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Thursday, December 14, 2017 Vol. 13 No. 64
PHL seen sustaining 6.7% GDP growth for the year
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By Cai U. Ordinari
@cuo_bm
he Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its forecast for the Philippines’s GDP expansion this year to 6.7 percent, although Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia said this is just “the minimum” growth the government is now expecting given the economy’s performance thus far.
This outlook assumes that growth in the government’s infrastructure program will accelerate, supported by improvements in budget execution”—ADB
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WB bats for ‘new social contract’ for East Asia Rene E. Ofreneo
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In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) Supplement, the Manila-based multilateral development bank also upgraded its 2018 growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.8 percent. This is on the
n recent years, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been adjusting their neoliberal growth panacea for borrowing countries. In an earlier column, we reported on how the IMF’s research department, in an article entitled “Neoliberalism oversold” (published in the IMF’s Finance & Development, June 2016), documented and decried the inequality and unsustainability outcomes arising from their own neoliberal prescriptions, specifically the policies promoting the unrestricted flow of capital and the downsizing of the state capacity in intervening in the economy.
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Asia’s top inflation-targeting central bank may be preparing to hike rates
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new christmas attraction Filipinos pose for souvenir shots at the “Christmas House” owned by businessman Alexander Cruz in Cainta, Rizal, on Tuesday. The whole house, decorated with hundreds of thousands of LED lights, has attracted local and foreign tourists. AP/Bullit Marquez
small economy that’s constantly battling risks beyond its control like typhoons and oil prices has been one of the most successful at managing inflation in Asia. The Philippine Central Bank, which has an annual inflation target that’s currently set at 2 percent to 4 percent, met its goal six times in the past eight years, and the two times it failed were because prices were too low. That was a better outcome than other inflationtargeting banks in Asia, namely, Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Japan and India adopted formal targets more recently, while in China, the government sets the goal. Polic-makers’ credibility in the Philippines is now being put to the test. The economy is expanding more than 6 percent a year and risks overheating, adding to inflation pressures. Economists predict the Central Bank will be among the first to follow South Korea in raising interest rates next year, with two analysts saying it could happen as early as Thursday. The rest
forecast the benchmark rate will be held at a recordlow 3 percent. “Growth is robust and inflationary risks are tilted to the upside,” said Gundy Cahyadi, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore, who predicts a rate increase this week. “Given the expansionary fiscal policy and strong investment growth, a rate hike is probably warranted to prevent overheating risks.” Continued on A12
‘Gains from TRAIN closer to what govt needs’ PHL thumbs down tariff cuts on farm goods
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espite some new measures being introduced to the first package of the Comprehensive Tax Reform Program (CTRP) by the bicameral conference committee on Monday, the Department of Finance (DOF) said the final version of the proposed Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Act is seen to yield net revenue gains at a level that is closer to what the government wants. According to Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III, the DOF has accommodated other provisions that were introduced by lawmakers in the reconciled version of the TRAIN bill.
“We did not propose [the new provisions] in Package One. However, we respect the right of the legislature to introduce taxes as they see fit. It’s part of the law, and we accept that,” Dominguez said on the sidelines of the Holcim Philippines Geocycle coprocessing tour in Norzagaray, Bulacan on Tuesday. Measures that were inserted in the final TRAIN bill under the scrutiny of the bicameral conference committee include the increase in coal excise taxes, minerals, tobacco products and the inclusion of a tax on cosmetic procedures. The increase in coal excise tax, which was originally proposed to be included in the DOF’s fifth
PESO exchange rates n US 50.4350
package of the CTRP, was raised from the current P10 per metric ton (MT) to P50 per MT in the first year of implementation, P100 in the second year and P150 in the succeeding years. The approved TRAIN version also proposes to double the tax rates for all nonmetallic minerals and quarry resources, and metallic minerals, including copper, gold and chromite to 4 percent. Increase in tobacco excise-tax rates was included in the final version of the bill, from the current P30 per pack, it will be raised to P32.5 in the first half of next year and to P35 starting from July 2018 to December 2019 Continued on A12
in exchange for safeguard deal at WTO meet By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas
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@jearcalas
egotiations on the establishment of a special safeg uard mechanism (SSM) for developing countries, such as the Philippines, and least-developed countries (LDCs) ended in stalemate on the third day of the 11th World Trade Organization (W TO) Ministerial Conference (MC11). Raul Q. Montemayor, national business manager and program officer of the Federation of Free Farmers (FFF), told the BusinessMirror
that some member-countries have asked for deeper tariff cuts in exchange for their nod for SSM. ”It’s a stalemate; we are still having meetings until the evening. There were negotiations earlier, and it seems nothing has been agreed upon,” Montemayor said in an interview early Wednesday (December 13, Philippine time). “Some of the countries want to link the SSM with tariff cuts. They are saying that SSM cannot be stand-alone. They are arguing that ‘we will give you SSM, but lower your tariffs in exchange,’” he added.
Montemayor, who is part of the Philippine delegation to MC11 in Argentina, said Philippine negotiators will remain firm in pushing for SSM without reducing the tariffs of developing countries and LDCs. “In the previous ministerial conferences, there have been ministerial declarations that there would be an SSM. However, it was not stated in those declarations that it would be linked to tariff cuts,” he said. “So, that is what our negotiators are pushing here right now. This Continued on A2
n japan 0.4444 n UK 67.1946 n HK 6.4606 n CHINA 7.6168 n singapore 37.3040 n australia 38.1339 n EU 59.2410 n SAUDI arabia 13.4486
Source: BSP (13 December 2017 )