BusinessMirror February 13, 2019

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POLL MAGIC NOT A BIG GROWTH BOOST By Bianca Cuaresma @BcuaresmaBM

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HE Philippine economy is expected to grow faster this year, but only by a few notches above last year’s numbers, as higher interest rates and budget delays will likely bite into the capital formation segment of the country’s growth, according to some private economists. At the ING Bank’s annual economic forum in Makati City on Tuesday, the bank’s economists discussed growth prospects in and out of the country—with the conclusion that most of the risks to the country’s growth numbers for 2019 will emanate from local forces rather than global developments this year.

A WORKER is framed by concrete pipes stacked at a construction site inside the New Clark City, one of the big-ticket infrastructure projects that began this year. A private economist said the delay in the approval of the 2019 budget will cut into the growth of capital formation in the country, as public construction will likely suffer with an unapproved budget. NONIE REYES

DEPT. OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

PHILIPPINE STATISTICS AUTHORITY

2018 BANTOG DATA MEDIA AWARDS CHAMPION

The bank’s Manila-based senior economist, Nicholas Mapa, forecast local growth to hit 6.3 percent in 2019. This forecast is higher than the actual 2018 growth number of 6.2 percent. While Mapa’s forecast signals an acceleration in economic activity for this year, it pales in comparison to the growth rates seen in the last three election years. In 2010, an election year, the growth hit a rate of 7.6 percent. The 2013 election year generated a 7.1-percent growth for the country and the latest 2016 presidential election year yielded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.9 percent. According to Mapa, election years historically provided a boost to economic growth due to the polls’ ability to cause a

surge in the growth of capital formation in the economy for the year. In 2010, for example, capital formation surged to a 4.4-percent growth, stronger than the then 2-percent growth in household consumption. The trend follows in 2013 with capital formation ballooning to a 4.3-percent growth compared to the 3.3-percent growth in consumption. In 2016, capital formation hit 4.9 percent to offset the strong deficit in the country’s net trade numbers. The segment also grew faster than the 4.1-percent growth in household consumption. For this election year, though, Mapa said capital formation is only expected to grow by 3.3 percent—a flat number from See “Poll magic,” A8

BusinessMirror A broader look at today’s business

www.businessmirror.com.ph

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Wednesday, February 13, 2019 Vol. 14 No. 126

Govt, biz split on cause of tempered exports data

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By Elijah Felice E. Rosales

@alyasjah

HAT is to blame for the tempered exports performance last year? For the government, it is the trade conflict between the United States and China. For exporters, it is the uncertainties brought about by the proposed rationalization of incentives.

Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said the collapse of the multilateral trading system heavily impacted the import bill of Philippine products. He argued this was most evident in the export receipts of electronic products and semiconduc-

tors—the country’s top exports. “On the market side, since the Philippines, as well as 10 other Asian economies, suffered from an export decline in December, it is quite apparent that the downward trend in exports was brought

about by softening global demand induced by global growth slowdown, as well as increased uncertainty, amid escalating US-China trade tensions,” Lopez said in a text message to reporters. “Electronics supply chain in

“Worst case is departure of companies for countries with [a] more conducive investment climate, like Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. I don’t see this happening this year, but this may happen in subsequent years.”—Lachica

the region was adversely affected, as lower orders from one country can lead to lower orders in other supplier countries. Electronics sector, which used to average over 5-percent growth, has now settled at 2.8-percent growth,” he added. Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed export receipts of electronic products last year expanded 2.8 percent

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@caiordinario

RADE headwinds will pose risks to the country’s export and import performance this year, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda). In a statement, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia said policy uncertainties, amid trade tensions between the United States and China, will significantly affect the country’s exports this year. In 2018, the Philippines already registered lackluster trade performance with exports posting a contraction of 1.8 percent. Imports was able to eke out a 2.8-percent fullyear growth last year. “Merchandise trade in all the monitored Asian economies continued to weaken in the last month of 2018, as the region began to feel the impact of the weakening Chinese economy and the US-China trade tension,” Pernia said. “Policy uncertainty remains a threat to global trade, investment and output, especially as US-China trade tensions continue,” he added. Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development (Ac-

The fundamentally caring character of states

Teddy Locsin Jr.

FREE FIRE STATEMENT delivered by Gil S. Beltran, undersecretary, Department of Finance, government of the Philippines, at the 57th Session of the Commission for Social Development on February 11-21, 2019, UN Headquarters, New York. Madame Chair,

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O development policy is sound that does not put the greatest number of people at the front and center. Wealth that is enjoyed only by the few is no better than poverty for it breeds inequality, fosters social exclusion and creates a divide that takes generations to close. Continued on A6

See “Exports,” A8

PHL Econ Freedom Index seen to improve

1.8%

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According to Sangcopan, the framework is needed as there are global Islamic financial institutions interested in the DBP-owned AIIB, but are waiting for a general framework. “In the House of Representatives, we already approved on third reading House Bill 8281 that seeks to provide for the Islamic banking

HE Department of Finance (DOF) expects the country’s ranking in line with the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) for economies of the Heritage Foundation to improve in 2020, coming from the 70th spot among 186 economies in 2019. In the DOF’s latest economic bulletin from Finance Undersecretar y Gi l S. Beltran, the department said it expects the Phi lippines’s rank ing to r ise in 2020, as reforms will be put in place by the government to boost development. This year it bore an overall score of 63.8. “For index year 2020, the country’s score is expected to improve significantly,” the DOF said. Measures seen to enhance the country’s economic stance include: the signing of the Personal Property Security Act, which is seen to improve the score on property rights; and the signing of the rice tariffication bill, which will also reduce the penalty for nontariff barriers in the computation of the trade freedom index. Furthermore, the DOF said full

Continued on A2

Continued on A2

The contraction of Philippine exports in 2018. Imports eked out a 2.8-percent full-year growth

erd) Director Alvin P. Ang told the BusinessMirror that external trade performance this year will be moderate mainly due to the weakness in China’s economy. However, exports performance will still be able to recover to singledigit growth this year, while imports may post a 12-percent growth. Ang said exports performance will be less than government expectations, which is at 6 percent this year. His expectation of imports growth is slightly higher than government estimates of 9 percent.

‘Deeper forces at work’

FOR Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Senior Research Fellow Roehlano M. Briones, further economic global growth slowdown will make or break trade performance this year, especially export earnings growth. See “Trade headwinds,” A2

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Trade headwinds pose risks to PHL exports, imports in 2019–Neda By Cai U. Ordinario

2017 EJAP JOURNALISM AWARDS

CUT-FLOWER CAPITAL Enterprising vendor Margarita Bagayan entices visitors with bouquets of mixed blooms along Harrison Road in Baguio City, just in time for Valentine’s Day and the Panagbenga Festival. Despite the varieties of cut flowers, roses still remain as the best-seller, commanding P1,200 per bundle. The high-value blooms come from the uplands of La Trinidad, Benguet, dubbed as the Cut-flower Capital of the North. SUZANNE JUNE G. PERANTE

DBP urged to lobby for Islamic banking bill By Jovee Marie N. dela Cruz

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@joveemarie

LAWMAKER on Tuesday appealed to the Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) to lobby before the Senate the passage of the Islamic banking and financing framework in the country, as certain parties are interested in the

DBP-owned Al-Amanah Islamic Investment Bank (AIIB). Party-list Rep. Amihilda J. Sangcopan of Anak Mindanao made the push following DBP’s pronouncement that there is no initiative in forwarding and creating the law on an Islamic banking framework in the country despite the lower chamber’s approval of a measure creating such framework.

n JAPAN 0.4711 n UK 66.8850 n HK 6.6259 n CHINA 7.6558 n SINGAPORE 38.2170 n AUSTRALIA 36.7262 n EU 58.6433 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.8654

Source: BSP (12 February 2019 )


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BusinessMirror February 13, 2019 by BusinessMirror - Issuu