A Distributor's Forecast

by Robert D. Peterson President Palmer G. Lewis Co. Auburn. Wa.

J li:1,, i3

misunderstandingwe definitely expect 1979 to be another good year for dis-tributors.

While we do not expect business to be as strong in '79 as it has been during the past three years, PGL Company will definitely be budgeting for an increase in both sales and profits. Here's why.

(1) Housing. Housing starts peaked at about 2.4 million in'72. Then they fellsteadily to just under 1.0 million at the beginning of '75. They turned around at that point and climbed steadily for the next 3 years, coming in just over the 2.0 million level in '77. lt appears that '78 starts will probably come in around 1.9 millionwith a lot of estimates hitting around 1.7 million for'79. but they may not be down as much as some people estimate.

Several years back, everybody was talking about the post-war baby boom. Right now, this baby boom is sweeping through the housing industry. I recently read, for example, where households headed by the 25-34 age group will increase by 430/o in the western part of the United States between 1970-1985. Another study indicated that this favorable demographic trend for housing would pick up even more momentum in the next 5-10 years

(Please turn to page 107)

Story at a Glance

Housing starts down slightly.. . some off-setting gains in other por- tions of the industry. .GNP up 37o over this year. another good year for distributors.