National Dealer Outlook

by Richard D. Snyder CAE Executive Vice President National Lumber & Building Material Dealers Assn.

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stal ball for 1977 brings into focus substantial progress and growth for the industry, much more predictable than that which was visible as we moved into 1976. The facts speak for themselves

(a) Sales of existing (old) homes, which put a substantial dent in our large housing inventory, neared a peak rate of an estimated 3.7 million units in 197 6.

(b) New home starts are at their highest level since February of 1974, with many predicting an even higher level over the next l2-18 months.

(c) Issuance of building permits is the highest seen since March of 1974.

Record dollars are flowing into insured savings and loan associations, topping levels set in 1972.

The average effective interest rate is down from the exorbiIant 12% to between 8-ll2% to 9%, with most recent data indicating a continuation of the trend in 1977.

Sales from the do-it-yourself market will be up almost 2O% over 1975 and, as we move into 1977, we see a $30 billion dollar home improvement business.

All barometers indicate souncl, continued growth in the industry, at least for the next l2-18 months. However, in spite of these positive signs, we must also be aware of some other factors that could have an influence on business and any continued resurgence of the economy and the housing market.

(a) A new Congress and the uncertainty of the political environment. Hard choices will have to be made with respect to a number of economic and social issues, such as inflation, re(Please turn to page46 )

Story at a Glance

Despite strong indications of sound, continued growth in next 12-18 months, problem areas exist in the uncertainty of a new President and Congress, slow economic growth, capital demand, unemployment, and increasing government regulations.

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