PHL keeps Baa2 rating amid virus–Moody’s By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad
T
HE Philippines’s credit rating is expected to remain unchanged in the next 12 to 18 months, after Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday affirmed the country’s Baa2 credit profile. The country kept its Baa2 credit rating with stable outlook despite economic challenges brought about by the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), Moody’s said. “The Philippines’s credit profile has been characterized in recent years by strong economic performance, a strengthening fiscal position and limited vulnerability to external shocks, although the global coronavirus outbreak pres-
A DEPARTMENT of Public Works and Highways worker inspects container vans converted to isolation facilities for coronavirus patients at the Cultural Center of the Philippines Complex in Pasay City. ROY DOMINGO
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ents near-term challenges to these trends,” Moody’s said. The debt watcher said the country’s rating was based on its “a3” economic strength, “baa2” institutions and governance strength, “ba1” fiscal strength and “baa” susceptibility to event risk. Moody’s decision to keep the Philippines’s credit rating mirrors Fitch’s earlier revision of its credit rating outlook of the country from “positive” to “stable.” “Moody’s expects the Philippines’s real GDP [gross domestic product] growth to remain robust relative to peers and that its fiscal metrics will continue to strengthen as the government continues to make progress on its socioeco-
nomic reform agenda, particularly on tax reform,” the agency said. However, the credit-rating firm said that GDP might contract by 2.5 percent this year. It maintained its inflation projection at 2.2 percent for 2020. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) recently reported that the economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the first quarter—the first since 1998—while inflation stood at 2.6 percent year-to-date. The pandemic, Moody’s said, is putting trade, supply chain linkages, investment, remittances and tourism at risk and the lockdown is not helping either because it is curtailing domestic demand. Continued on A2
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PHL FIRMS LOST P875B IN REVENUE FROM ECQ www.businessmirror.com.ph
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Wednesday, May 13, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 216
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 16 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
NCR, LAGUNA, CEBU CITY ON MODIFIED ECQ UNTIL MAY 31 By Samuel P. Medenilla
M
ORE workers may soon be able to go back to work as the government starts relaxing community quarantine protocols even in areas it deems “high risk” for novel coronavirus disease. On Tuesday Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque said the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) has recommended to reduce starting on May 16, 2020, the number of high-risk areas to three: the National Capital Region (NCR); province of Laguna; and the City of Cebu. “High-risk provinces, HUCs [highly urbanized cities] and ICCs [independent component cities] shall be placed under Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine [MECQ] until May 31, 2020,” Roque said in an online press briefing on Tuesday. High-risk areas are those that have case doubling time of Covid-19 cases in less than seven days and have utilization rate for their critical health-care facilities at greater than 70 percent. Compared to an ordinary ECQ, Roque explained, MECQ will allow more industries to operate albeit at a limited scale. Roque said the additional industries that will be allowed to operate in MECQ areas may be announced on Wednesday. The Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) earlier said the community quarantine implemented by the government since March to contain Covid-19 has led to the temporary displacement of over 2 million workers. A government survey of impacted firms showed Philippine companies, including agribusiness, lost P875 billion in revenue from the lockdowns.
A HOMELESS man walks past a row of shuttered businesses with a sign greeting President Duterte a happy birthday in Quezon City. NONIE REYES
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By Cai U. Ordinario
HILIPPINE companies, including agriculture businesses, lost P875.5 billion in revenues due to the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), according to the survey conducted by the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) and the Department of Finance (DOF).
Documents obtained by the BusinessMirror also revealed that micro, small and medium enterprises and large firms lost a total of P767 billion in revenues, while agriculture business lost P108.5 million in revenues. The top 10 industries most affected by the ECQ lost 74.3 percent of their sales as 135,438 firms were closed during the lockdown. Only 21,691 firms were open during this time. “Survey results corroborate the economic decline,” the document stated. The latest estimates from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) estimated that the
country’s GDP growth contracted 0.2 percent in the first quarter. The data also showed that in terms of job losses, the government estimates 2.24 million Filipinos lost their jobs during the ECQ. The survey results show that 74.4 percent of firms did not lay off their workers while 25.4 percent had to downsize their companies during the ECQ. However, it was estimated that 86 percent of workers in the agriculture sector were able to keep working in the farm. The estimated job losses in the top 10 hardest hit sectors reached 1.13 million, or a 2.6-per-
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cent decline in the country’s total employment.
Most affected industries
IN terms of income, the industry that was most affected by the ECQ were in the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector, where sales declined by 82.3 percent. It is estimated that 18,661 firms in the sector were closed due to the ECQ and only 1,874 firms were open. It is expected that the firms in this sector will be closed for nine months this year. This was followed by tourism, which saw revenues plunge 81.9 percent with 29,147 firms closed during the ECQ and only 2,686 firms were open during the lockdown. It is also expected that firms in this sector will remain closed for nine months this year. In terms of job losses in the top 10 hardest hit sectors, the construction and education sectors were the most affected with 689,974 and 130,514 jobs lost, respectively. This was followed by the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (74,758 jobs lost during ECQ), tourism (51,446), and finance and insurance activities (41,027). Meanwhile, among consum-
ers, the Neda and DOF survey showed 44 percent of respondents said their income was not enough to meet their basic needs. At least 44 percent of nongovernment worker respondents said they lost their jobs or sources of incomes. The top three needs of consumers, based on the survey, are access to food supply and essentials; more efficient health system; and transportation. The firms, meanwhile, listed as their top three needs: deferred payment to government, banks and utilities; tax discounts or tax credits; and low-interest loans from government and banks. The primary concerns of agribusinesses were cash assistance; production support—seeds, planting materials, fertilizer, etc.; and machinery and equipment—tractors, cultivators and pumps, etc. The consumer survey of Neda and DOF had 389,859 respondents and was administered between April 5 and 8; while the MSME and large business survey had 44,097 respondents and administered between April 4 and 8. The agriculture survey had 6,863 respondents and was administered between April 3 and 8.
See banner story on A1, “PHL firms lost P875B in revenue from ECQ”
Zoning scheme
THE IATF also recommended that local government units (LGUs) in MECQ areas implement a new zoning system so they could transition to the so-called new normal by next month. See “MECQ,” A2
ENGINEER Dindo Sanchez shows the newly built crematorium for coronavirus victims at the Pasig City Cemetery. The government has required hospitals to cremate the body of a Covid-19 patient within 12 hours after death. Pasig Mayor Vico Sotto and Makati Mayor Abby Binay earlier announced that their respective city governments would shoulder the cremation expenses of their residents who die of the disease. NONOY LACZA
n JAPAN 0.4678 n UK 62.1143 n HK 6.4962 n CHINA 7.0925 n SINGAPORE 35.5339 n AUSTRALIA 32.6607 n EU 54.4212 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4083
Source: BSP (May 12, 2020)