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CARRYING ON
IN TIME OF COVID
Leading international payments processing provider projects remittance inflows to still grow, albeit modestly, as migrant workers find ways to ease families’ woes back home.
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By Roderick L. Abad | Contributor
VEN though uncertainty grips the global market with the ongoing Covid-19 crisis impacting various industries, the Philippine remittance sector would still post growth this year, given that financial aid is highly needed on the receivers’ end in these difficult times, according to a top official of an international payments processing provider.
“Usually in the past, remittances have been resilient to economic cycles. We saw that in the financial crisis of 2008, when remittances practically were affected in their growth. But we did not see large downturns in remittances,” UniTeller CEO Alberto Guerra told reporters at a recent webinar for the launch of the second installment of their new report dubbed “Both Sides of the Coin—Side Two, The Sender’s Story.” “Now Covid-19 has been a very particular situation because we’re not only talking about dramatic unemployment in some cases, but also we have seen impact on accessibility to remit-
tance facilities,” he added. The executive contradicted earlier reports about how remittances could respond to the pandemic. He cited, in particular, the World Bank’s expectation that remittances are going to fall by 20 percent this year. “We’re not seeing that at least in the markets that we have. [Based on the origin of remittances from] the United States to Asia, we’re seeing some growth; US to Mexico, we continue to see some positive growth despite the pandemic,” Guerra said. “I do believe that as economies continue to come back to a ‘new normal,’ hopefully, remittances will pick up again because they
[migrant workers] need to support their families continuously. It may have increased because of this pandemic,” he said. Seeing such behavior apparent among their Filipino clients, the CEO of UniTeller agreed with last month’s forecast of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) that remittances inbound to the Philippines will continue to expand amid the ensuing pandemic. “I think that’s a possibility. But we have to monitor and see how things continue to evolve in the upcoming months,” Guerra said. Based on the recently released study of UniTeller, Asian migrant workers, particularly Filipinos,
Indians, Indonesians and Vietnamese, in the US, Hong Kong and Singapore remit their hard-earned money back home 1.6 times on the average per month. “This is a very significant data because people are sending money more than once a month and to continuously support the needs of their families,” he emphasized. Over half of low-income migrant workers are remitting their money to spouses, children and/ or their parents. In Hong Kong, spousal remittances are the highest at 24 percent, followed by 21 percent in Singapore, and 19 percent in the US. Continued on A2
The great diamond glut: Miners stuck with gems worth billions
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N one of the world’s biggest diamond vaults, hidden inside a nondescript office compound on the dusty outskirts of Botswana’s capital, the precious stones just keep piling up.
year, or about one-third of annual rough-diamond production. “They’ve tried to restrict roughdiamond supply to protect the market and protect value,” said Gemdax partner Anish Aggarwal. “The question will be, how does this destocking occur? Can miners destock and keep protecting the market?”
Owner De Beers, which mines and auctions most of its gems in the southern African nation, has barely sold any rough diamonds since February. Neither has Russian rival Alrosa PJSC. Now, as the coronavirus restrictions that froze the global industry for months begin to lift, the unsold diamonds present a dilemma: How to reduce billions of dollars’ worth of stocks without undermining the nascent recovery?
‘Next big test’
Devastation
THE pandemic has devastated the diamond world. Jewelry stores closed their doors, India’s cutting and polishing artisans
were forced to stay home and De Beers had to cancel its March sale because buyers couldn’t travel to view the merchandise. De Beers and Alrosa have moved to defend their market. The miners refused to cut prices, instead allowing buyers unprecedented freedom to renege on contracts to buy stones. They’ve also reduced production in an effort to control stock levels. Yet the diamonds keep piling up. The five biggest producers are probably sitting on excess inventories worth about $3.5 billion, according to Gemdax, a specialist advisory firm. The figure could reach $4.5 billion by the end of the
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 49.9540
AN employee sorts through a collection of rough diamonds at the United Selling Organization of Alrosa PJSC sorting center in Moscow. ANDREY RUDAKOV/BLOOMBERG
AFTER being forced to cancel the March event, De Beers managed to hold a sale in May but didn’t announce the results like it usually does. According to people familiar with the situation, the sale yielded about $35 million. Last year that sale was $416 million. The next big test for the industry comes later this month, with De Beers’s next sale. The company is going out of its way to attract customers, including by allowing diamond viewings outside of Botswana. Buyers will still be allowed to refuse goods they’ve contracted to purchase. Continued on A2
n JAPAN 0.4665 n UK 63.6864 n HK 6.4458 n CHINA 7.0733 n SINGAPORE 36.1279 n AUSTRALIA 34.9378 n EU 56.8377 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.3157
Source: BSP (June 11, 2020)