BusinessMirror March 30, 2020

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Beyond rate cut, what can ease virus impact? T

HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) policy rate cut and a frontloading of the government’s infrastructure spending will ease the pain caused by the novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19) on the economy, according to a local think tank. In its latest Market Call report, First Metro Investment Corp. (FMIC)University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) Capital Markets Research acknowledged that the virus will significantly affect the first semester of the year. However, FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research said the extent of the impact of the virus on the economy could be determined at this time. “Positive prints in employment and

IT’S not a usual lazy Sunday morning: the medical staff of a hospital in Parañaque City, donning their personal protective equipment (PPE), man the frontlines for possible Covid-19 cases that will be brought to their hospital for evaluation. NONIE REYES

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By Cai U. Ordinario

inflation, and a 50-bps [basis points] cut in policy rates by the BSP should offset some of the output loss,” FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research said. “In addition, front-loading of infrastructure and government spending should also ease the pain. We see a V-type of recovery as soon as the spread and fatality rates of the virus clearly decelerate,” it added. The local think tank also said part of the economy’s palliative care is the government’s efforts to closely monitor the country’s supply sources. The government, it added, must extend incentives to develop alternative supply sources needed to help firms secure supplies needed for the fight against Covid-19. FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research fear that without these efforts

and the deaths of more Filipinos due to Covid-19, the negative impact of the virus on the second semester would be worse. “While we feel more optimistic for H2 [second semester], this may vanish if the virus’s spread and death toll do not significantly ease,” the think tank said. “The drag of Covid-19 on Philippine GDP growth is certain, especially in H1 [first semester]. But the extent of output and employment loss is extremely difficult to quantify as this would depend on how long and how devastating the pandemic would terrorize people, countries and governments,” it added.

Oil-price declines

THE think tank also said inflation could slow down further given the 33-percent plunge in crude oil prices, particularly

for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude in March. FMIC-UA&P Capital Markets Research said the US Energy Information Administration expects further oil price declines until June 2020. These, the local think tank said, would compensate for higher inflation caused by supply chain disruptions owed to the spread of Covid-19. “With the input supply disruptions, it seems fairly unclear if exports can sustain the good performance experienced in January. Nonetheless, with the sharper drop in imports, net exports of goods and services will be a bit more positive than in past quarters,” it added. Earlier, the Department of Finance announced a P27.1-billion package to finance efforts to fight Covid-19.

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Monday, March 30, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 172

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D.O.H. SAYS SORRY: 100K CHINESE GOVT TEST KITS ARE OKAY

THE once-bustling national highway in Barangay Talisay, the gateway to Taal Volcano in Batangas, is a ghost town. The town has endured two lockdowns this year—the first, because of Taal’s January 12 eruption, and now, the Covid-induced Enhanced Community Quarantine in Luzon. ROY DOMINGO

By Claudeth Mocon-Ciriaco & Recto L. Mercene

T

MAGGIE, a familiar fixture in a community in Cainta, Rizal, continues to sell her vegetables on Sunday. She tries to practice social distancing while providing fresh produce during the lockdown. Her bottom line is even thinner these days, as she gets her produce from the Pasig market, where prices are high these days, but she is one of the unsung heroes. BERNARD TESTA

By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad & Bernadette D. Nicolas

P

UBLIC and private fund managers are keenly monitoring the impact of Washington’s actions against the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) on the local tender and the Philippines’s financial health. “Watching US dollar market closely especially after bazooka interventions,” National Treasurer Rosalia V. De Leon told reporters in response to queries on the ripples of the recent $2-trillion stimulus package by American authorities.

On the other hand, analysts see the peso getting a boost with the package. RCBC Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in an e-mail that one of the “major catalysts will be the final approval of the US

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 51.0740

Congress and the signing into law by US President [Donald] Trump” of the stimulus package. Last week, the US Senate approved the relief package to boost the embattled economy as the pandemic forced trade and businesses to slow down. The emergency aid package is now up for US Congress approval this week. Market watchers would also be on the lookout for the latest US jobs and labor data, especially after 3.28 million Americans recently filed for unemployment due to lockdown amid the pandemic, Ricafort added. This figure surpassed the record of 695,000 in October 1982, he said. “More people in the US stayed

at home and some businesses shut down as part of the measures to prevent the coronavirus from spreading,” he explained.

Market sentiment

RICAFORT explained that any stimulus package allocated to fight the pandemic could uplift market sentiment. The Philippine government earlier this month announced a P27.1-billion stimulus package, the bulk or P14 billion of which is allocated for the tourism industry. UnionBank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, however, emphasized that the Covid-19 pandemic would continue to weigh on peso trading this week.

HE 100,000 Sansure RT-PCR test kits donated by the Chinese government have been assessed by the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine (RITM) to be “on a par” with the test kits provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) after parallel testing was done, the Department of Health (DOH) clarified on Sunday. A separate assertion was made by the Chinese Embassy in Manila. DOH made the clarification after one of its officials said that some Covid-19 test kits from China were only “40-percent accurate,” a remark that social-media posts tied to reports of thousands of kits returned by some European countries to Chinese suppliers for being defective. The DOH noted, though, that the test kits referred to by Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire during Sunday’s press briefing by the DOH referred to another brand of test kit that was proposed to be donated by a private foundation, not Beijing’s official donation. “Moreover, Sansure test kits [the Chinese government donation] contain all required reagents to run the test successfully. This means that no other reagents will need to be separately procured by the Philippine government to use the test kits,” the DOH said in a statement. Upon preliminary review of documents by RITM, the DOH said, subsequent validation was necessary and such was done. “To minimize this extra step, parties agreed to use BGI and Sansure RT-PCR test kits for subsequent donations,” the DOH added as the DOH apologized for any confusion that previously issued statements may have caused. The Beijing government-donated test kits arrived last week and were received by Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro L. Locsin Jr., who has been actively networking with the Philippines’s allies for assistance in sourcing test kits and personal protective equipment (PPE), which are in short supply and are being pointed to as one cause for the high casualty rate of Filipino medical workers in the fight against Covid-19. Vergeire was quoted as saying on Saturday, March 28: “Sa mga naunang ipinadala sa amin na test kits from China na nakapagpakita ng 40-percent accuracy, hindi po natin ito ginamit dahil nakita na nga po mababa po ang accuracy natin dito, kaya ito na lang po ay ating itinago [Those test kits sent earlier by China have shown

See “DOH,” A2

See “Fund Managers,” A2

n JAPAN 0.4669 n UK 62.1162 n HK 6.5885 n CHINA 7.2241 n SINGAPORE 35.6986 n AUSTRALIA 30.8436 n EU 56.3448 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.6016

Source: BSP (March 27, 2020)


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BusinessMirror March 30, 2020 by BusinessMirror - Issuu