BusinessMirror November 11, 2020

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PHL Internet economy to grow 6% to $7.5B–report By Elijah Felice Rosales

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HE Philippine Internet economy is projected to expand 6 percent this year to reach $7.5 billion in value, as the country grew its number of online users, especially in rural areas, at the heat of the Covid-19 lockdown. Based on the e-Conomy SEA Report 2020, the Philippines is seen to enlarge its e-commerce market by 6 percent to $7.5 billion, from $7.1 billion last year. As such, the country is poised to reach its forecast of breaching $28 billion by 2025. However, when compared with its Southeast Asian rivals, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, the Philippine e-commerce growth during the Covid-19 pandemic is too little, too slow. The report indicated Vietnam’s Internet economy is estimated to

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jump 16 percent this year to $14 billion, from $12 billion last year. On the other hand, Indonesia is projected to increase the value of its online market by 11 percent to $44 billion, from $40 billion. Singapore is the lone economy in the region penciled to witness a decline in its e-commerce, by 24 percent—to $9 billion, from $12 billion—on the cancellation of travels booked online. The report also showed the Philippines is one of three Southeast Asian countries that saw a rise in digital consumers from the rural areas. Majority of new e-commerce users in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines came from non-metro locations. Broken down, 54 percent of new digital users in the Philippines were traced in the provinces, while the remaining 46 percent live in the urban areas. Further, the Philippines, as well as

Thailand, registered the most number of digital consumers who said they will keep on using online services even in the pandemic aftermath at 95 percent. The region painted a rosy picture for sellers in e-commerce platforms, as nine in 10 new digital consumers in the region said buying online is the way forward in the new normal. Proving the shift to online is real, the report highlighted the average time spent online per day among Southeast Asians increased to 4.7 hours during the lockdown, from 3.7 hours prior, and steadied at 4.2 hours when the movement restrictions were lifted. According to the report, nearly half of respondents said they plan to keep accomplishing their transactions online to avoid exposure to the virus. If there’s one thing that may force

them to return to buying in physical stores, it’s the issues with delivery that come along from ordering goods and services online. “Consumers and SMEs [small and medium enterprises] have adopted digital financial services like never before,” the report read. The report concluded behavioral changes made in the pandemic are here to stay. Likewise, it argued the shift to digital during Covid-19 lockdowns will boost adoption of online platforms by consumers, as well as penetration into digital sites by firms. The e-Conomy SEA Report is an annual study conducted by Google, Temasek and Bain & Co. to present the developments and project the growth of e-commerce in Southeast Asia, mainly, in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

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Wednesday, November 11, 2020 Vol. 16 No. 33

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SLOWER RECOVERY SEEN BSP not likely to rush back to easing mode after Q3 data

By Cai U. Ordinario & Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz

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HE recovery of the Philippine economy may take longer than earlier anticipated as consumption spending remained subdued, local economists said following the release of third-quarter National Income Accounts (NIA).

On Tuesday, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) disclosed that GDP contracted 11.5 percent in the third quarter. With this, GDP in the last three quarters contracted an average of 10 percent. Based on PSA data, even rich Filipinos or those who have the means are holding on to their cash as indicated by the steep decline in spending for valuables, which include heirloom jewelry, antiques, and other similar luxury items. “For sure, the country will bounce back with positive growth figures next year, but that would only be a base effect,” Foundation for Economic Freedom President Calixto V. Chikiamco told the Business­Mirror. “The economy has contracted so much due to the lockdown and restrictions that any opening up will result in positive growth rates. However, it may take three to four years before the country can get to the same GDP per capita it was before the pandemic,” he added.

By Bianca Cuaresma

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UNDERSECRETARY Ruth B. Castelo, head of the Department of Trade and Industry Consumer Protection Group, checks grocery items in Cubao, Quezon City, on Tuesday. The DTI inspection was meant to ensure that prices of basic commodities remain stable, even as government statisticians reported that continuing weak demand had resulted in disappointing growth data for the third quarter. NONOY LACZA

ASSET MANAGERS TO INCREASE INVESTMENTS IN PHL By Tyrone Jasper C. Piad

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ANY asset managers are expected to increase their investments in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) markets, including the Philippines, in the next three years, according to a survey by Standard Chartered Bank. The London-based financial services firm, in a statement on Tuesday, said that a significant 39 percent of the existing investors in the region are looking to put up more investments. “The Asean region scores very favorably within the research when it comes to data points like future investment focus and expected increases in investment volumes,” Standard Chartered said. The bank added that the Philippines, along with Malaysia and Thailand, are proving

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PESO EXCHANGE RATES n US 48.1340

to be a standout in the region as they attract “high-growth firms” for investments. According to the bank’s study, 33 percent of the “high-growth firms” and 26 percent of the “low-growth firms” are interested in the Philippines. The former refers to asset managers with asset under management (AUM) growth of more than 5 percent in the past three years, while the latter recorded less than 5 percent in the same period. On the other hand, Thailand and Malaysia are attracting 45 percent and 43 percent of the high-growth firms, respectively. “Emerging Asean, and emerging economies generally, offer investors a unique opportunity: strong returns combined with the chance to have a significant, positive impact. Now is the time to seize it,” Standard Chartered Philippines CEO Lynette V. Ortiz said.

Still, the British bank noted that the emerging Asean markets, which include the Philippines, are not getting enough investments to meet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The research revealed that only 22 percent of the world’s biggest asset managers’ investments are located in Asia. Majority or 64 percent are invested in developed markets in Europe and North America. The remaining portion is scattered in the Middle East, Africa, South America and Australia/Oceania. According to the bank, the risk in emerging markets was deemed a major deterrent for investments. “More than two-thirds of investors believe emerging markets are high-risk, compared to 42 percent who believe the same for developed markets,” the research explained.

To boost SDG investments, respondents said the following are needed: regulatory changes, favorable tax treatment, evidence of higher returns, better data for measuring impact and increased demand from retail investors. “Much progress has been made in recent years to realize the SDGs, but this study makes clear the need to move faster,” said Simon Copper, the London-based bank’s CEO for corporate, commercial and institutional banking. “A seismic, unprecedented surge in private-sector investment—alongside public investment and commitments—will be required to bridge the gap and hit the 2030 SDG targets.” Standard Chartered conducted the survey between July and August of this year among the world’s top 300 investment companies. These firms have combined AUM of $50 trillion.

HE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to continue its “prudent pause” exercise in its monetary policy, despite the dismal performance of the local economy in the third quarter of the year, local economists said. BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno, however, is expected to call for higher spending to spur economic activity. The Philippines contracted 11.5 percent in the third quarter of the year, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) announced on Tuesday. While this was a recovery from the 16.9-percent slump in the second quarter, market players expected a more muted decline during the quarter as quarantine restrictions were mostly eased in July to September. According to Unionbank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion, despite the slowdown, the BSP will not rush to ease rates in its next meeting, similar to what Diokno did in the early months of the pandemic. “If you look at the fundamentals of the GDP [gross domestic product] numbers, construction and government spending were laggards because of the lockdowns in NCR [National Capital Region] in early August and the one in Cebu, and it is undeniable that thirdquarter GDP growth was an improvement from the second quarter print,” Asuncion said. “It also underscores [the] role government has in supporting the economy and growth of the macroeconomy in general especially in times of crisis. On initial evaluation Continued on A2

n JAPAN 0.4568 n UK 63.3780 n HK 6.2090 n CHINA 7.2622 n SINGAPORE 35.7289 n AUSTRALIA 35.0656 n EU 56.8751 n SAUDI ARABIA 12.8344

Source: BSP (November 10, 2020)


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