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Saturday, February 15, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 128
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MINDANAO GETS ASF ‘TERROR’ JOLT D
By Manuel T. Cayon
AVAO CITY—Until now, practically nobody could come up with a plausible explanation yet on how the dreaded African Swine Fever (ASF) managed to sneak into the sleepy and dusty down of Don Marcelino town of Davao Occidental in the final week of January, more than six months after the first case of ASF infection was recorded in the Philippines’s Luzon island.
AUTHORITIES ARE FIGHTING AN UPHILL BATTLE TO CONTROL THE SPREAD OF THE DREADED HOG DISEASE IN THE DAVAO REGION, NEIGHBORING AREAS
When the reports came of a lockdown in the transport of pigs (or swine, or hogs) and other pork products in the town, and the confirmation of the ASF incursion across the Davao region and the neighboring regions, authorities were jolted into the realization that the first case of infection just happened in Mindanao. This southern Philippine island had put up a strong guard against incursions of other livestock diseases in the past, from the foot-and-mouth disease to bird flu,
that were infecting Luzon. Apparently, the quarantine protocols remained in place, but the suspicious look was cast on port quarantine and the unchecked supply channel through the little piers in small provincial capitals and major towns. This also includes the supposed impractical move to subject all travelers to individual search to ferret out those carrying possible infected pork meat products in small packages, an indication of the porosity of quarantine in the ports.
This may have been aggravated by the nonchalant behavior of the public since they may have not been informed or warned, or simply put, would not know any better.
Economic losses
THE economic consequence and serious production and supply problem, according to the Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health, has been directed at the spread of the ASF, especially in Asia. The impact is harsh among backyard hog-raisers, where bio-
safety procedures are practically absent and animal health issues are widespread but minimally attended to. Agriculture Secretary William Dar said losses in Luzon alone since last year have reached P1 billion every month. Here, in the infected areas of Davao Occidental and Davao City, the losses could not be less than P80 million in the first week of containment amid culling and depopulation of swine farms. This Continued on a2
Virus death toll will get worse even as outbreak wanes By Robert Langreth and Michelle Fay Cortez
A
Bloomberg News
S signs emerge that China’s coronavirus outbreak may be moderating, a morbid reminder of the disease’s toll is expected to persist, or even rise, in the days to come. While new cases reported in China appeared to decline after a February 4, 2020, peak, the number of dead has grown to around a hundred a day—double the daily count of just a few weeks ago. But those deaths aren’t a sign the virus is getting more deadly, according to experts. “Deaths are a lagging indicator,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, who is modeling the outbreak. Once people are in-
fected, “it takes around three weeks on average for someone to die.” On Thursday, the Hubei province where the outbreak is centered issued a revised count of cases and deaths, using a new methodology. The new method adds 13,332 new cases and 135 deaths to the total in the province—infections that were diagnosed using medical imaging but not a lab test. Across China, more than 1,300 people have died from the virus and
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WORKERS arrange beds in a convention center that has been converted into a temporary hospital in Wuhan in central China’s Hubei Province, February 4, 2020. CHINATOPIX VIA AP
more than 59,000 have been infected, according to authorities. Outside experts have said the number of cases is likely far higher, and Hubei’s announcement that it was counting thousands of new cases in its total will likely add to that analysis. As of Wednesday, there were 8,204 patients classified as severe cases, according to numbers released by Chinese officials. New confirmed cases have fallen to about 2,000 a day, down from a peak more than 3,500 daily cases last week. “If cases only plateaued a week ago, we might expect numbers of new deaths to continue to rise for some time yet,” said Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. The chaotic nature of the outbreak combined with limited access by international experts to Hubei province, where it began, has made it hard to know the full extent of the epidemic. Bloomberg and other Continued on a2
n JAPAN 0.4599 n UK 65.8976 n HK 6.5023 n CHINA 7.2381 n SINGAPORE 36.3574 n AUSTRALIA 33.9286 n EU 54.7615 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.4659
Source: BSP (February 14, 2020)