BusinessMirror January 08, 2020

Page 1

’19 INFLATION JUST AT 2.5% BUT RISKS SEEN By Cai U. Ordinario

T

HE inflation rate could quicken in 2020 amid tensions between the United States and Iran, which could jack up oil prices, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) and local economists. This despite the country’s full-year inflation slowing to 2.5 percent in 2019 from 5.2 percent in 2018, well within the government’s 2-4 percent inflation target. Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development (Acerd) Director Alvin P. Ang said inflation could

Gas nozzles dangle at a gasoline station in Ermita, Manila, in this BusinessMirror file photo. The inflation rate could quicken in 2020 amid tensions between the United States and Iran, which could jack up oil prices, according to the National Economic and Development Authority and local economists. NONIE REYES

w

@caiordinario

n

average 4 percent this year. However, BPI Lead Economist Emilio S. Neri Jr. said there is even a possibility that inflation could be higher than 4 percent if geopolitical tensions persist. “Our full-year 2020 forecast is 3.4 percent assuming WTI [West Texas intermediate] crude oil stays close to $60 per barrel. That will mean some months will be near 4 percent,” Neri said. “TRAIN taxes, transport fare hike, fading base effects from rice will be key drivers. If oil rallies further we could see inflation prints above 4 percent,” he added. Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia had a word of caution: the escalating tension in the Middle

Wednesday, January 8, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 90

PHL dollar reserves rise to ‘all-time high’ A

By Bianca Cuaresma

@BcuaresmaBM

MID concerns that the conflict between the United States and Iran could bring risk back to markets, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Tuesday reported that the country’s dollar reserves hit an all-time high as of end-December 2019. Preliminary data released by the BSP indicated that the gross international reserves reached $87.86 billion in December, higher than the $86.23 billion posted in No-

vember. The GIR as of the end of the year is the highest on record for the Philippines. The country’s GIR is the level of foreign-exchange holdings the

BSP has during a given period. The GIR is a crucial component of the economy as it is often used to manage the country’s foreign-exchange rate against excess volatility.

East may disrupt global oil supply and lead to a surge in the prices of petroleum products and overall inflation. Pernia added that in the short term, demand management and alternative sources of petroleum products should be explored, and over the medium to long term, shifting away from fossil fuel and import dependence should be encouraged. “The government should effectively manage expectations at the domestic front and be vigilant against any unwarranted increase in pump prices considering that the last tranche of excise tax increase on fuel products will be implemented this month,” he added. See “Inflation,” A2

P25.00 nationwide | 5 sections 38 pages |

HIGHER INFLATION WON’T DERAIL RATE CUT PLAN

T

According to the BSP, the monthon-month increase in the GIR level reflects the inflows arising from its foreign-exchange operations and income from its investments abroad, and the national government’s net foreign-currency deposits.

HE higher-than-expected inflation print in December will not rid the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) of its easing bias in 2020, as economists say the country will still have enough monetary-policy room for rate cuts during the year. On Tuesday, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) announced that the country’s inflation numbers ticked up to 2.5 percent in December 2019—a significant acceleration from the 1.3 percent seen in November last year. While it is still within the expected band of the BSP Department of Economic Research (DER) forecast for the month, it is in the upper end of their range. Economists said while the new inflation print will keep the BSP Monetary Board on their toes in formulating policy decisions in 2020, the country’s central monetary authority will likely not dial down on its easing projection for the year. “The surprise inflation print in December should keep the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas on notice as they gauge price developments going into 2020,” ING Bank Manila economist Nicholas Mapa said. “The recent escalation in tension between the US and Iran may exert additional inflationary pressure on the headline print with global crude oil prices rising at a time when excise taxes are levied on fuel products in January 2020. “Despite these developments, BSP Governor [Benjamin] Diokno was quick to downplay a possible upside breach although he did note that risks to the inflation outlook are on the ‘upside’. We continue to believe that the BSP will have the scope to ease monetary policy further in 2020 with the first rate cut slated for the February meeting,” he added.

See “Dollar,” A2

See “Rate,” A2

$87.86B

The country’s gross international reserves (GIR) in December, per preliminary data released by the BSP. It is higher than the $86.23 billion posted in November and is the highest on record for the Philippines

Manufacturing output continues to dip–PSA

T

HE country’s manufacturing output continued to plummet as the Volume of Production Index (VoPI) posted its 12th month of consecutive decline in November, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). In the preliminary results of the Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (Missi), the VoPI posted a contraction of 6.1 percent in November 2019, lower than the 1.9-percent growth it posted in November 2018. The VoPI has been in decline since December 2018. The deepest contractions posted by the VoPI were in April 2019 with 14 percent, followed by June 2019 at 10.5 percent and December 2018 at 10.1 percent. “Industries need to be encouraged to innovate and adopt efficient technologies. This is a key strategy to entice more investments, similar

PESO exchange rates n

to the experiences of the country’s Asean peers, such as Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia said. The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) said an industrial policy propelled by innovation is needed to drive the country’s manufacturing growth amid the bleak near-term outlook of the sector. Pernia added the passage of the 2020 budget is a welcome move in ensuring the continuity of critical government projects. “The signing of the 2020 budget into law by the President ensures the continuity of projects aimed [at attracting] local and offshore investments to boost growth and create more and quality employment opportunities for Filipinos,” he said. See “Manufacturing,” A2

Early 2020 woes fuel peso fears

W

IMAGES BLESSED Replicas of the Black Nazarene are displayed in a procession in Manila’s Quiapo district on Tuesday, in one of the events leading up to the January 9 Traslación. At 2 p.m., priests started blessing the replicas after the grand parade of Nazarene images in different sizes. BERNARD TESTA

ORRIES that the local currency may lose value against the dollar this year are steadily firming up, as higher inflation and global tensions fuel concerns about the peso. Barely a week has passed in 2020 and economists already have a forecast as to how the peso would end this year—at 51.70 against the US dollar, according to Fitch Solutions, Fitch Group’s think tank. In a research note published on Tuesday, Fitch Solutions expressed concerns about the country’s twin deficits of budget and current account and how this standing could affect the peso’s attractiveness compared to other regional currencies. Continued on A8

US 51.1610 n japan 0.4721 n UK 67.3790 n HK 6.5850 n CHINA 7.3330 n singapore 37.9251 n australia 35.5006 n EU 57.2850 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.6393

Source: BSP (7 January 2020)


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.
BusinessMirror January 08, 2020 by BusinessMirror - Issuu