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Sunday, March 8, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 150
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ENOUGH POWER, BUT BRACE FOR BROWNOUTS
ZLIKOVEC | DREAMSTIME.COM
D.O.E. GUARANTEES SUFFICIENT ELECTRICITY SUPPLY THIS COMING DRY SEASON, BUT STAKEHOLDERS ARE NOT TAKING THAT HOOK, LINE AND SINKER
Tight prices
By Lenie Lectura
T
HE Department of Energy (DOE) has once again allayed fears of yet another looming electricity shortage leading to brownouts this coming dry season, assuring there is stable power supply. There is no need to worry, DOE assured the public, because the agency has come up with “holistic solutions and contingency
measures” to keep power outages at bay. Industry stakeholders, however, are singing a different tune.
THE operator of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) declared on January 30 that the Luzon grid is facing tight power supply, and thus anticipates higher spot market prices. “With the expected increase in demand, tight supply conditions and price spikes are likely to happen, particularly during the summer period. This underscores the need for new generation capacities to meet increasing demand and to help prevent recurrence of high market clearing prices,” said Robinson Descanzo, chief operating officer of Independent Electricity Market
Operator of the Philippines Inc. (Iemop). Luzon, he said, would need an additional 500 megawatts (MW). Using the DOE’s 2016-2040 Power Development Plan Demand Growth Rate, Iemop said power demand in Luzon is forecast to increase 4.9 percent. “But we don’t have additional power plants coming in before summer. They will come in only after summer,” Descanzo said.
Supply deficiency
A WEEK later, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) said there is a power supply deficiency of 1,800 to 1,900 MW. The num-
bers, according to ERC chairman and chief executive officer Agnes VST Devanadera, came from the DOE itself. While the DOE did not dispute the figures cited by the ERC, DOE assistant secretary Redentor Delola explained that the numbers refer to the least loss of load expectation, or LOLE, of one day, or a “probabilistic measure” of the number of days that the power generation will be insufficient to meet the demand “with adverse conditions present.” “We need that much if we aim for the least LOLE of one day,” commented Delola. The ERC chief stressed the
importance of new power generation capacity, which the Luzon grid lacks, and well-maintained power plants. “We cannot build plants. The only thing left for us is, how we dealt with the Supreme Court decision on the 153 PSAs [power supply agreements] that were told to undergo CSP [Competitive Selection Process]—as matter of policy, we told them, don’t stop your supply while you’re doing your CSP,” Devanadera said. “Because if supply stops, as an effect of the Supreme Court decision, that’s 1,000 plus megawatts again on top of the real shortage.” Continued on a2
China’s grand Belt and Road plan is being lashed by coronavirus By Iain Marlow, Karlis Salna, Anusha Ondaatjie & Dandan Li | Bloomberg
X
I JINPING’S Belt and Road Initiative has long been seen as a way to project China’s influence around the world. Now, the coronavirus is showing how the trade and infrastructure program can help export the country’s troubles.
The deadly outbreak is prompting delays and disruptions to China’s construction and investment plans overseas, risking years of planning and hundreds of billions of dollars in economic diplomacy. Quarantine measures are preventing Chinese workers from making it to foreign building sites, domestic firms supplying overseas projects face acute labor shortages
and fears are mounting that workers will inadvertently spread the virus to new locales. Projects that have been affected since the virus emerged in December include a $5.5-billion high-speed rail line in Indonesia. There’s also a separate railway initiative in neighboring Malaysia, construction projects in Sri Lanka and corporate expansion plans in Pakistan.
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 50.6040
THE Ban Ladhan Railway bridge, a section of the China-Laos Railway built by the China Railway Group Ltd., stands under construction on the Mekong River in Ban Ladhan, Luang Prabang province, Laos, on October 18, 2018. TAYLOR WEIDMAN/BLOOMBERG
The disruption has exposed another pitfall of the region’s growing dependence on China’s backing for major infrastructure projects. Even as the pace of new coronavirus cases slows in China, host countries remain wary of avoiding future outbreaks, with deadly infection surges in places like Iran, Italy and South Korea serving as a warning about how quickly a small cluster can spin out of control. “While there are risks of delays and cancellation of projects, there are also risks in early resumption,” said Bonnie Glaser, who has advised the US government and directs the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Xi “seems determined to demonstrate that life is returning to normal and he wants to get the economy churning again,” Glaser said. “Resuming BRI projects is probably among his goals, not only for economic reasons, but also because BRI activities are a lever to Continued on a2
n JAPAN 0.4767 n UK 65.6233 n HK 6.5112 n CHINA 7.2950 n SINGAPORE 36.5980 n AUSTRALIA 33.4644 n EU 56.8941 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4851
Source: BSP (March 6, 2020)