NG 4-mo borrowing exceeds 2019 level By Bernadette D. Nicolas
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T only took four months for the Philippine government to surpass the total amount it borrowed for the entire 2019. Citing latest data from the Bureau of the Treasury, the Department of Finance (DOF) on Tuesday said the state has already borrowed P1.22 trillion as of end-April. In 2019 the national government’s gross borrowing was at P1.02 trillion. The new data already adjusted the net financing data to include the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) purchase of P300-billion government securities under a repurchase agreement, with a maximum repayment period of six months. Net of repayments to government’s creditors and bondholders for existing loans, the government’s financing increased by an additional P873 billion from end-2019 to April this year, the DOF said.
RED stickers dot the floor at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Terminal 3, one of the health security measures being implemented at the airport as it prepares for the reopening of international flights. NONIE REYES
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Eighty-one percent of the new borrowings or around P982 billion was sourced domestically through the sale of Treasury bills and Treasury bonds and through BSP’s P300billion short-term loan. The balance, amounting to around P237 billion or 19 percent of the total, was sourced externally through a mix of concessional foreign loans and bond issuances. Since the state already borrowed P1.22 trillion as of end-April, Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III said the Duterte administration will be sticking to its position to limit state spending only to a “manageable and sustainable level” of 9-percent budget deficit. Dominguez said the higher borrowings this year would be used by the Duterte administration to address the effects of its measures against the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic and the eruption of the Taal Volcano on the economy. “None of us knows how long this
pandemic will last. As we have borrowed a lot—P1.22 trillion in just four months, to be exact—fiscal space should be saved to afford us elbow room in case future circumstances require a new round of big health-care spending, subsidies and/or stimulus programs,” he said. “Loans are not free money,” he added. “They are advances that we, or even our children and their children, will have to pay for in some way in the future. The Duterte administration’s policy is to be careful not to borrow beyond sustainable levels, lest we fall into a vicious cycle of accumulating unmanageable debt, which might drastically increase our financing costs, and plunge us deeper into debt.” The economic team earlier reported that a target budget deficit of 9 percent, which takes into account the administration’s proposed stimulus measures, would
See “Debt,” A2
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Wednesday, July 8, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 272
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BSP TOOLS READY IF ECONOMY NEEDS ANOTHER BOOST
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FOLLOWING the five-day suspension of operations of the MRT 3 due to the rising number of Covid-19 infections among its employees, passengers at the MRT North Edsa station in Quezon City on Tuesday take the alternative Edsa Busway, buses fielded by the government to augment the rail service. NONOY LACZA
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By Cai U. Ordinario
OCAL economists said the recent increase in inflation is not yet a clear indication that domestic demand has indeed recovered or is recovering from the lockdowns imposed in March. Based on the latest data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Tuesday, inflation averaged 2.5 percent in June, higher than the 2.1 percent posted in May but still slower than the 2.7 percent posted in June 2019. Infla-
tion averaged 2.5 percent in the first semester of the year. Core inflation, which is an indicator of long-term inflation trend and future inflation, averaged 3 percent in June, higher than the 2.9 percent posted in May
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but slower than the 3.3 percent in June last year. “Gradual opening up of the economy correlates with consumption spending, which then puts pressure on prices to rise. But this does not mean that we are on the verge of recovery, particularly in light of the recent surge in Covid-19 cases. This will force people to limit mobility and reduce spending,” Action for Economic Reforms (AER) Coordinator Filomeno Sta. Ana III told the BusinessMirror via SMS. Former University of the Philippines Dean Ramon Clarete said that while demand may have improved “a bit” given the latest inflation data, it will have little influence over the
country’s growth prospects. It may be noted that inflation is an indicator of demand, which is crucial in boosting economic growth. In the Philippines’ case, Clarete said, the economy is still in a recession with GDP growth forecasted to contract this year.
‘Temporary’ reaction
UNIONBANK Chief Economist Ruben Carlo V. Asuncion told the BusinessMirror that the recent increase in inflation may have been a “temporary or knee-jerk” reaction to the lifting of lockdowns in some areas and easing of restrictions on others.
HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reiterated its readiness to act promptly should the economy need another boost, following the government’s announcement that inflation has picked up in June. In a statement to reporters, BSP governor Benjamin Diokno said although inflation accelerated in June, the outturn is “consistent with the BSP’s prevailing assessment” that inflation pressures remain limited due largely to the adverse impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the domestic and global economic conditions. Inflation in June hit 2.5 percent, the first uptick since the start of the year. “The BSP remains committed to use of monetary instruments and regulatory relief measures when needed further in fulfillment of its mandate to promote non-inflationary and sustainable growth,” Diokno said. “The BSP likewise reiterates its support for the health and fiscal programs already being rolled out by the national government to support the needs of Filipino households and firms amid the pandemic,” he added. Also despite the uptick, the BSP believes that the inflation environment will remain for the rest of 2020 and up until 2021. They expect inflation to average at 2.3 percent for this year—lower than the actual six-month average of 2.5 percent. For next year, the BSP expects an inflation average of 2.6 percent. ING Bank economist Nicholas Mapa also believes that inflation will continue to be muted in the coming months, but because of a different indicator: unemployment. He said in an assessment report that price pressures will remain subdued as demand remains crippled by record-high unemployment. “Despite the acceleration in June, price pressures remain subdued with the economy reeling from the ill effects of the threemonth lockdown imposed in March. With unemployment skyrocketing to 17.7 percent in 2Q, demand for commodities remains weak,” he said. He also believes that the BSP will refrain from cutting its policy rates in the next meeting and will resort to other additional liquidity enhancement measures should the economy need more stimulus. Diokno said they expect the economy to recover via a U-shaped path: output is likely to contract further in the remaining quarters of 2020 before recovering in 2021 once the impact of government policy support measures gains traction. Diokno also said their outlook for the global economy has further deteriorated with considerable uncertainty brought about by the magnitude and duration of containment measures across all economies. See “BSP,” A2
Continued on A2
n JAPAN 0.4607 n UK 61.7941 n HK 6.3818 n CHINA 7.0460 n SINGAPORE 35.5258 n AUSTRALIA 34.4927 n EU 55.9480 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.1883
Source: BSP (July 7, 2020)