BusinessMirror May 08, 2020

Page 1

BSP still sees ‘vigorous rebound’ T HE Philippines is expected to see a “vigorous rebound” of economic activity once the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) is lifted and could even bounce to as high as 7.8 percent next year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said. This breath of optimism came after the government announced Thursday that the local economy shrank 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year—the lowest recorded growth since 1998—due to the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic. “The BSP expects a U-shaped growth trajectory with economic activity rebounding vigorously once the ECQ is lifted. A contraction ranging from 1.0 percent to 0.0 percent is

FOR documentation purposes, Barangay Councilor Josephine Bartolata takes a photo of Paquito Mendoza, a senior citizen who received financial help from the local government in Balut, Tondo, Manila, as part of the city’s campaign to help those affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. NONIE REYES

ROTARY CLUB OF MANILA JOURNALISM AWARDS

2006 National Newspaper of the Year 2011 National Newspaper of the Year 2013 Business Newspaper of the Year 2017 Business Newspaper of the Year 2019 Business Newspaper of the Year

forecasted for 2020. Thereafter, the economy is expected to bounce back to 7.8 percent growth in 2021,” the Central Bank said. For the prices of goods and commodities, the BSP said these are expected to remain stable and within the expected range for this year and next year. The BSP reiterated its forecast of a 2-percent inflation rate on average for 2020 and 2.5 percent for 2021. The 2-percent forecast for 2020 is lower than earlier projected due to the lower-than-expected print in April at 2.2 percent. The 2021 forecast, however, is higher than earlier seen due to the projected recovery in domestic economic activity and higher liquidity growth.

The BSP said its expectation of a “vigorous” economic comeback is hinged on proper health and fiscal measures in place. The BSP said these measures, along with monetary policy responses, will have to maintain a “dominant role” in the country’s response. “Monetary policy and financial sector regulations will continue to offer support as needed to mitigate the economic impact on people and firms,” the BSP said.

Cascading impact–Diokno

FOR its part, BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said they remain ready to deploy more measures if warranted by the economic situation. See “BSP,” A2

BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business

EJAP JOURNALISM AWARDS

BUSINESS NEWS SOURCE OF THE YEAR (2017, 2018)

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

2018 BANTOG MEDIA AWARDS

PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY

DATA CHAMPION

22-YR LOW IN GROWTH www.businessmirror.com.ph

n

Friday, May 8, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 211

P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 16 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK

SEEN WORSE IN 2ND QTR T

‘FUNDAMENTALS’ TO QUICKEN RECOVERY, QUESTION IS WHEN

By Cai U. Ordinario

HE worst is not over for the Philippine economy. No less than the country’s chief economist, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua, admitted GDP growth could be worse in the second quarter, as it posted the steepest decline in two decades for first-quarter growth.

By Bernadette D. Nicolas

F

INANCE Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III said on Thursday the 0.2-percent contraction in the country’s economy in the first quarter was an inevitable outcome given the challenges faced by the country during the period. Dominguez also said he expects the country’s economy in the second quarter to head deeper in the negative territory due to the extended lockdown before it bounces back in the second half of the year. However, the country’s finance chief said the hoped-for economic expansion will still hinge on the whether or not a cure or vaccine has been released commercially by then. “The outbreak of this lethal virus, which subsequently froze economies and shuttered businesses in the four corners of the world, started to take its toll on the domestic economy in February as the lockdown in China caused supply-chain disruptions and stopped arrivals of Chinese tourists, hence adversely affecting Philippine trade and tourism,” he said in a statement. The Bureau of Customs reported a year-on-year decline in the country’s trade volume with China in the first half of February, with the number of incoming twenty-footer equivalent units (TEUs) or cargo containers falling by a sizeable 62 percent from the year-ago level. Tourism in the country also took a big hit from China’s lockdown, initially covering its bustling manufacturing hub Wuhan, ground zero of the outbreak. China’s lockdown stopped arrivals of Chinese tourists. The travel restrictions imposed by South Korea due to the contagion also affected the country’s tourism. South Korea and China are the country’s top two sources of tourist arrivals.

SOCIOECONOMIC Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua: “The reality and the emerging number is that we are going to see flat growth or slightly negative. And that is where we are today.” NEDA

Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III separately weighed in, saying he expects the economy in the second quarter to head deeper into negative territory due to the extended Covid-19-induced lockdown before starting to crawl back to recovery in the second semester. See separate story at right. The Philippine economy contracted 0.2 percent in the first quarter, its steepest decline in 22 years, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Thursday, an announcement that surprised no one, given the combined impact of the lockdown that paralyzed business and before that, Taal Volcano’s eruption. “Well, second quarter, as I mentioned, will be difficult, because we saw the extension, the full-month extension of the ECQ [enhanced community quarantine] in April. The good news is, as of May 1, many areas of the country have moved to GCQ [general community quarantine],” Chua said in a briefing. “What this means is that there is a chance that we minimize the contraction. The expected contraction in the second quarter,” he added. Chua, who is also the National

Economic and Development Authority (Neda) Director General, explained that under the ECQ only 25 percent of the economy can run while under the GCQ, about 75 percent of the economy is permitted to operate. With this, Chua said, economic growth may still be within expectations this year. The government initially estimated that the economy may contract by 0.8 percent to as much as zero or flat growth this year due to Covid-19.

Taal eruption

ASIDE from these, Dominguez said the January 12 Taal Volcano eruption also did not bode well for the country’s economic performance for the first quarter of the year. “It did not help first-quarter growth,” said Dominguez, “that the local economies, particularly in the subregion of Calabarzon [Cavite-Laguna-Batangas-Rizal-Quezon], were adversely affected in January by the eruption of Taal Volcano.” See “Recovery,” A2

Target-setting

THE growth estimates of the government are a far cry from the targets set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent. “A target is a target. If you move the target all the time, then that’s not a target, so the target stays. But the reality and the emerging number is that we are going to see flat growth or slightly negative. And that is where we are today,” Chua explained. The Neda chief said the current estimates of zero to -0.8 percent will also be kept despite the 0.2-percent contraction in first-quarter GDP. Continued on A2

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 50.5560

A PHILIPPINE Air Force officer uses a quadcopter drone to monitor the activities of residents of Barangay Addition Hills in Mandaluyong City, which was placed under a weeklong lockdown due to the high incidence of coronavirus infections in the area. NONOY LACZA

SEGUNDO PASCUAL PECO, 67, of Barangay Kalentong, Mandaluyong City, uses as a Covid-19 shield the improvised mask he made on New Year’s Eve in 2017 to protect himself from fireworks fumes. He said he has yet to receive his pension, or any assistance from the DSWD, for which he said he coined: “Daming Sinasabi, Walang Dumarating.” BERNARD TESTA

n JAPAN 0.4767 n UK 62.4316 n HK 6.5221 n CHINA 7.1171 n SINGAPORE 35.5628 n AUSTRALIA 32.3356 n EU 54.5954 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4637

Source: BSP (May 7, 2020)


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.