HOUSE SPEAKER RACE NOT A DONE DEAL By Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz @joveemarie
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WO breakfast meetings at the House of Representatives, just hours before the opening of the 18th Congress and the President’s State of the Nation Address, are being seen as indications the smooth transition Malacañang had hoped for may not be forthcoming. And, as a senior lawmaker put it on Sunday, some people may have sleepless nights on
MICROPHONES frame the carpeted path leading to the centerpiece of the State of the Nation Address (Sona) and the opening of the 18th Congress. On that spot, three of the five top leaders of the country—the President, Senate President and House Speaker‚ will converge on Monday afternoon. BERNARD TESTA
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Sona’s eve, in a throwback to the 2018 hours-long standoff at the House, when then-Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez was ousted in a “coup” that installed Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The rowdy, tense transition delayed President Duterte’s Sona delivery by an hour. This year, while lawmakers expressed confidence the opening of the First Regular Session of the 18th Congress will go smoothly, Albay Rep. Joey Salceda hinted that lawmakers’ choice might not end with Duterte’s “suggestion” in the speakership race. In a radio interview on Sunday, Salceda expressed concern on the outcome of the “breakfast meeting” between lawmakers and the President’s son and Davao City Rep. Paolo Duterte hours before the election of the next Speaker. At press time, at least 200 lawmakers had said they will attend the breakfast meeting at the South Lounge.
“He will not call for breakfast if you’re just getting to know them,” Salceda said, adding, “I think he [Duterte] is accepting that he has a responsibility in the years of his influence as a member of the House and as a son of the President.” According to Salceda, a dark horse in the race may come out after the breakfast meeting. “I would say [Taguig Rep. Alan Peter] Cayetano is still the front-runner but tommorow [Monday], there might be a dark horse,” Salceda added. Fending off relentless lobbying by speakership aspirants, Duterte said last week his personal preference is a term-sharing setup, with Cayetano taking the first 15 months as Speaker, and Marinduque Rep. Lord Allan Velasco, the last 21 months. A third key rival, Leyte Rep. Martin Romualdez, could be majority leader, Duterte said.
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A broader look at today’s business n Monday, July 22, 2019 Vol. 14 No. 285
Inflation seen to dip earlier than expected
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By Bianca Cuaresma
@BcuaresmaBM
RIVATE economists in the country agree that inflation will go further down than earlier expected, likely on base effects and the stabilization of food prices toward the end of the year. In its June 2019 survey of 27 private bank economists across the country, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported that the analysts forecast inflation to hit an average of 2.9 percent for the year. This is lower than their ear-
lier average forecast of 3.3 percent for 2019. The BSP said respondent economists expect inflation to remain manageable and within the government’s target range, with risks to the inflation outlook likely to be
broadly balanced. The analysts, based on the BSP’s probability distribution survey, were also 94.6 percent certain that inflation will be within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target range for the year.
2.9%
Average inflation for 2019 as forecast by private bank economists in the June 2019 survey by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. This is lower than their earlier average forecast of 3.3 percent for 2019 The respondents’ reasons for seeing a deceleration of inflation toward the end of 2019 are: base effects; the continued implementation of nonmonetary policy actions to increase domestic food supply and stabilize prices, such as the rice tariffication law, rice importations and the mitigating measures See “Inflation,” A2
OOD purchases by Filipino households, par ticu larly middle-income class earners, will drive the country’s food retail sales upward by 5.5 percent to a record-high $50 billion from $47.4 billion this year, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report. The GAIN report, prepared by the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila, estimated Philippine food retail sales last year at $47.4 billion from $44.98 billion in 2017. “ The Philippines’s food retail market in 2018 was valued at $47.4 billion, and is forecast to reach nearly $50 billion in 2019,” the report read. “Filipino households spend
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See “GAIN report,” A2
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GROWTH WON’T REBOUND TILL 2ND HALF; Q2 NUMBERS BELOW 6%–ANALYSTS
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CONOMIC growth won’t recover from its dismal performance up until the second half of the year, analysts said, due largely to the lingering effects of rate hikes and budget delays in the second quarter of the year. Separate research notes from ING Bank Manila and Standard Chartered Bank say one thing: that after the first quarter slump in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), growth will likely be disappointing again in the second quarter of the year before bouncing back toward the second half of 2019. For ING Bank Manila economist Nicholas Mapa, growth is likely to slip below 6 percent again in the second quarter of 2019, as it did in the January to March performance of the economy. “The Philippines posted a disappointing 1Q GDP print of 5.6 percent as government outlays
cratered on the budget delay while capital formation lost its luster after BSP hiked aggressively in 2018.... With 2Q GDP expected to remain subdued on lingering effects of rate hikes and budget delays, first-half growth will likely slip below 6 percent as the speed bump hits home,” Mapa said. Mapa said government underspending—which is the likely cause of the growth slowdown— affected the first-quarter growth, as well as a huge part of the second quarter performance, as the government was only able to pass the budget bill in April. “2H Growth, however, appears to offer some hope as the Philippines attempts to achieve escape velocity and get growth back on a higher trajectory. If the Philippine economy is able to get all three channels of growth up and running, we could see the See “Growth,” A2
Violations continue in Panglao
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Filipino households spend more than half of their budget on essentials including food. Purchases of food and nonalcoholic beverages comprised almost 40 percent of household expenditures in 2018.”— GAIN more than half of their budget on essentials including food. Purchases of food and nonalcoholic beverages comprised almost 40 percent of household expenditures in 2018,” it added. The report noted that most modern grocery retailers are in Metro Manila and other key areas where most middle-income earners reside.
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PHL households to boost food retail sales to $50B this year–GAIN report
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See “House Speaker,” A2
KING OF BOXING Manny Pacquiao, 40, gives yet another one-sided thrashing to Father Time, pulling off a split decision victory over erstwhile unbeaten Keith Thurman to snatch the World Boxing Association welterweight title at the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas that repeatedly chanted Pacquiao’s name from the moment he reached the ring. See story on C1. AP
NUMBER of resorts on Panglao Island in Bohol continue to violate easement regulations, despite the six-month period given them to address these problems. Several areas in the surrounding waters were also found to be polluted, a separate government report also noted. The deadline for the Bohol local government unit (LGU) and tourism stakeholders to improve water quality or fix their respective violations ended on May 31. “The compliance is still low. Less than half of the resorts along Alona Beach have complied with the easement ordinance,” disclosed a government official, after a team from the Department of the Interior See “Panglao,” A4
US 51.0290 n JAPAN 0.4756 n UK 64.0363 n HK 6.5289 n CHINA 7.4165 n SINGAPORE 37.6181 n AUSTRALIA 36.1030 n EU 57.5556 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.6070
Source: BSP (19 July 2019 )