BusinessMirror May 01, 2020

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ILO: 300-M workers to lose jobs T

HE economic deterioration caused by the prolonged novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic is now expected to displace over 300 million workers worldwide, according to new estimates of the International Labor Organization (ILO). This is about a hundred million higher compared to the previous projection of the labor arm of the United Nations (UN). “Global working hours in the second quarter are expected to be 10.5 percent lower than in the last precrisis quarter. This is equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs, which represents a significant deterioration on ILO’s previous estimate of 195 million for the second quarter,” ILO said in its latest report. It attributed its higher estimated labor displacement to the “prolongation and extension of containment measures” now being implemented by at least 64 countries, including the Philippines. “Around 68 percent of world’s total workforce,

TAGUIG City employees spray disinfectant on each other to protect themselves from the deadly coronavirus. NONIE REYES

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including 81 percent of employers and 66 percent of own-account workers, are currently living in countries with recommended or required workplace closures,” ILO said. The wholesale and retail trade as well as food service and accommodation are among the industries heavily affected by the business disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. ILO estimated over 436 million companies, including employers and own-account workers, were devastated by Covid-19. It said governments must play a key role “to minimize if not prevent such mass labor displacement through employment-intensive public investment, government procurement that provides preferences to small businesses, and tax incentives to stimulate local sourcing of larger firms.” Likewise, it also recommended “increased government spending to upgrade physical and social infrastructure.”

BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business

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Friday, May 1, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 204

P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 16 pages | 7 DAYS A WEEK

TRANSPORT SECTOR STILL RESTRICTED; STIMULUS PROPOSED By Lorenz S. Marasigan

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HE Department of Transportation (DOTr) is studying the possibility of providing a stimulus package for operators and drivers who will be affected by the gradual resumption of public transportation in some areas in the Philippines, given that they are required to operate at very limited capacities. Transportation Secretary Arthur P. Tugade said his group has so far laid out three “stimulant factors” that can help drivers and operators cope with potential revenue losses once they resume their operations. All forms of public transport are required to operate between 20 percent and 50 percent of their rated capacities. “We are in deep consultations and discussions in packaging what we call an assistance package. We may call it stimulant package, which may be composed of several things. We are looking at the possibility of providing a fuel subsidy amounting to 30 percent of their daily consumption. We are also looking at providing preferred arrangements or interest rates in loans, and the extension of the payments for existing loans,” he said. These, he said, will help the drivers and operators cope with their limited operations during the general community quarantine (GCQ), which is now being implemented in some parts of the country. Should the Covid-19 situation improve on or before May 15, Metro Manila’s enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) will be lifted and it will transition to a more lenient GCQ. Public transport, he said, will be gradually reintroduced into the system, especially land transport. Martin B. Delgra III, the chairman of the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB), said public transport operations are required to secure “special permits” to ply the roads. “The fact that all public transport will be operating at half their capacity, we have to deploy public transport with higher capacities. We are applying the principle of hierarchy of public transport,” he said. This means that buses, including point-to-point units, will be prioritized in the issuance of special permits. Jeepneys and UV Express units are also given priority. Ride-hailing services, except for motorcycle taxis, are also allowed to operate, provided that passengers will be limited to two. Each land transport unit will also be equipped with necessary safety and security features and will follow health regulations, such as an impermeable barrier between the driver and the passengers, deployment of automated fare collection systems if available, and social-distancing rules. Delgra noted that there will be no fare hike to be implemented during the Covid-19 crisis, so as to “not put more burden to the riding public.”

POLICEMEN guard the 112-bed We Heal As One center at the Ninoy Aquino Stadium inside the Rizal Memorial Sports Complex in Manila, which will serve as quarantine facilities for Covid-19 patients. ROY DOMINGO

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Railways

By Cai U. Ordinario

HE Philippine economy may lose around P1.1 trillion due to the coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda). In an online briefing with the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines on Thursday, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua told reporters this estimate assumes that GDP growth will be zero this year. Chua also took into consideration the revised and rebased estimates for GDP released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), which pegged GDP at around P18.6 trillion in 2019. “Those are the numbers that I am translating for you based on the pronouncement that GDP will be flat and so far the survey seems to say that is not very far off because the survey says around P700

billion in losses, according to the people we interviewed,” Chua said. Optimism on the country’s GDP growth numbers have been running low and Chua said it would not be a surprise if GDP growth in the first quarter will not come out as well as hoped.

3 factors

CHUA said the economy was hit hard by three exogenous factors in the first three months of the year that may have undermined the country’s growth prospects. These factors are the Taal Volcano eruption; the decline in Chinese tourist arrivals and trade which also affected the local tourism industry

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 50.5890

and trade sector; and the imposition of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in March. The PSA is set to release the official first-quarter GDP growth estimates on May 7. “I’m new here but my sense is that we have a good potential to see a positive growth. [But] we shouldn’t be surprised if the numbers are not to our best favor,” Chua said. Apart from slow growth, the pandemic will likely increase the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio to around 46 percent to 47 percent from the current 40 percent estimate. Chua said with the lack of revenues that the government can collect in light of the ECQ, the government can resort to borrowings. To date, the Philippine government has secured $3.733 billion worth of grants and loans from multilateral agencies, the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank. However, Chua said any increase in debts will be manageable considering that the Philippines was already on the brink of a fiscal crisis in 2004 with a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 80 percent; consoli-

dated public-sector debt was over 100 percent; and the budget deficit was reaching 6 percent. Chua said having a debt-toGDP ratio of 41.5 percent as of last year now gives the country some fiscal space to secure low-cost loans, something that was unimaginable in the early 2000s. “We are in a very good position to borrow because our economy is in a very good position. We have a track record and we put tax reform as our equity contribution,” Chua said.

ECQ lifting

AMID these grim expectations, the lifting of the ECQ in some areas will help boost the economy. Several provinces are expected to enter the general community quarantine (GCQ) phase starting Friday, May 1. Chua said with 75 percent of economic activities returning to normal under GCQ, the economy still has a prayer for positive GDP growth this year. He said economic activities, provided they follow basic healthcare protocols, will be allowed and be able to give the economy a much needed boost.

FOR the rail sector, Philippine National Railways (PNR) General Manager Junn Magno said the four railways will be commercially operational once the GCQ is implemented in Metro Manila. They will be operating at around 25 percent of their capacities per coach. “We will be opening the service to all allowed passengers dictated by the InterAgency Task Force in observance of the GCQ parameters,” he said. Foot baths, sanitation areas, thermal scanning, and limited passengerpersonnel contact will also be implemented.

Airplanes

FOR the aviation sector, the transport agency is looking at operating airports at very limited capacities. The government is awaiting the official protocols from the International Civil Aviation Organization (Icao), as to how airlines will operate their passenger services. “For now, we are studying social distancing inside the airplanes, because without social distancing inside the planes, health protocols implemented inside the airports will go to waste,” he said. He added that his group is studying the possibility of leaving three rows on the back of the airplane vacant as an isolation area for passengers who may develop symptoms while mid-air. Aside from requiring airport and airline personnel to wear personal protective equipment, sanitation areas and rapid testing centers will be deployed “in all airports” in the Philippines, according to Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (Caap) Director General Jim G. Sydiongco.

Maritime

THE maritime sector will follow the same safety protocols. Passenger vessels will be allowed to operate at 50 percent of their capacities. Tugade said that all these will be the new normal for now, pending the eradication of the virus that has claimed over 200,000 lives in the world and more than 500 in the Philippines. “The new normal will basically be predicated by health and safety. It includes the wearing of masks, sanitation and disinfection. It will have social distancing, which we have to follow while waiting, queuing and boarding,” he said. Tugade added: “My instruction is to provide as much comfort and convenience to the riding public so as not to further hassle them. We are fighting an enemy where there are so many unknowns.”

Continued on A2

n JAPAN 0.4744 n UK 63.1047 n HK 6.5274 n CHINA 7.1489 n SINGAPORE 35.8381 n AUSTRALIA 33.1661 n EU 55.0155 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4610

Source: BSP (April 30, 2020)


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