‘MSMEs, import/export bloc need ₧33.2B’ T
O cope with the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) as well as large firms that export and/or import would require a bailout of P33.2 billion this year, according to estimates by economists from the University of the Philippines. In a discussion paper titled “Vulnerable to the Virus: Globally Oriented Manufacturing Firms at Risk From the Spread of Covid-19,” UP School of Economics assistant professor Karl Jandoc; UP Center for Integrative and Development Studies Research Associate Adrian Mendoza; and Representative of the 2nd District of Marikina Stella Luz Quimbo said this estimate assumes that government will shoulder 12 percent of firm revenues (as profit) for a month.
NO DISTANCING?
As the government strictly enforced the Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine to fight Covid-19, riders in tandem seem unwary of the risk from contacts between persons as they continue their daily grind. They always stay at home, though, during curfew hours from 8 pm to 4 am. BERNARD TESTA
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The package covers P693 million for purely exporting MSMEs; P8.7 billion for purely importing MSMEs; and P23.8 billion for large firms that simultaneously export and import. “While large firms are able to withstand, to some extent, the Covid-19 shock, SMEs do not have such capability,” the economists said. “These SMEs export food and food products which are highly perishable and more sensitive even to short-term vicissitudes in global demand.” The economists said they examined firms that export or import from countries with the greatest number of detected cases. These countries are China, Italy, Iran, Republic of Korea, France, Spain, Germany, Japan, the US and Switzerland. These countries comprise nearly 95 percent of the 181,493 detected Covid-19 cases globally. With this, economists said this increases the probability of lockdowns,
travel bans and other policies that could slow down economic activity. The economists found that export revenues from Covid-19 countries reached $39.3 billion in 2019, accounting for 55 percent of total exports. The value of imports from Covid-19 countries reached $56.4 billion or 53 percent of total import value in 2019. With this, they estimated the economic fallout from Covid-19 may affect 494,679 workers from globally oriented manufacturing sector (GOMS) firms. The 345 MSMEs that are pure exporters employ 19,216 workers, while the 1,473 purely importing MSMEs employ 103,855 workers. The 1,451 large firms that export and import employ 371,608 workers, or 75 percent of the potentially affected total number of workers. “For SMEs, it is possible that a lockdown on Covid-19 countries will affect
these firms even in the short run. Compounding the problem is that these SMEs may not have the capability of large firms, e.g., access to credit, to withstand an economic shock such as that engendered by Covid-19,” the economists said. In order to finance the bailout, the economists said policy measures implemented by other Covid-19 affected countries may be adopted by the Philippines. These include loan and credit guarantee to ensure credit availability to firms done in Canada and Thailand; temporary wage/payroll subsidy to prevent layoffs implemented in New Zealand; and deferment of income-tax payments without penalties or interest, which is also being implemented in Canada. The measures also include special credit window/facility for business through
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BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business Monday, March 23, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 165
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JUST FUNDS OR POWERS? ‘REVIVING VIRUS-HIT BIZ WORTH HIKING DEFICIT-GDP RATIO’
WHAT used to be a busy departure area of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Terminal 1 is now almost empty of passengers, as the last few ones try to beat the government deadline to exit the country as the enhanced community quarantine was imposed to prevent the spread of Covid-19. NONIE REYES
T
SCIENCE FOR LIFE Polytechnic University of the Philippines Institute for Science and Technology Research Director Dr. Armin S. Coronado and his team create locally produced ethyl alcohol in their laboratory amid the shortage of alcohol and sanitizers as Covid-19 spreads in the country. The alcohol will be donated to frontliners and health workers. NONIE REYES By Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz, Butch Fernandez & Samuel P. Medenilla
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OTH chambers of Congress convene for separate special sessions on Monday, to arm the government with enough spending power to deal with the coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19) that has placed the entire Luzon island on lockdown and is gouging businesses big and small while impacting millions of daily-wage earners and straining the health-care system. PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 51.2150
The disclosure of a document embodying Malacañang Palace’s request to Congress for the special session caused a stir on Sunday, however, amid fears that President Duterte might use it to ask lawmakers for emergency powers, including measures as the takeover of private business. Senate President Vicente Sotto III flatly denied they will tackle an emergency powers bill, saying he had made this clear in marathon meetings over the weekend at Malacañang between the President’s men and Congress leaders. He stressed that lawmakers committed to grant spending authority, not emergency powers. The Palace, however, later on
Sunday admitted that President Duterte will be seeking not just an additional budget but also additional powers, including taking over private companies, from Congress to combat the spread of Covid-19. In a radio interview, Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles said Duterte will be requesting for “flexibility” in using the 2020 General Appropriations Act (GAA) for government programs related to Covid-19. He, however, confirmed that Duterte has also asked for powers to take over business. Nograles said it will be up to Congress and the Senate to grant Duterte the power as well as thresh out guidelines, on how Continued on A2
By Elijah Felice Rosales
HE government should take the risk of a ballooning deficit-to-GDP ratio that is close to 5 percent, as it crafts a fiscal stimulus package of as much as P281 billion to alleviate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on various sectors, industry groups have said. They called on policy-makers to take maximum fiscal response to the health crisis challenging the Philippines at the moment. In particular, they want the government to adopt a war chest that will increase the deficit-to-GDP ratio to about 5 percent that would allow the generation of a mitigation fund between P277 billion and P281 billion. “We believe the government can and should adopt a fiscal stimulus program that will raise our deficit-to-GDP ratio to close to 5 percent, which is a usual red flag for credit watchers, though they will probably relax as an unprecedented number of countries buttress their economies,” a coalition of 32 industry groups said in a statement on Friday. Should GDP growth slow to 4.5 percent, equivalent to a GDP of P20 trillion, they said a deficit of 5 percent will be P1 trillion. Reduce the programmed deficit of 3.6 percent, or P720 billion, and the government can make space for a P281-billion fiscal stimulus program. The coronavirus outbreak in the Philippines is seen to cut GDP growth by 1 percentage point if it infects the economy for the entire year, making it plausible for the full-year figure to go as low as 5.5 percent, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda). On the other hand, should GDP growth contract to 3 percent, which will translate to a GDP of P19.7 trillion, the industries computed that a 5-percent deficit will be P987.5 billion. Take away the programmed deficit of P3.6 percent, or P711.3 billion, there will be room for a P277-billion war chest. The proposed fiscal stimulus package of the industry groups is 10 times larger than the P27.1-billion mitigation fund announced by the Department of Finance last week.
See “Reviving,” A2
n JAPAN 0.4618 n UK 58.7282 n HK 6.5991 n CHINA 7.2013 n SINGAPORE 35.2720 n AUSTRALIA 29.3616 n EU 54.6106 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.6246
Source: BSP (March 20, 2020)