTH SYSTEM’S HOWLING ISSUES HAMPER FIGHT VS PANDEMIC
HE threat of economic recession due to coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic is leaving central banks across the world no choice but to keep policy rates low, or even negative, for a longer time, Moody’s Investor Services said. “We expect the resulting global economic recession to compel central banks to maintain low or even negative interest rates for several more years,” the debt watcher said in a report on Wednesday. Moody’s, however, warned that having low interest rates for a long period could erode the profits of the banking sector. “In addition to deteriorating asset quality, banks that predominantly finance their lending with customer deposits rather than borrowing on wholesale markets will see profitability eroded by persistently lower in-
terest rates,” the credit-rating firm said. “This is because banks are generally reluctant to impose negative rates on their retail customers in most jurisdictions, while market borrowings follow rates downward,” it added. To recall, Moody’s said that central banks have been aggressively cutting policy rates to boost market appetite amid the pandemic. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), for example, cut key policy rates by 50 basis points (bp), bringing overnight repurchase rate to 2.75 percent ahead of the May 21 policy meeting. It has also brought down the reserve requirement ratio on reservable liabilities of universal and commercial banks by 200 bp to 12 percent. Analysts said that trimming policy rates could shield the Philippines from the ill effects of the pandemic on the economy, noting that this boosts liquidity, de-
mand for loans and investor confidence. Apart from potential pandemic-induced recession, low oil prices could also keep the interest rates at the current level, the credit-rating agency added. “The deflationary effects of a reduction in aggregate demand coupled with the decline in oil prices will keep interest rates depressed for the near future, from already low levels before the crisis,” the report said. On top of low interest rates, the debt watcher said that measures being implemented by the government to contain the virus, such as the lockdowns, have also prompted businesses to suffer with revenue and profit dips. The economic slowdown is seen weighing on the cash flow of the borrowers, with banks anticipating higher nonperforming loans this year.
See “Interest,” A2
BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business
EJAP JOURNALISM AWARDS
BUSINESS NEWS SOURCE OF THE YEAR (2017, 2018)
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
2018 BANTOG MEDIA AWARDS
PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY
DATA CHAMPION
STIMULUS PLAN WIDENS www.businessmirror.com.ph
n
Thursday, May 21, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 224
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 16 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
DEFICIT TO 9% OF GDP STIMULUS PACKAGE, BIG OR SMALL, MUST BE FOCUSED—EXPERTS By Cai U. Ordinario
L
OCAL economists have expressed concern that if a stimulus package is too small, even more Filipinos will fall into poverty. On the other hand, a package that’s too big could lead to high leakage, robbing resources from those who need it the most. Economists believe that the coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic will set back the country’s efforts to reduce poverty rate to 14 percent by 2022—but a poorly targeted and insufficient stimulus may also have a similar outcome, if not worse. On Tuesday, Sen. Ralph Recto, who served as the country’s Socioeconomic Planning Secretary during the Global Economic Crisis in 2009, recommended that the stimulus package of the government be increased to P1 trillion. His views triggered differing reactions from economists sought for comment by the BusinessMirror. “Government should not be reluctant to spend for health, safety nets and employment. That said, spending should likewise be targeted and efficient,” Action for Economic Reforms (AER) coordinator Filomeno Sta. Ana III told the BusinessMirror. “Recto’s record on fiscal policy is poor; he favors populist spending that results in massive leakage. His proposal has to be scrutinized and vetted,” Sta. Ana added.
Scrutiny, regardless of size
WORK at the North Luzon Expressway Harbor Link C3-R10 Section project resumes today, after construction workers have all tested negative for Covid-19. They will remain on site until the project is completed on June 15. The segment is an elevated expressway touted to reduce travel time between Quezon City and Manila to 15 minutes. ROY DOMINGO
T
By Bernadette D. Nicolas
HE Executive’s proposed P170-billion fiscal stimulus program to keep the economy afloat amid the fallout from the pandemic will widen the country’s budget deficit to 9 percent of GDP, or P1.7 trillion based on constant 2018 prices.
Based on Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III’s presentation to lawmakers on Tuesday, the proposed program—a combination of the second phase of the Bayanihan to Heal As One Act and CREATE, the revised version of the Citira—has a combined value of P173 billion because he only included the total cost for Bayanihan II (P131 billion) and the immediate reduction of the corporate income
tax from 30 percent to 25 percent CIT (P41.96 billion). He did not include the P3.78 billion from the additional two-year sunset period for companies to keep enjoying existing fiscal incentives. Citira, or the Corporate Income Tax and Incentives Rationalization Act approved in 2019 by the House of Representatives and pending in the Senate, has been
THE AER officer said that while the economy is in a good fiscal position, owing to the reforms the administration introduced in the past three year such as the tax reform program, a stimulus package should still be a targeted one. He said even if the proposed stimulus package at the House of Representatives estimated at P568 billion is significantly smaller than Recto’s proposal, this should still be scrutinized for the sake of transparency and accountability. Sta. Ana said that any stimulus package, regardless of the size, should be well targeted. He recommends that government spend the stimulus on increasing testing, strengthening the health care system and other expenses including PCR testing, contact tracing, PPE and masks. He also recommended that funds be channeled to the continuation of cash and wage subsidies for those under quarantine, as well as on efforts that will increase job creation. Continued on A2
See “Deficit ,” A2
Virus-fueled protectionist mode derails RCEP INDIA’S absence in some of the previous talks indicated that the trade deal is nowhere near conclusion, and it even spurred Japan to announce that it will not sign any agreement without India’s participation.
By Elijah Felice Rosales
I
T might be difficult to conclude the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) by the end of this year as planned, as parties are moving toward the direction of protecting their supply chains to the detriment of free trade. In its Global Trade Monitor for
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 50.7870
May, Moody’s said the coronavirus pandemic will accelerate the transfer of supply chains to regional and even domestic, from international. The health crisis, it argued, exposed the vulnerabilities of justin-time supply chain management, and this will likely trigger firms to relocate their factories closer to their final markets.
This shift in supply chains could delay the conclusion of the RCEP, as it is counterproductive to the objective of the agreement to liberalize trade. “A move to more regional supply chains, which was already occurring in the auto[motive] and electronics sectors, could also accelerate, See “RCEP,” A2
A BICYCLE shop at the Port Area in Manila finds itself doing brisk business as the demand for bicycles increased with people returning to work with the easing of quarantine rules. With the fear of contracting the virus still in people’s minds, biking is gaining popularity as an alternative to public transport. ROY DOMINGO
n JAPAN 0.4714 n UK 62.1988 n HK 6.5525 n CHINA 7.1531 n SINGAPORE 35.8514 n AUSTRALIA 33.1588 n EU 55.4746 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.5270
Source: BSP (May 20, 2020)