Pandemic impacts airlines’ credit quality By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad
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S the economy continues to grapple with the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, the airlines’ credit quality is put at risk due to substantial passenger capacity cut and declining fuel prices, Moody’s Investors Service said in a recent report. Moody’s noted that it has downgraded the credit rating of 21 out of 22 airlines in its recent monitoring last week. “We expect credit quality around the world will continue to deteriorate, especially for companies in the most vulnerable sectors that are most affected by prospectively reduced revenues, margins and disrupted supply chains,” it said. “Global airlines are one of the most stressed sectors by the coronavirus crisis given its exposure to travel restrictions
AIRPORT taxis wait for passengers at Naia Terminal 1 on Monday as only a few international flights were allowed to operate because of the implementation of the enhanced community quarantine. ROY DOMINGO
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and sensitivity of consumer demand and sentiment,” the debt watcher added. For one, airline capacity across the world is seen to be reduced by as much as 75 percent during the second quarter of the year, the report noted. “We believe capacity will be cut by 40 percent to 60 percent or more for the second quarter of 2020, and in some instances, more than 75 percent compared with the second quarter of 2019,” said Moody’s Senior Vice President Jonathan Root. Assuming that there would be a slowdown in Covid-19 cases by end-June and passenger demand became normal again, global industry capacity might decline by 25 percent to 35 percent in 2020, Root added. Airlines—basing on the credit rating firm’s sensitivity analysis—are anticipating
huge losses this year as revenue passenger miles may fall by around 20 percent to 25 percent, which can be partially tempered by lower costs. The sector may only see recovery to as much as 90 percent of 2019 levels by next year. “The key drivers of how significantly credit quality will ultimately be affected are the duration of the demand trough and whether airlines have sufficient liquidity to cope until schedules start to return to normal,” Moody’s Senior Vice President Martin Hallmark said. Large airlines could weather the storm, Moody’s said, because they have enough liquidity to cushion shortterm losses until third quarter. But modest-sized and/or less liquid airlines could “collapse within a short period” should they not receive support from shareholders and government.
Lower oil prices, meanwhile, could be a double-edged sword given the different fuel hedging strategies being adopted by airlines, Moody’s said. “Different hedging strategies mean that US carriers will almost universally feel an immediate benefit from lower oil prices, while their European peers that hedge more extensively will generally be burdened with higher-priced hedges based on forecast flight schedules,” the debt watcher explained. Fuel hedging refers to a futures contract being entered into by large fuel-consuming firms, including airlines, to minimize exposure to price volatility in the market. Moody’s also called on the governments to be “aggressive” in containing the virus while ensuring financial aid to airlines amid the pandemic.
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 166
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SPLITS HOUSE, SENATE BSP BUYS P300-B GOVT SECURITIES FOR VIRUS FUNDS
OVERSEAS Filipino workers who recently arrived from Bahrain wait for transport assistance from the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration (OWWA) at the Naia Terminal 1 on Monday. According to them, the plane they rode in was almost empty, with mostly only Filipino passengers on board. NONIE REYES A LONE motorcyclist waits for the light to go green at an empty intersection in Binondo, Manila on Monday, as Luzon island entered the second week of a lockdown in a bid to control Covid-19 from spreading. BERNARD TESTA
By Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz & Butch Fernandez
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HE House of Representatives has already moved to grant President Duterte enormous special powers, including direct operations of private businesses, a move seen by critics as “more dangerous” than the 2019 coronavirus pandemic.
SENATE President Vicente Sotto III talks during a break in a special session to tackle a bill that would authorize President Duterte to appropriate a budget for measures addressing the new coronavirus situation in the country, March 23, 2020. LOUIE SAURO MILLANG/ SENATE PRIB VIA AP
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The swift assent of the House, in contrast to the cautious stance of the Senate as it held its own special session on Monday, could dim hopes for a more unified final version by the two chambers in order to avert calling a bicameral conference panel to reconcile their respective bills. Senate leaders earlier indicated they would readily grant spending authority for the President to have leeway to realign at least P200 billion—to as high as, in some estimates, P650 billion—in order to meet all urgent concerns arising from the spread of the Covid-19, which forced a Luzon-wide lockdown since March 17. Earlier, both the Executive and Congress said funding would be needed as stimulus for the economy, support for affected business sectors, and immediate response to help millions of daily-wage earners by way of outright cash grants and food subsidies. The Palace already certified as urgent House Bill 6616 or “An Act to declare the existence of a national emergency arising from the Covid-19 situation, and a national policy in connection therewith and authorizing the President of the Republic of the Philippines for a
limited period and subject to restrictions, to exercise powers necessary and proper to carry out the declared national policy and for other purposes.” It has been dubbed the “Bayanihan Act of 2020.” With this, the approval of the bill on second reading and third reading in the House was expected within Monday.
No rush to give extra powers
SENATORS were not inclined to readily grant Malacañang an option to give President Duterte emergency powers to take over privately owned utilities. “That is not how it will be approved in the Senate version,” Senate President Vicente Sotto III said Monday, adding: “Better wait for the final version.” The Senate leader declined to elaborate on the scope of extra powers seen to facilitate acquisition of urgently needed supplies, saying only that it involves “Presidential authority to address the emergency crisis.” On Sunday, Sotto had flatly stated they made no commitment to grant emergency powers to the President when Congress leaders
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UST days after its decision to cut its interest rates by 50 basis points, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) decided to inject more stimulus into the Philippines’s aching economy—this time by buying P300 billion worth of government securities from the Bureau of Treasury (BTr). On Monday, BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno announced that the monetary board authorized a P300-billion purchase of government securities from the BTr under a repurchase agreement, with a maximum repayment period of six months. BSP’s single purchase from the BTr approximates about 7.3 percent of the government’s budget for the entire year of 2020. The fund generated from the agreement shall be used to support the National Government’s (NG) programs to manage the spread of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) and to counter its impact on the local economy. “We continue to support the government’s initiatives and objectives during the enhanced community quarantine [ECQ]. This additional amount is intended to provide support for those most affected by the ECQ, especially in Luzon, for the next 60 to 90 days,” Diokno said. On March 16 President Duterte placed the entire island of Luzon under an ECQ, restricting the movement and economic activity of the country’s main island. ING Bank Manila economist Nicholas Mapa said Luzon accounts for 74 percent of the country’s economic activity. Three days after Duterte’s announcement, the BSP moved to cut its monetary policy rates in a scheduled policy meeting by 50 basis points. This move, Diokno said, is a “follow-on monetary policy response to address the adverse spillovers associated with the ongoing pandemic.” The BSP, in the same meeting, also authorized the timebound and temporary relaxation of BSP regulations on compliance reporting by banks, calculation of penalties on required reserves, and single borrower limits as well as a temporary reduction in the term spread on rediscounting loans relative to the overnight lending rate to zero. On the fiscal side, the legislative department is said to be working on a proposed rescue package amounting to about P200 billion. See “BSP,” A2
Continued on A2
n JAPAN 0.4599 n UK 59.5265 n HK 6.5679 n CHINA 7.1787 n SINGAPORE 35.1383 n AUSTRALIA 29.5493 n EU 54.5388 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.5580
Source: BSP (March 23, 2020)