BusinessMirror May 06, 2020

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BSP sees lower ’20 inflation after April data T

HE prices of local goods and commodities will grow slower than earlier expected for the year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said after the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) announced a slowdown in inflation in April. In a statement on the mediumterm inflation, the BSP said their latest models indicate that inflation could settle at the low end of the government’s target range at 2 percent on average for this year. This is lower than the earlier 2.2-percent forecast for 2020. The statement was made after the PSA announced that inflation in April hit a five-month low to 2.2 percent.

CLAIMANTS of the government’s Social Amelioration Program line up for hours to sign forms at the Diosdado P. Macapagal Elementary School in Barangay Tayuman, Quezon City, to avail themselves of emergency cash subsidy as their livelihood has been most affected by the extended lockdowns due to the coronavirus pandemic. NONOY LACZA

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By Cai U. Ordinario

This is the slowest since November when inflation averaged 1.3 percent. If realized, a 2-percent inflation average for the year will mean the growth of consumer prices can slip below the government’s 2 to 4 percent target in some months of the year. Muted demand for various goods and services will likely keep inflation low, according to local economists. The increase in the price of commodities has been slowing since February when inflation slowed to 2.6 percent from 2.9 percent in January. “Contributing to the downtrend in the headline inflation in April 2020 was the further decrease in the annual rate of the transport index,” National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said. “Specifically, annual decline was

observed in petroleum and fuels for personal transport equipment at -28.6 percent in April 2020, from -12.3 percent in March 2020,” he added.

Experts weigh in

ATENEO Center for Economic Research and Development (ACERD) Director Alvin P. Ang told the BusinessMirror that the 2.2-percent inflation rate was higher than his initial forecast. However, Ang said inflation will remain low for the rest of the year given the extension of the lockdown and the general slow growth in the global economy. University of Asia and the Pacific School of Economics Dean Cid Terosa told the BusinessMirror that if the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ)

is lifted and the spread of the virus is contained, only then can demand recover. This recovery could allow inflation—an indicator of demand—to rise in June and peak at around 2.8 to 3 percent by the end of the first semester. Terosa said the recovery of spending and “pent-up demand” will allow inflation to increase beyond 3 percent. Unionbank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion agreed, but said the recovery in demand may still be muted immediately after the ECQ and the general community quarantine (GCQ) are lifted. A true recovery in demand, Asuncion told this newspaper, would only See “Inflation,” A2

BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business

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VIRUS LEAVES DEEP CUTS ON PHL FACTORY OUTPUT www.businessmirror.com.ph

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Wednesday, May 6, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 209

P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 16 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK

BOTTLES of liquor spill from a minivan as police investigators check on the vehicle, which crashed as it tried to evade a checkpoint in Barangay Bagong Bayan, Quezon City. Pasig City Police Chief Colonel Moises Villaceran said the police gave chase as the minivan sped toward C5 Road in Pasig City, where it hit a pursuing motorcycle cop before crashing into a tree. Investigators said shots were fired when police saw the driver pull a gun. The driver, Joselito delos Santos, a retired policeman, died at the Rizal Medical Center. His companion, his son Jayson who survived the crash, was taken to the Quirino Memorial Medical Center for medicolegal examination. BERNARD TESTA

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By Cai U. Ordinario

HE country’s manufacturing output in March posted its sharpest decline since December 2019, according to the results of the Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI).

Based on the latest data from think tank IHS Markit, the performance of Philippine factories likely deteriorated in April, when most manufacturers in Luzon were shuttered due to the enhanced community quarantine. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will release the April MISSI data in June. The March MISSI data from the PSA indicated that the Volume of Production Index (VoPI) contracted 6.3 percent in March. Data showed this is the largest decline since December 2019, when it contracted 7.2 percent. The VoPI contracted 8.8 percent in March 2019. “Fifteen major industry groups pulled down the VoPI with the following major industry groups exhibiting at least 25 percent decreases: petroleum products (-34.3 percent), tobacco products (-33.9 percent) and miscellaneous manufactures (-29 percent),” PSA said. PSA data showed the Value of Production Index (VaPI) fell by 11.3 percent in March 2020, the largest drop since April 2019 when it contracted 11.8 percent.

IHS Markit economist Lewis Cooper: “With measures to restrict the spread of the virus likely to continue for some time, and demand both at home and abroad essentially frozen, firms need to prepare for a tough second quarter.”

The MISSI data showed VaPI dropped by 1 percent in February 2020 and 4.4 percent in March 2019. Data also showed average capacity utilization increased to 84.5 percent in March 2020, from 84.4 percent in March 2019. However, this was lower than the 84.6 percent posted in February 2020. PSA said firms that operated at full capacity or at 90 percent to 100 percent accounted for nearly a third of manufacturing firms at 28.6 percent. “More than half (53.6 percent) operated at 70 to 89 percent capac-

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 50.5760

ity while almost one-fifth (17.9 percent) operated below 70 percent capacity,” it added. MISSI is a report that monitors the production, net sales, inventories and capacity utilization of selected manufacturing establishments to provide flash indicators on the performance of the manufacturing sector.

April performance

AMID the deterioration in the performance of the manufacturing sector in April, the Philippines was still the third best in Southeast Asia even as the region continues to grapple with the ill effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. The IHS Markit Philippines Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which was at 31.6 in April, was a reflection of the region’s overall deterioration during the month. However, the think tank said the PMI of the Philippines has the “most substantial deterioration in operating conditions in the series’ more than four-year history.” “Output, new orders and exports all declined at unprecedented rates, while firms’ confidence with regards to output over the year ahead sank to a fresh series low,” said IHS Markit. The PMI is a composite index aimed to gauge the health of the country’s manufacturing sector. It is calculated as a weighted average of five individual subcomponents. Readings above the 50 threshold signal a growth in the manufacturing sector, while readings below 50 show a deterioration in the industry.

Asean performance

FOR the month, the worst performing manufacturing sector was that of Indonesia’s, which saw a record low PMI of 27.5 followed by Myanmar’s 29. Singapore’s PMI was the only one which showed improvement during the month, but was still the third worst performing at 29.3, followed by Malaysia. The Philippines’ PMI of 31.6 was in the top three along with Vietnam’s 32.7 and Thailand’s 36.8. On average, the Asean’s headline PMI dropped to an all-time low of 30.7 in April, down from a prior record low of 43.4 in March, to indicate by far the largest monthly deterioration in manufacturing conditions since the series began in July 2012. “Central to the substantial deterioration were record rates of decline across all five components of the headline figure, with output, new orders, employment and pre-production inventories dropping markedly across the region to drag the PMI down further as the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak intensified. Meanwhile, firms’ output expectations for the year ahead sank to a fresh series low,” said IHS Markit economist Lewis Cooper. “Overall, April data highlight the substantial impact of the coronavirus pandemic on Asean manufacturers. With measures to restrict the spread of the virus likely to continue for some time, and demand both at home and abroad essentially frozen, firms need to prepare for a tough second quarter,” the economist added.

NTC STOPS ABS-CBN FROM AIRING RADIO AND TV PROGRAMS

AN employee lights candles in front of the headquarters of broadcast network ABSCBN on May 5, 2020, in Quezon City. AP/AARON FAVILA

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By Lorenz S. Marasigan

ROADCASTING giant ABS-CBN Corp. was told to stop airing its television and radio programs immediately by the National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) after the company’s franchise expired on Monday. In a cease-and-desist order (CDO) issued on Tuesday, the regulator directed the multimedia conglomerate to halt the operations of its television and radio broadcasting stations nationwide as it lacks a congressional franchise to do so, citing the Radio Control Law. The regulator insisted the move was not a blow to press freedom, because “there are other platforms where they can air their content,” and the CDO covers only the physical infrastructure. The frequencies remain with the Lopez-led group, pending the period within which they are being given a chance to explain, it added. The NTC order is a stunning reversal for those who had pinned their hopes on a provisional authority (PA) that several lawmakers and the Department of Justice (DOJ) had earlier indicated as a possible option for the broadcast giant. However, while Malacañang Palace in recent days insisted the NTC is an independent regulator, the agency’s officials were threatened with a graft case by the Office of the Solicitor General (OSG) should it proceed with issuing a PA. ABS-CBN’s franchise, granted by Republic Act (RA) 7966, lapsed on Monday. It failed to secure a congressional franchise, as lawmakers decided to “prioritize” other laws.

Continued on A2

n JAPAN 0.4738 n UK 62.9469 n HK 6.5233 n CHINA 7.1470 n SINGAPORE 35.6999 n AUSTRALIA 32.4951 n EU 55.1380 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4654

Source: BSP (May 5, 2020)


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