A RR Outlook

T HE Union Pacific Railroad sees I a generally favorable year for 1979, "mainly because of our diversification as a transportation Ieader," according to John C. Kenefick, president.

"We expect that the railroad will continue its steady growth pattern even if the overall economic growth rate slows to three percent or less, as some economists predict.

"Union Paci[ic continues to break records in tonnage with growth spread over many commodities including coal, chemicals and agricultural products.

A healthy pattern is also obvious in container traffic."

The crest of the current inflation problem will probably take place early in the year at 120/o (CPI rate) while unemployment will increase as the year progresses and end up at 7o/o.

Real growth will average about 2t/20/o while the GNP deflator (overall inflation rate) will increase almost 8%. A mild recession-that is. two quarters of negative real growth, may occur in the middle of the year. Consumer confidence will be reduced so their aggregate rate of spending will slow.

In my opinion builders and suppliers should avoid being unduly negative and use this necessary time of transition to improve internal operations so as to benefit over the long haul. Just possibly the ratchet effect of inflation will finallv be reversed in 1979.

For more forecasts

See page 30

Lumber Forecast

(Continued from page l5) tificates backed by the secondary mortgage market through the government agencies.

The housing boom of 1972 and 1973 was overheated by government subsidy programs and the 235-236 programs, resulting in 7006 multi-housing and only 3001r singlefamily housing, the exact reverse of 1978. We've had virtually no subsidy programs to be withdrawn, as was done in 1974.

The final blow that created a great downturn following 1973 was impact of the Arab oil embargo, which created a serious recession.

Combine these differences and it becomes more evident why the coming year will continue to have markets of good opportunity. And the opportunities for good merchandisers will continue virtually unabated.

NUDOR lll is designed to meet the need for a wood door that easily replaces old dilapidated aluminum patio doors. lt exceeds present and future insulation requirements with its s/q inch TRIPLE paned tempered safety glass. NUDOR lll is the product of consumer demand for quality, long term value.

WEATHER PROOFING

Snug interlocks and double rows of weatherstripping

SELECTED WOODS

Chemically treated to protect against moisture and insect damage

TRIPLE PANE GLASS

Three-quarter inch tempered insulated safety glass for maximum energy savings

DESIGNER HANDLES

Cherry wood grip and secure latch with optional keyed cylinder lock

ADJUSTABLE ROLLERS

Guaranteed easy operation on dual tandem rollers

THERMAL BARRIER

Oak sill nosing defends against moisture damage to inside floors.