DISTRIBUTOR'S FORECAST

(Continued from page 9) than recorded during the '60s and '70s. As a result, it's very possible that housing starts may average a little more than 2.0 million during the next decade compared to 1.7 million during the past l0 years. I think that we're very fortunate to be involved in an industry where the 1980s could really be golden years for all of us.

(2) Production capacity. In a general way, the capacity of the building materials industry has been "running all-out" during 1978. Several major products, such as gypsum, insulation, and cement, are still in very short supply. With the exception of fiberglass, little new capacity has been added to the industry. As a result, even if demand softens a bit in '79. this probably won't immediately be reflected in reduced production. It's my guess that the level of starts will keep most plants running at a respectable capacity level.

(3) Remodeling and commercial construction. The repair and remodeling market is not expected to experience any slowdown in the foreseeable future. Expenditures in this area have risen consistently during recent decades and now account for a significant proportion of sales and earnings o[many building related companies. These expenditures have expanded at an average rate of about l0-1206 during the past decade. It is estimated that they will expand between l0150ft in '79, as compared to '78. Building material retailers, and distributors with a strong dealer policy, are the direct beneficiaries of this business.

In addition, both commercial and industrial construction are picking up momentum. Both gained ground in '78, vs. '77, with more increases forecast for both in '79.

(4) Conclusion. It's alwaYs difficult to predict the future, because the picture is always hazY and confused. It's only when we look backthat the picture is crystal clear.

It's probably a safe bet, however, to predict that housing starts in '79 will have a slight down-shift from '78. On the other hand, there will probably be some otf-setting gain in other portions of the industrY. In addition. it's a safe bet to estimate that the total Gross National Product in 1979 will probably be up about 3ol, over '78. In view of this fact, our own company will be budgeting a nice little increase in both sales and profits for next year. Then we're going to work like the devil to try to make them happen.

Particleboard

(Continued from page I 1 ) that's as much a fault of the dealer as it is of the producer. There needs to be a sreater understanding of the product and the uses to which it can be put. We know, for example, that some dealers have not updated their knowledge of the board in a long time. They still believe it to be the