DOF: Drivers tamed, inflation benign T
HE Department of Finance (DOF) believes inflation will remain benign in the coming months as the usual drivers of price increases will have minimal impact due to the lockdown and “new normal.” In an economic bulletin, the DOF said these usual drivers include oil prices, which have been posting declines in the past few months. The DOF said average prices of nonfood items decelerated to 0.7 percent year-on-year as the slump in global oil prices drove down domestic pump prices and, consequently, transport costs. “Core inflation in April was 2.8 percent, down from more than 3 percent in March, indicating easing inflation in the next few months,” DOF said. Core inflation, the PSA said, is used as an indicator of long-term inflation trend and future inflation. Long-term inflation is affected by demand conditions and influenced
A PICKUP truck loaded with bicycles is seen on Roxas Boulevard in Manila. As the country seeks to get its economy back on track after the devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic, bicycle use—which perceptibly became more popular during the lockdowns—is being encouraged as a way to avoid unsafe crowding on trains and buses. BERNARD TESTA
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by monetary policy. It measures the change in average consumer prices after excluding items in the basket of goods with volatile price movements. Core inflation excludes items such as rice, corn, meat, fish, vegetables, and petroleum and fuels for personal use, which together account for 22.8 percent of the Consumer Price Index, or basket of goods. “Still, it is important that in this time of expanded community quarantine, the supply chain of basic goods and other necessary items, while subject to the requirements of public health, should not be broken,” the DOF said. Earlier, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development (Acerd) Director Alvin P. Ang told the BusinessMirror that a 2.2-percent inflation rate was higher than his initial forecast. However, Ang said inflation will remain low for the rest of the year given the extension of the lockdown and the generally slow
growth in the global economy. University of Asia and the Pacific School of Economics Dean Cid Terosa told this newspaper that if the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) is lifted and the spread of the virus is contained, only then can demand recover. This recovery could allow inflation—an indicator of demand—to rise in June and peak at around 2.8 percent to 3 percent by the end of the first semester. Terosa said the recovery of spending and “pent-up demand” will allow inflation to increase beyond 3 percent. Unionbank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion agreed, but said the recovery in demand may still be muted immediately after the ECQ and the general community quarantine (GCQ) are lifted. A true recovery in demand, Asuncion told this newspaper, would only be possible if a vaccine is discovered and successfully administered. “A vaccine discovered and its success-
ful administration to the population will definitely turbo-boost demand immediately,” Asuncion said. Data showed inflation in NCR eased to 1.2 percent in April 2020, from 1.7 percent in the previous month. The year-on-year inflation in the area in April 2019 was higher at 3.1 percent. The slowdown in inflation in NCR was due to declines in the annual rates posted in the indices of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 1.7 percent; and transport at 6.5 percent. Meanwhile, the annual inflation in areas outside NCR (AONCR) also slowed to 2.5 percent in April 2020, from 2.7 percent in March 2020. In April 2019 inflation in AONCR was posted at 3 percent. Further drop in the annual rate of transport index at 6 percent during the month primarily pushed down the inflation in AONCR.
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Monday, May 11, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 214
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 16 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK
MARCO POLO DAVAO CLOSURE SPOOKS TOURISM INDUSTRY By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo Special to the BusinessMirror
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A CONSTRUCTION crane is silhouetted against the sunset in Pasig City. The government said it is banking on the resumption of bigticket infrastructure projects under its Build Build Build program to lift the economy battered by the pandemic. BERNARD TESTA
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By Elijah Felice Rosales
XPORTERS are pleading with lawmakers to approve within May the multibillion-peso stimulus bill filed in Congress, citing the desperate need for a rescue for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) after two months of Covid-induced lockdowns disrupted operations. In a letter last week, the Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (Philexport) asked legislators to pass the Philippine Economic Stimulus Act (PESA) bill within a month. The measure, with a proposed funding of P485 billion, seeks to inject cash in various sectors, including to MSMEs, to rejuvenate the economy in the lockdown aftermath. “Because of the urgent nature and impact of this bill, we strongly call for the bill to be passed in a month’s time especially for the benefit of our MSMEs and their stakeholders, which account for some 60 percent of the country’s employment and 30 percent of our GDP,” read the letter mailed to the principal authors of the measure. Further, Philexport detailed in the
letter its reservations on the PESA bill, and proposed several changes to it intended to expand its coverage. For one, the group is disputing the measure’s seeming concentration of assistance to firms based in Luzon, where the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) has been in place since mid-March.
Reservations
IT argued that the ECQ may not be implemented in Visayas and Mindanao but its effects are felt there, as business operations in these islands are likely linked to the supply chains in Luzon. Likewise, Philexport said that Negosyo Centers should be allowed to assess loan applications of MSMEs, as they are located across the country and can, therefore, reach firms in
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 50.5140
rural areas. The Small Business (SB) Corp., tasked to handle the PESA bill’s P20-billion funding for MSME lending, is apparently not present in all provinces. In anticipation of the large number of MSMEs that will borrow from the government, Philexport recommended that the loans be distributed through bank transfers to reduce the movement of people and to facilitate the release. Echoing the concern raised by the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) last week, Philexport proposed that the P10-billion allocation for loans to farmers and fishermen be doubled. Increasing the amount will ensure that the issues of the agriculture sector on productivity, technology and climate change are considered, it argued.
Farmers, fishermen
IN a statement, the PCCI called on lawmakers to tweak the current version of the PESA bill and increase the allocation for loans of farmers and fishermen. Doing so, PCCI President Benedicto V. Yujuico explained, will ensure a sufficient budget is available to cover for the agriculture sector’s needs. Food producers, he noted, are already reeling from the income losses they suffered due to logistical barriers that come with the ECQ implemented in the whole of Luzon. He said the lockdown restric-
tions in effect are making it difficult for goods, including perishable items, to be transported to markets. The national government has repeatedly admonished local government units against arbitrarily blockading the transport of produce, but even with relaxed checkpoints in major highways, farmers have said the restrictions in the community level make transporting goods a tough chore. “Highly perishable produce have found it difficult to move their way into markets such that they have to be thrown away,” Yujuico added. “The downstream industries such as food processing, retailing and restaurants are similarly impacted, having to operate only partially, if at all.” Also, Philexport suggested adding a provision to the PESA bill requiring all state agencies to do their part in hastening the computerization of their functions, particularly for purposes of trade facilitation, service continuity and ease of doing business. The PESA bill is projected by government economists to swell the country’s budget deficit to 7 percent of GDP this year. The deficit target for 2020 is around P1 trillion, or about 5.3 percent of GDP, but the PESA bill is seen to add at least 2 percent. The PESA bill, authored by Reps. Joey S. Salceda of Albay, Stella Luz A. Quimbo of Marikina and Sharon S. Garin of AAMBIS-OWA Party-list, is now awaiting deliberations in the House of Representatives.
CHILLING effect. That was how tourism stakeholders essentially described the closure of the 22-year-old Marco Polo Davao on the country’s tourism industry. The hotel, founded by a company of Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III from which he has divested, confirmed reports over the weekend that it would close on June 15, due to the effect of the novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19) on guest bookings. The company that owns the hotel, Halifax Hotel Davao Inc., said it is giving retirement or separation pay to its 270 organic employees. “Everyone was speechless. People really didn’t know how to react,” said Marge Munsayac, director of sales and marketing of Maribago Bluewater, which operates a hotel and resort in Mactan and Bohol. “Of all hotels, why Marco Polo? It’s an icon of Davao. We never had an inkling that business was pretty bad. Then you start to ask, if a big company like Marco Polo can close, what more the smaller companies? It’s a bit worrisome.” For his part, Tourism Congress of the Philippines president Jose C. Clemente Jr. said, “This is a reality that most stakeholders are facing as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, not only here, but around the globe. It shows that even the tallest of giants can also fall. Yet, we remain hopeful that tourism will again rise and we will see this and other properties that have ceased operations back in business sooner than later.” Still, he said many hotels were already pondering their own possible closures since Covid-19. “If it was just being discussed before in hospitality circles, it’s now a reality, especially in places which cannot expect an immediate return of tourism, whether local or international. They probably have one to three months maximum to make a decision on how to proceed, not unless something miraculous happens [i.e., a vaccine],” he added.
‘Not a white flag of surrender’
COMMENTING on the closure, Dominguez messaged a colleague in the Cabinet that he had nothing to do with the decision because he already divested from Halifax. “The board’s decision is, however, very rational and responsible as they prioritized the interests of the employees and suppliers by paying them while they still could, instead of continuing operating at a loss and risking not having the funds in the future.” He underscored though, “The action should not be taken as a signal to the rest of the economy, but only as a decision of one private enterprise that is acting in the interest of its employees. They have not raised the white flag but executed a strategic ‘advance to the rear’ as the US Marines did in a crucial battle during the Korean War. The hotel will reopen when the market signals a return of demand for its services.” The Sultan of Brunei, Hassanal Bolkiah, is a personal friend of Dominguez and has long been rumored to be a major investor in the hotel. As such, with seeming infinite resources, the hotel decision to shut down is telling about the immense impact of Covid-19 on the tourism industry, in the view of some stakeholders. “There’s too much uncertainty. It is so hard to plan. And of course, all governments were taken by surprise and we know money is finite [in terms of financial assistance]. So I feel, more [hotels], will close, especially the smaller players,” said TCP’s Clemente. “If a large player [like Marco Polo Davao] has closed, although they said it was temporary, what more the smaller ones?” He ventured that the large hotels are already thinking of going the way of Marco Polo Davao. “They are just surviving here in the NCR (National Capital Region) because they still service essential See “Marco Polo,” A2
n JAPAN 0.4753 n UK 62.5313 n HK 6.5172 n CHINA 7.1297 n SINGAPORE 35.7267 n AUSTRALIA 32.8038 n EU 54.7218 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4525
Source: BSP (May 8, 2020)