No giant step in store

By John M. Martin Executive Vice President National Lumber & Building Material Dealers Association

im-provement in the sales of building materials has popped upin afewplacesduring recent days but the real change will come with the good weather of 1983. Let's look at a few things to keep in mind. I November 2 had little effect on President Reagan's game plan, although the course will be tougher, '83 housing starts will be 1.3 million and absolutely will not mushroom to 2 million in '84 or '85 as someone suggested recently. The soapbox must be pulled out from under both the Republicans and Democrats on the issue of Social Security.

* Increased unemployment was an expected occurrence prior to any economlc recovery. Neither side should claim victorv in the results on Election Day. Houjing will see no gain or loss as a result of new faces in Congress. Reagan is even more determined to diminish the role of government, even though the battles will be harder, with more injuries inflicted for the combatants on both sides.

Story at a Glance

Housing will neither gain nor lose from recenl changes in Congress .. local condltions will determine a dealer's busl. ness in '83. continued hlgh unemployment happy days ahead for some.

There is no magic in picking 1.3 million starts for '83. It is just sort of in the middle, or an average of numbers bandied about by economists, associations, corporations and a home builder I asked. Any number used does not tell a building material dealer what business will be like at home. At best, the housing start number is a barometer of the condition of housing nationwide. The recent irritating, misleading prediction of 2 million starts for either 1984 or '85 is a disservice to the industry. The perfect turnaround for this industry would not mean 2 million starts. With current capacity, major product manufacturers can only supply material for 1.7 million. People are always saying the nation needs 2 million starts a year to supply demand, but how many such years have we had in the last decade or so? One? Increase should be gradual and sustained.

The campaign of '82 brought out the worst in both major parties. Republicans were guilty of hypocrisy and the Democrats were guilty of deception on the issue of Social Security. Every effort should be made by both parties to avoid fear tactics, encourage candor, and open-

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Housing Recovery in 1983

New housing production next year will most likely register sharper gains from the current recession than had previously been anticipated.

Projecting further declines in interest rates under the Federal Reserve Board's new approach to monetary policy, panelists at the National Association of Home Builders' Residential Forecast Conference predicted that total housing starts in 1983 would range from 1.3 to 1.5 million units.

The economists were virtually unanimous in their belief that 1983 would bring an end to the longest and most severe postwar housing recession, although they did caution that next year would not push the industry back to the lofty production levels of the late 1970s, when annual starts exceeded 2 million.

What Happened to White?

Taupe, mauve, peach and seafoam are seen as predominant colors in paint for this year's home fix-ups. With decorators predicting a return to the romantic and elegant, other colors destined for popularity are lilac, dusty blue and casaba (a yellow-white).

Win In Overtime

Having trouble scoring because a secretary is screening your calls to a prospective customer? Try abtzz after 5 p.m. when the secretaries have left and the big shot might be around to answer the phone himself. ll|0

Wwpa Forecast

(Continued from page 13) few pundits envision a domestic demand situation like we've seen in the past-especially in the homebuilding sector. what that means is that the Western lumber industry must work harder and smarter to keep those markets we enjoy today. And we must work to recapture those that have been lost through the years. Perhaps we'll even exit this current depression even stronger. of government funds to bring down the unemployment rate. The result will be increased interest rates and high inflation. The circle will have closed and we will be back where we were just a short time ago. The suffering will have been in vain.

To me, 1983 marks the beginning of "happy days. " Our elected leadership must respond to these issues with courage and conviction. I personally think they will.

Beginning Recovery

(Continued from page 17) make the government a formidable competitor for available credit.

Nlbmda

(Continued from page 30) ly discuss the alternatives.

No one likes high unemployment. Unfortunately, it seems unemployment was a natural result in the path of economic recovery.

High unemployment is a tough bite to swallow, especially if your own job was affected. We face the danger now of the quick Congressional fix, the uncontrolled infusion

Repair and remodeling has been a very important market during the homebuilding slump, and we expect that to continue, with about a three percent increase in total volume in 1983.

At Simpson, we will continue to emphasize cost control, improved productivity and response to the demand of the market. The last is especially important. We expect to be highly competitive by continuing our tradition of quality and service. We also are making a greater effort to work with our customers as partners, helping them promote and sell our products on the spot.

The key point for all of us is that we seem to have at long last reached the bottom and begun a slow and modest recovery. But that recovery will lead us to a much more modest housing market than we have known in the past. The challenge is to adapt our thinking and our management skills to profitably serving a different, highly competitive market.

Cra Promotions

(Continued from page 17)

One of our primary concerns has always been to provide redwood retailers with the finest sales tools in the building materials industry.

We will continue to provide the highest quality advertising, publicity, literature and promotion for redwood during good times and bad.

If you are selling redwood, you're not out there selling it alone. There's a group of professionals working daily to tell your customers about redwood's beauty, performance and uses. Redwood has a pre-sold status.

OUTG0ING president (1) G.T. Frost (right) congratulates incoming pres. Ed Gavotto. (2) Don Gunvalson, Lumber 1, presents his products. (3) Ken Gochenour, Maple Brothers. (4) Warren Hoflman, personnel director, Dixieline Lumber Co. (5) Frank Youngman, distribution center mgr

Georgia-Pacific. (6) Bert Hernandez, Chuck Baldridge, Jim Frost, Frost Hardwood Lumber Co. (7) Clill Crandal, American Mill & Manufacturing (standing), Arl Crouthamel, Boise Cascade, a club past pres. (8) Pat Flanagan and Don Adams.

San Diego Products Night

San Diego Hoo-Hoo Club combined Products Night and installation of officers with Ed Gavotto, American Mill & Manufacturing, receiving the gavel from outgoing president G.T. Frost, Frost Hardwood Lumber Co.

Others on the board are Bud Baker, Baker Hardwood; Bruce Frost, Frost Hardwood Lumber Co.; Mark Olson, La Mesa Lumber;Warren Hoffman, Dixieline Lumber Co. ; Jim Gilchriest, H.G. Smith; Bryon King, Baker Hardwood; Don Gunvalson, Companies of Lumber l; Wayne Raney, Boise Cascade.

More than 60 persons viewed the product display. Sponsors included American Mill & Manufacturing, Baker Hardwood, Boise Cascade Corp., T.M. Cobb Co., Dixieline Lumber Co., Frost Hardwood Lumber Co., Georgia-Pacific Corp., Helix Wholesale Co., Companies of Lumber l, Maple Brothers, Inc., Mouldings, Ransom Lumber Sales, and H.G. Smith Lumber Co.

G-P Names New Chief Officer

T. Marshall Hahn Jr., president, has been elected chief operating officer of Georgia-Pacific Corp., Atlanta, Ga., and will, upon the recommendation of Robert E. Flowerree, chairman and chief executive officer, become president and chief executive officer in May 1983 when Flowerree retires from the later position, continuing as chairman.

Hahn, a director since 1973 and president since 1976, was president of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University for l3 years before joining G-P.