Recovery hinges on stimulus funds—think tank By Cai U. Ordinario
@caiordinario
H
HOUSEKEEPING attendants Evelyn Atienza and Glenda Valdez do their chores inside the pre-departure area of Naia Terminal 3, which will resume international operations starting July 8, 2020. The airport's Terminal 3 airlines which were relocated to Naia Terminal 1 in March will return to Terminal 3 ahead of the resumption of operations. NONIE REYES
OPES for a quick V-shaped recovery are dimming as a local think tank now projects that the P1.3-trillion stimulus package has yet to be approved and spent. In its latest Market Call report, First Metro Investment Corp.-University of Asia and the Pacific (FMIC-UA&P) Capital Market Research said bulk of the stimulus package can only be spent in 2021. The think tank said the country’s recovery from the coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic relies on the ability of the government to spend the stimulus. It is expected that the measure can only be approved in August. “A V-shaped recovery may not ensue unless the government can start spending fast its new stimulus package of some P1.3-trillion [approval may come only by
August] and ability of firms to restore and strengthen their supply chains and provide safe work environments for their workers,” FMIC-UA&P Capital Market Research said. The think tank said consumer spending is not expected to recover soon, since firms may still feel the need to save more for “unexpected adverse events.” These include a second wave, which the think tank does not think likely; typhoons which are prevalent in the second half of the year; and the slow delivery of financial support to Filipinos from the government. This dampens demand and is the reason for FMIC-UA&P Capital Market Research to project a benign inflation despite the recent increase in oil prices. “Even though crude oil prices have soared in June, these will remain still 40 percent below those [prices] a year earlier. Food prices may only have a slight uptick as removal of strict quarantine mandates
would allow faster restoration of supply chains and transport services. Thus, we see limited upside for headline inflation in Q3 [third quarter],” it said. However, the think tank said it already expects positive growth in the third quarter and near-normal growth in the fourth quarter. It also expects that the employment data to be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) in September will not be as grim as the April data, which revealed 5 million Filipinos became unemployed during the period. This optimism, the think tank said, is supported by the gradual easing in lockdowns particularly in Metro Manila and Central Luzon. The recent transition to general community quarantine (GCQ) and better of these areas has freed up about 62 percent of GDP. Continued on A4
BIZ LEADERS SEEK FULL
w
n Monday, July 6, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 270
P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 16 pages |
OPERATION IN KEY AREAS ONLINE PURCHASES SEEN TO PUSH UP PHL FOOD RETAIL SALES
O
CATHOLICS observe physical distancing as they attend Sunday mass at Quiapo Church in Manila, which is under general community quarantine. ROYDOMINGO
I
By Elijah Felice E. Rosales
@alyasjah
NDUSTRY leaders on Sunday endorsed the full resumption of work in several sectors, particularly construction and manufacturing, deemed crucial in the economy’s recovery in the second half of the year.
Private sector leaders polled by the BusinessMirror agreed the government should now permit some industries to return to 100 percent capacity. Authorizing the full resumption of operations in selected fields would not only generate revenue for the economy, but provide jobs as well for millions in a time of rising unemployment,
they said. American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines Executive Director Ebb Hinchliffe called on policy-makers to let the construction and manufacturing sectors return full gear to supply the domestic requirements for infrastructure and finished goods. Continued on A2
Lawmakers cite urgency of Bayanihan 2’s passage By Butch Fernandez @butchfBM
& Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz @joveemarie
L
AWMAKERS on Sunday reiterated willingness to tackle measures to help businesses and workers recover from Covid-related disruptions, as they await Palace’s final confirmation of the date for a special session for the purpose.
And, unlike the Bayanihan 1 law which mostly comprised outright doles amid the emergency situation from the forced lockdowns to stop Covid-19’s spread, the bulk of Bayanihan 2 will go to lending to businesses and sectors disrupted by the pandemic, and to ramp up testing and contact tracing to fight the virus, Sen. Juan Edgardo Angara said over the weekend. Thus, timely passage of the second
PESO EXCHANGE RATES n
measure, officially called Bayanihan to Recover as One Act—in contrast to the first Bayanihan to Heal as One —is of urgency, given the need to help businesses and workers get back on their feet, and grow the economy, he pointed out in a radio interview. Angara, chairman of Finance Committee endorsing the money measure, gave assurances of the Senate’s readiness to frontload approval of the awaited funding
that senators trimmed from P157 billion to P140 billion before their sine die adjournment last June 5. They approved it on second reading, but could not proceed to third reading, as the Executive failed to send a certificate of urgency that would have allowed the chamber to shortcircuit the three-day requirement between second- and third-reading approvals.
NLINE food purchases by Filipino households during the Covid-19 pandemic will drive the country’s food retail sales to rise by a fifth to a record-high $60 billion this year, according to the Global Agricultural Information Network (Gain). The Gain report, which was prepared by the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila, expects a 30-percent shift by Filipino consumers to online food shopping. The country’s food retail sales reached an unprecedented $50 billion last year on the back of higher purchases by the middle-income class earners, according to a previous Gain report. Although online grocery stores and delivery platforms have been existing for quite sometime, Filipinos embraced these more during the Covid-19 pandemic to cope with social distancing measures, it added. “Since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak, consumers have been increasingly cooking food at home, driving a surge in purchases of local and imported food and beverage products from supermarkets and online portals,” read the report, which was published recently. “Based on interviews with the key players, 25 to 30 percent of their shoppers have shifted to online platforms and they foresee more will move in the coming months as user interfaces are improved, out-of-stock situations are addressed, and delivery times are shortened,” the report added.
Key players
THE report noted that some of the online key players in food retail are Landers, LazMart, Shopee Mart, MetroMart, Puregold, SM Markets Online and Waltermart delivery.
Citing traders, the Gain report said 70 percent of the food service sales or about $10 billion would go to the food retail sector this year as consumers shift away from restaurants to cooking food at home. “Retailers with strong digital presence are likely to fare better in 2020 as consumers move towards e-commerce since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak,” the report added. “This unprecedented shift from food service to food retail has created opportunities for more US food and beverage grocery products to enter the market. The Philippines has been a growing market for imported foods and beverages even prior to the Covid-19 pandemic due to its emerging service-based economy backed by the so-called demographic sweet spot, according to the Gain report. “With a population of 109 million in a combined landmass the size of Arizona, opportunities for imported foods and beverages are already significant and continue to offer strong potential for growth into the future,” it added. Last month, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) disclosed that Filipinos would demand healthier foods and rely more on digital transactions for their food transactions under the country’s “new normal.” These are some of the results of the survey conducted by the Neda a few months ago that sought to define and characterize what is the new normal in the country’s agriculture sector. Online platforms have also become a vital instrument to help farmers directly link with consumers during the Covid-19 pandemic as traditional markets have been disrupted due to restricted movement. Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
Continued on A2
US 49.7770 n JAPAN 0.4630 n UK 62.0769 n HK 6.4228 n CHINA 7.0446 n SINGAPORE 35.6876 n AUSTRALIA 34.4556 n EU 55.9543 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.2721
Source: BSP (3 July 2020)