PHL credit rating hinges on recovery
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CONOMIC output may be down in the first quarter of 2020, but confidence remains high for the Philippine economy, especially after S&P Global Ratings’ most recent move to maintain the country’s credit rating despite global distress due to the pandemic. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno called S&P’s move a “big vote of confidence” on the post-pandemic economic recovery of the Philippines. Over the weekend, S&P issued a statement, affirming the Philippines’ credit rating at “BBB+” with a stable outlook. A BBB+ rating means the credit rating agency remains fairly confident that the country has the capacity to repay its borrowings and financial obligations. A stable outlook on the rating means the
A MECHANIC wearing a facemask fixes a motorcycle at a motorcycle parts shop. Two-wheeled modes of conveyances are becoming popular, both as a means of transportation and a way to practice social distancing in the new normal. ROY DOMINGO
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rating is not bound to change in the next 12 to 18 months. The debt watcher said it may upgrade the credit rating of the Philippines in the next two years if the country will have a swift economic turnaround from the devastation wrought by the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. In a statement over the weekend, it said the country’s economy is bound for a strong recovery in 2021 assuming the virus is contained by the first half of next year. “We may raise the rating over the next two years if the economy recovers much more quickly than expected, and the government makes significant further achievements in its fiscal reform program, such that the net general government indebtedness falls below 30 percent of GDP,” S&P said.
Its long-term outlook remains stable on the back of normal policymaking seen to support credit metrics and anticipated economic recovery next year. This, as the credit-rating firm expects a substantial drop in budget deficit in 2021. In its assessment, S&P said: “The Philippines’ economy should achieve a strong recovery from 2021, following a deep slowdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic this year. Although the economic slowdown will weigh heavily on fiscal and debt metrics over the near term, we expect a meaningful stabilization over the next three to four years owing to strong economic fundamentals and generally orthodox policymaking.” “The stable outlook reflects our expectations that the Philippines’ economy will achieve strong growth from 2021, and
its fiscal deficits will decline meaningfully after a significant rise in 2020,” it added.
Defying downgrade trend
OVER the course of the pandemic, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings both already announced they are maintaining the Philippines’ credit rating despite global economic stress. S&P’s announcement completes the move from all three major credit watchers in the world. “The Philippines is defying the global trend of rating downgrades and negative rating outlook as an aftermath of the health crisis and the subsequent containment measures of many governments,” Diokno said on Sunday. Due to the effects of massive economic and travel restrictions, the
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Monday, June 1, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 235
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OVERSEAS JOBS DIM
TRAINS servicing the Manila Light Rail Transit Line 1 (LRT1) and Line 2 (LRT2) are seen parked at the LRT Depot in Pasay City. To comply with physical-distancing rules the trains will run at 10 to 12 percent capacity, according to Transportation Secretary Arthur Tugade. NONIE REYES
By Bernadette D. Nicolas & Recto L. Mercene
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SALCEDA SEES 9.6% Q2 CONTRACTION; PUSHES 2 BILLS’ OK
HE number of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) stranded across the globe has swelled to nearly 100,000, according to the latest data of the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE). Of the stranded, over 36,000 have been repatriated in a series of special operations by the Department of Foreign Affairs, in coordination with foreign governments, airlines, the DOLE and manning agencies, amid restrictions posed by pandemic-induced lockdowns in hundreds of countries and territories. The 100,000 stranded OFWs, however, is just a tenth of the estimated number of migrant workers who could be out of the market by 2021, according to a veteran in the Philippine recruitment sector. Economists and recruitment in-
dustry leaders have recently warned that a combination of the recession across the globe caused by Covid19-induced lockdowns and the slump in the world oil prices would shrink the labor market for OFWs, who for four decades have shored up the Philippine economy with over $30 billion in remittances. Quoting the DOLE data, recruitment consultant Manny Geslani predicted on Sunday “a loss of over 1 million OFW jobs by 2021 with over 500,000 jobs by the end of this year.” From “a high of 1,200 recruit-
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TRANSPORTATION Secretary Arthur Tugade checks the progress of the new traffic scheme on Edsa, which involves the creation of bicycle lanes, median bus lanes and rationalization of routes, as the government prepares for the influx of motorists and commuters under a GCQ. DOTR COMMUNICATIONS OFFICE
ment and manning agencies registered last year, it is estimated that surviving recruitment agencies could be counted in one hand by next year,” said Geslani. “DOLE’s grim prediction will have a devastating effect on over 1,200 land- and sea-based licensed
recruitment and manning agencies with over 50 percent of the existing agencies not expected to survive the next few months,” Geslani added, saying, “the deployment so far has gone down by 99.8 percent as of 2020.” Continued on A4
CAB tells carriers to reset flights initially for June 1 By Ma. Stella F. Arnaldo & Recto L. Mercene
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HE Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) on Saturday stopped Philippine carriers from selling tickets for flights, which were supposed to commence on Monday, June 1, as the National Capital Region shifts to general community quarantine (GCQ) status. The three largest commercial air carriers in the country had announced their intentions to resume commercial flight
operations starting June 1, a day immediately following the lifting of restrictions imposed by the government. Flag carrier Philippine Airlines (PAL), Cebu Pacific (CEB) and Air Asia (Z2) issued similar announcements of their intent to take to the skies come June 1. Presidential Spokesman Harry Roque said during a televised briefing “that the government would place Metro Manila, Laguna province, and Cebu City in Visayas under a “modified enhanced community quarantine” from May 16 to May 31.
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The local carriers took this to mean that come June 1, the lockdown would be lifted so that they can resume commercial flights, both domestic and international, albeit on a staggered basis for the latter. Aside from a few cargo and so-called sweeper or chartered flights, the three carriers have been grounded since March 15 when the community quarantine (CQ) was first imposed, then elevated to an enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) to last from March 17 to May 14. However, this was revised by the Inter-Agency Task
Force (IATF) and downgraded into modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) to last until May 31. An advisory signed on May 30, 2020, by CAB Executive Director Carmelo L. Arcilla, a copy of which was obtained by the BusinessMirror, said, “Please be informed that the IATF has yet to approve the routes for domestic operations in the first week of June 2020. Consequently, airlines are hereby advised to cancel their flights on June 1, 2020, and to stop selling tickets for the said date.”
By Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz
HE Philippine economy could contract to as deep as 9.6 percent in the second quarter of the year with the continuing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the House Ways and Means panel chairman said at the weekend. Albay Rep. Joey Sarte Salceda said there is still a chance the country might enter a period of positive growth during the year if Congress approves the proposed P1.3-trillion Accelerated Recovery and Investments Stimulus for the Economy (ARISE) and the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) Act. “Q1 GDP growth was -0.2 percent, but the real cost is the opportunity cost. We economists speak in terms of that. What could easily have been, versus what the actual GDP growth figures were. Considering we could have easily grown by 6.5 percent in Q1, the opportunity cost is essentially around 8 percent of GDP for that quarter,” said the analyst-lawmaker. “As for Q2, I would not be surprised if the GDP contraction hits double digits, although a good estimate would be between a quarterly GDP growth of -6.5 percent to -9.6 percent. Again, considering opportunity costs, that’s easily a cost of 13 percent to 16 percent more of quarterly GDP that could have been realized if we were under normal circumstances,” he added. Salceda said if the country enters negative growth during the third and fourth quarters, its ability to achieve poverty reduction and countryside development goals will be significantly delayed by several years. “That is why while we still can, we have to boost the economy with the right signals—one, that we are fully capable of rooting out Covid-19; two, that we will support the economy through a sufficient spending plan; and three, that we will support business expansion through CREATE, the new Citira [Corporate Income Tax and Incentives Reform Act],” he said.
Improving performance
MEANWHILE, the House leader said improving the Department of Health performance is the key to unleashing the creative powers of the stimulus measures meant to revive a Covid-devastated economy as lockdowns in the pandemic shuttered most businesses. “Stimulus won’t work and will just be wasted in a lockdown. Ultimately, it is all about confidence—confidence in health, confidence in incomes, confidence about employment, confidence in growth in that order,” he said. “Both those said figures are almost entirely behind us now, and any damage those figures would have meant was already incurred. What matters now is how do we recover from this?” he said.
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Source: BSP (May 29, 2020)