BusinessDay 21 Dec 2018

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Oil price slide, empty ECA signpost tough 2019 I N

MARKETS

CBN pushes yields higher to maintain FX stability, lower inflation expectations

DIPO OLADEHINDE, Lagos, & OWEDE AGBAJILEKE, Abuja

igeria’s excess crude oil account (ECA), the only buffer for the country against oil revenue volatility, fell seventy-six percent to just above $600 million in three weeks is causing consternation across the land but it could be a taste of what to expect next year as oil price continues to collapse unstoppably. Oil prices plunged another four per cent Thursday taking prices below the level all but one OPEC country needs to square their 2019 budgets and avoid the risk of economic dislocation and social unrest. “2019 will be very challenging no doubt,” Omotola Abimbola research analyst at Ecobank told BusinessDay. “It’s a major cause for concern for Nigeria’s economy.” For the first time since September 2017 Brent price hit $55 a barrel on Thursday, only uberwealthy and sparsely populated Kuwait will be able to make ends meets next year, according to IMF estimates. OPEC heavily oil dependent countries like Nigeria along with giants Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran need much higher prices.

Brent hits $55, below 2019 budget benchmark of $60 ECA depletion: PDP accuses Buhari, APC of fraud

Qatar, which is leaving the cartel on January 1, would be able to break-even at just $44 a barrel. Libya and Algeria need prices around $100 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia, which announced its 2019 budget this week, is betting on higher oil revenues to finance a third consecutive year of fiscal loosening.

Jason Tuvey, analyst at Capital Economics, a London-based consultancy, said the Saudi budget “appears to be premised Continues on page 34

L-R: Kobby BentsiEnchill, executive director/head, debt capital markets, Stanbic IBTC Capital Limited; Emeka Emuwa, managing director/ CEO, Union Bank of Nigeria plc, and Bola Onadele. Koko, managing director/ CEO, FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange, during the presentation of the Bond Listing Certificate to the Issuer at the Listing Ceremony for the Union Bank of Nigeria plc Bonds at Exchange Place, in Lagos.

HOPE MOSES-ASHIKE & BUNMI BAILEY n a bid to ensure that there is not too much naira flowing around the economy, to curb inflation and demand for dollars, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is forcing banks to buy stabilisation securities and other short term instruments. This has seen a spike in yields on these short term financial assets, higher than what is obtainable in key markets in Africa. As at the end of November, average yields on 3-month Nigeria treasury bills were as high as 13.5 percent, which was higher than 8.83 percent on similar tenure bills in Kenya and 8.1 percent in South Africa. This means that it is more expensive for the Nigerian government to borrow than the Continues on page 34

Inside

Carlyle makes surprise $40m investment in Wakanow P. 2 MTN launches ASAP to curb drug addiction P. 35


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BusinessDay 21 Dec 2018 by BusinessDay - Issuu