NATIONAL OUTLOOK

(Continued from page I I ) drop back to or below a 70h pace during 1979. down from a consumer price rise of about 9'Xr during 1978. With such improvement on the price front. real growth in the neighborhood of 30ft should be attainable.

Even this relatively optimistic scenario implies a housing cycle, but only a shallow one.

Issuance of money market certificates by thrift institutions gave homebuilding a reprieve from the traditional drying up of mortgage money as short-term interest rates moved up in 1978. By early November, however, the allowed rate on six-month certificates had reached 9.6501t. With money so costly, it will hardly be attractive for thrifts in the 23 states with usury ceilings on mortgages of lOVr or less to continue to issue certificates to finance lending on real estate.