BusinessMirror May 08, 2019

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DOLLAR RESERVES UP BY $350M IN APRIL T

A TELLER at CityState Bank in Makati City counts dollar bills in this 2018 BusinessMirror file photo. NONIE REYES

DEPT. OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY

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HE country’s dollar reserves rose for the sixth straight month in April, as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) took advantage of the relative strength of the Philippines’s external position to rebuild its foreign-exchange reserves. The BSP on Tuesday reported that gross international reserves rose by $350 million to $83.96 billion, from $83.61 billion as of end-March. This is the sixth consecutive month that the GIR increased from its previous month’s level. The country’s GIR hit its lowest level in 2018 at $74.7 billion in October. Half a year later, the level was up by about $9 billion. The country’s GIR level is the foreignexchange holdings of the Central Bank in a given period. The GIR is a crucial component of the economy as it is often used to manage

the country’s foreign-exchange rate against excess volatilities. The GIR took a beating toward the end of the year in 2018 and hit seven-year lows, as the BSP battled to smoothen out volatilities, causing the local currency to weaken against the dollar. The drop in GIR also came at a time when sentiment was down due to the accelerating inflation, which peaked at 6.7 percent in October. The BSP said the GIR in April serves as an “ample external liquidity buffer” as it is equivalent to 7.4 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income. It is also equivalent to five times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 3.5 times based on residual maturity.

Bianca Cuaresma

BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business

www.businessmirror.com.ph

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Wednesday, May 8, 2019 Vol. 14 No. 210

3% April inflation marks 16-mo. low despite polls By Rea Cu

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@ReaCuBM

VEN though election-related spending started in March, the country’s inflation level remained on a downtrend, posting only 3 percent for April coming from 3.3 percent last March. The 3-percent inflation level for April 2019 is the lowest posted since January 2018 at 3.4 percent, making it a 16-month low. This was slightly below the median market forecast of 3.1 percent, and well within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s (BSP) forecast of 2.7 to 3.5 percent for the period.

When asked if midterm election-related spending had an effect on the country’s recent inflation print, as campaign season for the local election kicked off last March, some economists explained that this provided little impact. They said national elections, which are not due until 2022,

may have more of an effect on the country’s inflation level. “Election spending appears to have been moderated by the realization that spending alone won’t assure desirable results. If it were presidential and vice presidential elections, the effect would have been greater [on inflation],”

“Election spending appears to have been moderated by the realization that spending alone won’t assure desirable results. If it were presidential and vice presidential elections, the effect would have been greater [on inflation].”—Terosa

University of Asia and the Pacific Dean of Economics Cid L. Terosa told the BusinessMirror in a text message. National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillon explained that if there is ample supply to meet the demand in line with election spending, then chances are inflation will remain steady. See “Inflation,” A2

By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo

@akosistellaBM Special to the BusinessMirror

HE Department of Tourism (DOT) has targeted a 31.5-percent increase in visitor arrivals from the Middle East to 108,170 in 2019, with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait accounting for the largest shares. This market, according to DOT Undersecretary for Tourism Development Planning Benito C. Bengzon, is projected to send 77,206 tourists from Saudi Arabia; 23,556 from the UAE; and 7,408 from Kuwait this year. “Shopping and sightseeing are the main activities of the tourists

By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM

T

HE further deceleration of inflation could steer the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’s (BSP) near-term policy bias toward easing, economists said on Tuesday, after the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) announced the April price growth numbers. Following the PSA’s announcement that inflation in April settled at 3 percent, BSP Governor Benjamin E. Diokno said the rate was consistent with the Central Bank’s expectations that it will fall within the target range of 2 percent to 4 percent for 2019 and 2020. As such, Diokno said the latest inflation number will be weighed against the upside and downside risks at its next monetary-policy meeting to “ensure that the monetary-policy stance remains consistent with the BSP’s primary mandate of price stability conducive to a balanced and sustainable growth of the economy.”

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 52.0060

Among the upside risks Diokno mentioned are the continued increase in global crude oil prices and the possibility of a prolonged El Niño episode. The weakening global economic environment could also present downside risks to inflation, according to the BSP governor. The latest inflation data, according to JP Morgan Research Economist Nur Raisah Rasid, will likely prompt a rate cut from the BSP “sooner than later.” “Morgan had penciled in a cut on account of slower growth and a lower inflation trajectory this year. While our baseline call remains for a cut in the third quarter, this week’s monetary-policy decision has become a close call and will likely hinge on the Central Bank’s interpretation of risks around the growth outlook amid rising external uncertainties,” Rasid said. Similar views were echoed by local economists during the day. See “BSP,” A8

Manufacturing output dips in March

T

‘Silent recession’

See “Halal,” A8

BUSINESS NEWS SOURCE OF THE YEAR

‘Lower inflation in April may drive BSP toward monetary-policy easing’

from the Middle East,” he noted. “And among the main purposes of visit are for pleasure or vacation, business, and visiting friends and relatives.” THIS year’s projected arrivals are a turnaround from the 11.34-percent drop to 82,251 in 2018, which a DOT official attributed to a regionwide “silent recession.” In an interview with the BusinessMirror, Dakila F. Gonzales, head of DOT’s Office of Product and Market Development for the Middle East, explained that “Gulf Coast Countries [GCC] are committed to develop their respective local tourism industries

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‘Arabic speakers, halal food key to attracting more Mideast tourists’

T

The BSP attributed the rise in the country’s GIR to the inflows arising from its foreign-exchange operations, the national government’s (NG) net foreign-currency deposits and BSP’s income from its investments abroad. The GIR level in April could have been higher, but it was tempered partially by payments made by the NG for servicing its foreign-exchange obligations, as well as revaluation losses from the BSP’s gold holdings, due to the decline in the price of gold in the international market. Earlier, economists at the First Metro Investment Corp. and the University of Asia and the Pacific said the local currency is expected to remain at a “slightly weaker bias,” at around the 52 to 53 range in the second quarter, as the BSP rebuilds its GIR.

PHILIPPINE hotels, resorts and tour operators entertain buyers at the Arabian Travel Market held recently in Dubai. Among the main challenges in attracting more tourists from the Middle East are the Philippines’s lack of halal food and Arabic-speaking tour guides. CONTRIBUTED PHOTO

HE Philippines’s manufacturing output for March 2019 decelerated by 5.4 percent, as two industries posted double-digit reductions, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed. Data released on Tuesday under the PSA’s Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (Missi), the country’s value of production index (VaPI) for March registered a decline of 5.4 percent coming from the 10.5-percent growth recorded in the same month for 2018. The reduction for the month was caused by sharp declines in three industries: food manufacturing at 20.3 percent, petroleum products at 13.2 percent and basic metals at 9.1 percent. See “Manufacturing,” A8

n JAPAN 0.4696 n UK 68.1227 n HK 6.6285 n CHINA 7.6907 n SINGAPORE 38.1556 n AUSTRALIA 36.3470 n EU 58.2571 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.8675

Source: BSP (7 May 2019 )


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BusinessMirror May 08, 2019 by BusinessMirror - Issuu