'77 will be Better, But Hopefully not Too Good

EDY ,qLr inlJd i cations.

1977 should be a pretty good year for the forest products industry. Wood products demand in almost every important market should improve next year over 1976 figures.

Our organization foresees a 1.6 million conventional housing start year for 1977 , and a mobile home unit year of approximately 300,000 units. Other prognosticators are estimating even higher figures, and we must admit that our 1976 forecast was on the conservative side.

The remodeling market was very strong in 1976,and we see a continuation of even more activity in this area in the coming year.

At the same time, our export of wood products to overseas outlets should continue on an uptick.

Industrial wood markets should also be slightly better in 1977. Therc will likely be a boost in commercial and industrial construction, and demand at the factory level for wood will remain strong.

Conversely, the increase in housing starts should be in the apartment sector rather than single-family. This translates into less footage per unit versus a lO% increase in starts. In our view, single-family starts will approximate the I million level next year.

The "experts" predict that the inflationary spiral of the cost of housing will moderate somewhat in 1977. Whether they are correct or not, a proper evaluation of much publicized statistics diminishes this factor considerably. If the high cost of singlefamily homes has "priced 85% of the home buyers out of the market", just what group of home buyers are we talking about? Certainly not all those present owners of existing homes. Nor those people who are opting for

H. M. Niebling, western manager North American Wholesale Lumber Association

the mobile home unit.

Last year, we forecast the possibility of disintermediation of mortgage money, and it didn't occur. The fact that the federal deficits remain high along with the recent report of many corporations underpaying their current taxes due to our tax laws could mean some money needs by mid-year (Please turn to page26)

Story at a Glance

Convention housing starts at 1.6 million, mobile homes, 300,000 units remodeling to continue strong, as will export and industrial wood markets government involvement in housing may be a factor by '78.