SEASON'S GREETINGS

Economic Outlook Thru'95

In a new analysis of short- and long-term economic prospects, "Ifte U.S. Economy: Outlook through 1995," Predicasts forecasts that the late 1980s and 1990s will be "a period of unprecedented prosperity" compared with the negligible growth experienced since 1973.

Theycite moderating inflation and interest rates, improved productivity, and a new wave oftechnological innovation as factors which will drive real economic growth up 3.490 annually between 1985 and 1995.

Predicasts says the U.S. is irreversibly evolving into a knowledgeintensive economy as opposed to a capital-intensive or resourceintensive society. Although this transformation will be painful for the "sunset" industries (among them, motor vehicles, iron and steel, and leather), excellent opportunities are at hand for "sunrise" industries such as robotics, biochemistry, and information processing.

Due to the continued growth of the labor pool i.esulting from the 1950s high birth rate, they do not foresee a decline in unemployment until the late 1980s.

Predicasts anticipates a decline in the cost of capital funds and credit which will lower real (non-inflated) interest rates from the current abnormally high 690 to l-2v/o by 1995.

Replacement will account for the balance of durable goods demand, with consumers favoring luxury items which are more householdoriented, conservative and classic in taste and styling.

Services will remain the fastest growing segment of consumer spending.

Housing Expansion Due

Expansion of the housing market in 1983 will pave the way for construction totaling $167.5 billion next year, l2t/o more than this year's anticipated level of $140.1 billion.

George A. Christie, a leading economist, expects that residential construction will reach $80.1 billion, 3890 above this year's $58 billion.

"Housing, by long tradition a mixture of private enterprise and public subsidy, will be lacking much of its former federal backing," the McGraw-Hill economist explained.

For next year's housing market, he sees a rate close to 1.325 million units with mortgage rates between 15-160/o by this year's end and by the end of 1983 down to 1390. He expects the strongest gain in condominiums and one-family houses with apartment construction gaining only by half as much as the other components.

Lumber lmport Duty Sought

If charges filed with the Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission by the U.S. Coalition for Fair Canadian Lumber Irnports are upheld, a tentative duty on Canadian lumber will be imposed on March 7, 1983, and a final determination reached by July 7, 1983.

The coalition charged that "governments in Canada seriously injure U.S. industry by unfairly subsidizing lumber exports to the United States." In asking for a duty to be imposed on Canadian softwood entering this country, they also charged injury to the U.S. shingle and shake and fence manufacturing industries.

Effective Holiday Promotion

A Western retailer has attracted wood-loving customers during the holidays by holding a Christmas gift fair, which features handcrafted woodworkings sold by the area's craftsmen directly to the public.

Ganahl Lumber Co., Anaheim, Ca., is holding its third annual Christmas Gift Faire this month in its huge indoor lumber warehouse. With stacks ofcedar, fir, pine and redwood providing the backdrop, more than 75 craftsmen display their woodworkings that include old-fashioned wooden toys and puzzles, jewelry, turned bowls, various household items and sculpture.

Christmas music, a Christmas tree, refreshments and Santa Claus himself add to the festive atmosphere. The fair is held over a weekend, two weeks before Christmas. Every item displayed and sold must be handcrafted from wood.

Colorado Wood Use Awards

Two Colorado homes, a Victorian in Littleton and a remodel in Pinewood Springs, an office building in Greenwood Village, and a patio

The Merchant Magazine home project in Boulder have been cited for architectural excellence in the use ofwood products in the 1982 W.O.O.D., Inc. Architectural Awards Program.

Each year since 1967, W.O.O.D., Inc., a Colorado organization of retail and wholesale lumber firms which promotes the use of forest products in construction, has recognized architects for their outstanding use of wood in their designs. More than 70 architects entered this year's competition and each project was judged on site by a committee of lumber industrv leaders.

Galifornia Wholesale

A Division of Coastal Lumber Company pnesents r'Nothing But Tha Beatrr in

Appalachian, Northennr and Southern Hardwoods

Sycamorc Bagswood

Tupclo Ghcrry

Hackbcrry Hickony

Gdtonwood Hard I8oft

Maple

Aso lmported Handwoods Gum and Oak veneens and Oak Plywood cut-to-size Shipmerns by Direct Carload, Direct from our own Hardwood Mills

Truck & Tr:Lr. fnom our Los Angeles Distribution Yard

Our office is loented at: 999 N. Sepulveda Evd., Suite 314 El Segundo, Ca. 90245 r [213] 64G2548

Fluss Swift Donna Hammond Mike Kelly