BusinessMirror August 07, 2020

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DBCC sees worse full-yr contraction at 5.5% By Bernadette D. Nicolas

@BNicolasBM

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HE Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) now expects the economy to contract deeper by 5.5 percent this year, potentially marking the country’s worst economic downturn in 35 years. The latest assumption of DBCC on the country’s GDP growth is even worse than its previous projection in May of -2 to -3.4 percent this year. Should the economy shrink by 5.5 percent this year, this would be the lowest since the 6.9-percent GDP contraction in 1985 based on 2018 prices. In 1985, the economy contracted by 6.9 percent due in part to the debt crisis the country experienced that year. In December 1985, then President

MOTORISTS submit documents as they apply for a travel pass in San Juan City, where police recently arrested a barangay liaison officer who showed fake travel documents at a checkpoint. BERNARD TESTA

Ferdinand E. Marcos called for a snap election, a move that in months would end his absolute rule of 14 years. In a statement on Thursday, the DBCC said the downward revision was made on July 28 based on the updated indicators on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on tourism, trade and remittances throughout the year. For next year, the DBCC has also cut its GDP growth forecast to 6.5 to 7.5 percent from 8 to 9 percent previously. Despite this, the DBCC is optimistic that the country is “on track to economic recovery” as the national government continues its pump-priming activities, including the government’s “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program and revitalization of industry and services sectors. However, it expressed confidence

that the economy will grow at a slightly faster pace of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent, up from its earlier projection of 6 to 7 percent. Goods exports and imports growth are also now expected to plunge by 16 percent and 18 percent, respectively, due to a slowdown in global trade amid the pandemic. This is far worse than the 4 percent and 5.5 percent earlier expected by the economic team. For 2021 and 2022, it retained its earlier forecast that goods exports will grow by 5 percent while goods imports will grow by 8 percent. Mea nwh i le, rem it t a nces f rom overseas Filipino workers are seen to fall by 5 percent this year, but are expected to return to the normal annual growth rate of 4 percent in 2021 and 2022. See “DBCC,” A2

‘WITH RECESSION, 5.5% 2020 GDP RETREAT DIM’

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n Friday, August 7, 2020 Vol. 15 No. 302

P25.00 nationwide | 2 sections 16 pages |

DOF: GOVT STICKING TO P180-B STIMULUS PACKAGE THIS YEAR

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DEPARTMENT of Public Works and Highways personnel rush to finish container vans converted into quarantine facilities at the Navotas open area playground, to boost the Covid-19 response. The DPWH is now constructing 23 additional quarantine facilities in the National Capital Region this month as part of the We Heal As One PH program of the government. ROY DOMINGO

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By Cai U. Ordinario

@caiordinario

CONOMISTS believe the President's economic team is being overly optimistic if it expects the economy to shrink only by an average 5.5 percent this year, especially with the double-digit contraction in the second quarter. On Thursday, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) disclosed that the economy contracted 16.5 percent in the second quarter of the year. This is a new historic low for

PESO EXCHANGE RATES n

the country. With this, Acting Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua said the inter-agency Development Budget Coord inat ion Committee

(DBCC) revised full-year targets to a contraction of 5.5 percent from the initial estimate of a contraction of 2 to 3.4 percent this year. “It [the target] doesn’t look doable, especially with the lack of control over the pandemic,” former Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Romulo L. Neri. “Karl Chua came out with a good plan [but] they seem to have backed off.” In order to attain this growth, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) estimates that the country needs to post an average contraction of 2.2 percent in the second half of

the year. The pandemic caused the country’s first semester growth to contract 9 percent. Neri said this could be possible if the plan of Chua were followed. He said that the country’s Acting Chief Economist unveiled the plan last May 12. This was composed of a four-pillar strategy which aimed to devote P1.49 trillion or 7.8 percent of GDP on efforts to arrest the ill effects of the pandemic. “[Currently there is] no coherent policy to save our people and our economy,” Neri said. “Hopefully, it will improve.”

ESPITE the economy officially falling into recession and the likelihood that it would be recording its worst decline in more than three decades, the government is still sticking to its plan to roll out as much as P180 billion in stimulus package this year. Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III insisted on Thursday that the country’s stimulus package must be “affordable,”especially since the Covid-19 virus may not be defeated by the end of this year. He also said he hopes that the Bayanihan To Recover As One Act (Bayanihan II) would finally be passed by next week. “As they say, we need to keep our powder dry for next year as well,” Dominguez said in a virtual press conference with the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC). Of the P180 billion, Dominguez said P140 billion will be spent for the stimulus package while the remaining P40 billion will account for the expected forgone revenues from the 5-percent immediate reduction in the corporate income tax rate from the 30 percent to 25 percent under the proposed Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises or CREATE bill. “Now this number is arrived at to keep our fiscal deficit in a manageable zone,” he said. This, as the DBCC also revised upward its deficit targets over the medium term for 2020 until 2022 on the back of expected lower revenues and higher disbursements amid the

Covid-19 pandemic. A budget deficit occurs when expenditures exceed revenues. From only 8.4 percent of GDP this year, the DBCC’s new deficit target was hiked to 9.6 percent of GDP. Deficit targets were also revised upward to 8.5 percent in 2021 and 7.2 percent in 2022 from earlier projections of 6.6 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Borrowing program

DOMINGUEZ also told reporters they expect to borrow roughly P3 trillion next year, which he said would be the same amount this year. The country’s finance chief said, however, they see the borrowing program to be reduced to P2.3 trillion by 2022. He also believes additional borrowings as well as state tax revenues would be sufficient to support the proposed P4.5-trillion national budget for next year. For July, Dominguez said both Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and the Bureau of Customs (BOC) exceeded their respective collection goals. Based on preliminary data, Dominguez said BIR’s revenue take for the month reached P126.72 billion, up by 2.08 percent from its revised target of P124.14 billion. On the other hand, BOC surpassed its goal by 5.03 percent when it collected P50.07 billion against its target of P47.67 billion. This, he said, signals rising economic activity with the gradual reopening of the economy.

Bernadette D. Nicolas

See “Recession,” A2

US 49.0540 n JAPAN 0.4646 n UK 64.3588 n HK 6.3294 n CHINA 7.0734 n SINGAPORE 35.8346 n AUSTRALIA 35.2747 n EU 58.2173 n SAUDI ARABIA 13.0835

Source: BSP (6 August 2020)


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BusinessMirror August 07, 2020 by BusinessMirror - Issuu