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Goldman Sachs Case Competition
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Active Gear to acquire Mercury Athletic Footwear
Ice Point Solutions Darren Tan Darryl Tan Fangfei Li Will Wolf
Encompassing both Active Gear and Mercury Athletic Footwear
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Active management of inventory and production lead times
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Individuals would compete to anticipate and exploit fashion trends Casual Segment: Style, price, and general quality
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Low growth, but with fairly stable profit margins
Inventory Management
Athletic Segment: Brand Image, specialized engineering for performance, price
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Mature, but highly competitive industry
Competition
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General Information
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Industry Overview
8-10 months to complete a new design, associated samples, and production specifications 4-6 months were required for manufacturing start-up before new orders could be filled
Retailers
Few firms sold through company-retail stores Majority sold through department stores, independent specialty retailers, sporting goods stores, boutiques and wholesalers Little success for firms with ecommerce
Ice Point Solutions
Company Overviews Mercury Athletic Footwear
an ag em en t
Active Gear Demographics
Demographics
Broad and mainstream market Originally affluent urban and suburban family members ages 25 to 45 Image that is prosperous, active, and fashion-conscious
15 to 25 year old; active interest in extreme sports Image that is iconoclastic and nonconformist People in the global youth culture of alternative music, TV, and clothing
Products
Products
Distribution
The companies are fundamentally different.
Revenues
$470.3 million in revenue for 2006 $60.4 million in operating income for 2006 42% from athletic footwear 58% from casual footwear
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Casual footwear: 5,700 department, specialty, and general retail stores via a network of wholesalers and independent distributors Athletic footwear: Independent sales representatives to a limited number of sporting good stores, pro shops, and specialty footwear retailers A small percentage of both were sold through Active Gear’s website
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Athletic shoes that have a classic image Casual shoes that have classic syling Small portfolio with longer lifecycles
Men’s athletic footwear: Inexpensive to produce with basic materials; loyal customers pay medium to high prices Men’s casual footwear: Promising designs, but delayed due to bad weather and strikes and cannibalization of products Women’s athletic footwear: High cost of building brand image and awareness Women’s casual footwear: Sales faltered after promotional support was reduced Distribution Retail, athletic, department, specialty stores, catalogs, and the Internet No geographic region accounted for more than 10% of the sales
Revenues $431.1 million in revenue for 2006 $58.1 million in EBITDA for 2006
Ice Point Solutions
Mercury Athletic Footwear’s Weaknesses
Active Gear’s Weaknesses •
Small Size
•
Small size of Active Gear creates a competitive disadvantage because of the recent consolidation of contract manufacturers Currently manufacturers favor firms who could offer longer production runs
Lack of Reliable Manufacturers
Mercury Athletic Footwear’s Men’s Casual sector was disrupted by bad weather and strikes
•
Poor Inventory Management
DSI 10 days longer than the industry average
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Big Box Retailers
61.1 Days compared to Active Gear’s 42.5 Days
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Decreasing Operating Margins
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Active Gear cannot really use discount retailers due to its brand I mage, but this hurts sales growth and the company only grew at a rate of 2.2% for the past 3 years
Tradeoff for increase in growth through discounted retailers
Larger Size
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Combination
Growth Rate
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•
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WACC Calculations Acquisition Rationale
Manufacturer Scrutiny
Inventory System Adoption
Better Operating Margins
Ice Point Solutions
Potential Sources of Value
Manufacturing and Distribution Synergies
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Synergies on the Supply Side Lead to a Reduction in Costs
Growth Potential
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• Economies of scale created in manufacturing due to larger post-merger size, can gain additional savings by providing longer production-runs to Chinese manufacturers • Economies of scope regarding distribution, increasing the distribution network ‘s size and resilience as well as reaching a larger target audience • Leverage experience of Mercury’s supply-chain managers throughout AGI to maintain effeciency
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Acquisition Risks
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• AGI gains exposure to growing yet historically unenterable discount retail space through Mercury’s product line without compromising core AGI brand • Mercury Athletic Footwear gains improved inventory management and efficiency, but retains autonomous status outside of merged production lines and logistics
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• Completely different products and market demographics may make the company images’ clash if combined and potentially difficult to manage • Mercury Athletic Footwear has lower EBITDA margins, and recently failed to launch their women’s casual lines • The athletic footware market is more prone to fashion cycles than the relatively unvolitile niche AGI primarily participates in
Ice Point Solutions
Assumptions for the Mercury Athletic Working Model Income Statement Projections Mean
2007
2008
-
15.40% -5.76% 12.72% -20.05%
44.20% -6.75% 14.31% -15.17%
29.80% -6.25% 13.51% -17.61%
15.00% 1.00% 12.00% 0.00%
12.00% 2.00% 11.00% 0.00%
13.46% 15.64% 9.50% 0.85%
12.11% 16.38% 10.76% -2.34%
14.34% 15.95% 10.28% -2.29%
13.30% 15.99% 10.18% -1.26%
13.30% 15.99% 10.18% -1.26%
13.30% 15.99% 10.18% 0.00%
0.08% 2.26%
0.09% 1.74% 2.23%
0.08% 2.50% 2.20%
0.08% 2.23%
1.77% 2.50% 6.93%
1.77% 2.50% 6.37%
2004
2005
2006
Mean
2007
3.58% 31.20 15.72% 2.29%
5.63% 39.32 19.74% 4.41%
2.48% 38.87 16.97% 2.36%
3.90% 36.47 17.48% 3.02%
0.87% 36.47 17.48% 3.02%
$1,031 $554 $5,657
$35,740 $34,605 $11,884
15.2 4.23%
16.4 6.69%
15.9 4.83%
15.8 5.25%
15.9 5.27%
15.9 5.27%
$1,635 $8,131
$13,795 $9,256
$11,654 $9,080
$9,028 $8,822
$11,654 $9,080
$11,654 $9,080
36.5
63.8
2011
8.00% 3.00% 7.00% 0.00%
5.00% 3.00% 5.00% 0.00%
13.30% 15.99% 10.18% 0.00%
13.30% 15.99% 10.18% 0.00%
13.30% 15.99% 10.18% 0.00%
1.77% 2.50% 6.36%
1.77% 2.50% 6.37%
1.77% 2.50% 6.35%
2009
2010
2011
0.86% 36.47 17.48% 3.02%
0.86% 36.47 17.48% 3.02%
0.86% 36.47 17.48% 3.02%
0.86% 36.47 17.48% 3.02%
PPE current = PPE previous year + CapEx - Depreciation $43,853 $26,875 $43,853 $43,853 $43,853 $43,051 $26,070 $43,051 $43,051 $43,051 $11,162 $9,568 $11,162 $11,162 $11,162
$43,853 $43,051 $11,162
$43,853 $43,051 $11,162
15.9 5.27%
15.9 5.27%
15.9 5.27%
$11,654 $9,080
$11,654 $9,080
$11,654 $9,080
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2008
Historical Cash Cycle Ratios Days Sales Inventory Days Sales Outstanding Oustanding
2010
10.00% 2.00% 9.00% 0.00%
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Assets Current Assets Cash (% of Revenue) A/R (Days Sales Outstanding) Inventory (% of Rev) Prepaid Expenses (% of Rev) Non-Current Assets Property, Plant and Equipment Trademarks & Other Intangibles Goodwill Other Assets Liabilities Current Liabilities A/P (Days Payable Outstanding) Accrued Expenses (% of Total OE*) Non-Current Liabilities Deferred Taxes Pension Obligation
2009
EBIT Segmented revenue projections: • MA: conservative decreasing growth rate • MC: approaching a long-term growth rate • WA: conservative decreasing growth rate • WC: at zero revenue growth and discontinued after 1 year
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2006
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2005
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Revenue Growth Men's Athletic Men's Casual Women's Athletic Women's Casual EBIT Margins Men's Athletic Men's Casual Women's Athletic Women's Casual Expenses as % of revenue Corporate Overhead Capital Expenditures Depreciation Expense Balance Sheet Projections
2004
Changes in Working Capital
Days Prepaid Outstanding
Days Payable Outstanding
Days Accrued Outstanding
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
11.0
15.9
17.3
$4,569
$2,648
$9,805
$8,687
$6,234
Segmented EBIT margins are held at constant % of segmented revenues (3-yr mean): • COGS, SG&A and D&A are highly correlated with sales • D&A is directly related to company’s capital spending which supports topline growth Corporate Overhead held at constant % of overall revenues
Balance Sheet Accounts
Current Assets • Cash at a lower % of revenues • A/R at constant DSO (3-yr mean) • Inventory at constant % of revenue (3-yr mean) • Prepaid expenses at constant % of revenue (3-yr mean) Non-current Assets • PP&E calculated based on PPE current • Other non-current accounts held at constant LTM value Current Liabilities • A/P at constant DPO (3-yr mean) • Accrued expenses at constant % of revenue Non-current Liabilities • Held at constant LTM value Working Capital • WC projections based on historical cash cycle ratios • Increase in WC is volatile but in line with company changes Projections are simplified, conservative and largely in line with historical revenues, expenses and cash cycles
Ice Point Solutions
Mercury Athletic DCF Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
11.18%
2.02%
423,837 8,487 47,005
427,333 8,659 53,036
11.13%
12.83%
9,587 56,592
9,781 62,817
% Margin
11.81%
12.85%
% Growth
9.24%
11.00%
4,569 11,983 18,802 21,238
2,648 12,226 21,214 26,729
Less: Operating Expenses (Consolidated) Less: Corporate Overhead Operating Income (EBIT) % Growth
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization Expense EBITDA
(-) Changes in working capital (-) Capital Expenditure (-) Taxes Unlevered Free Cash Flow WACC
10.60% 19,203
Sensitivity Analysis
7.18%
4.80%
465,110 9,422 57,605
498,535 10,098 61,686
522,522 10,583 64,612
8.61%
7.08%
4.74%
10,643 68,248
11,406 73,092
11,954 76,566
12.83%
12.82%
12.81%
8.65%
7.10%
4.75%
9,805 13,303 23,042 22,098
8,687 14,258 24,674 25,473
6,234 14,943 25,845 29,544
21,851
Long-Term Growth Rate Calculation
16,334
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2011
EBIT
$64,612
EBIT(1-t)
$38,767
Total Reinvestments
$9,223
Reinvestment Rate
23.79%
BV Equity (80% Capital)
$259,352
BV Debt (20% of Capital)
$64,838
Total Capital
$324,190
Return on Capital
11.96%
Long-Term Growth Rate
2.84%
Terminal Value Calculation 17,024
17,852 Long-Term Growth Rate
Long-Term Growth Rate
EV
0.84%
1.84%
2.84%
3.84%
4.84%
9.6%
309,935
340,092
379,178
431,846
506,667
10.1%
292,474
318,790
352,361
396,665
457,832
10.6%
276,816
299,935
329,015
366,706
417,496
11.1%
262,698
283,130
308,511
340,889
383,620
11.6%
249,905
268,059
290,360
318,413
354,771
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WACC
8.82%
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Discounted Cash Flows
2011 $597,717
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% Growth
2010 $570,319
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Revenues (Consolidated)
2009 $532,137
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2008 $489,028
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2007 $479,329
2.84%
Terminal Value
391,805
Discounted Terminal Value
263,752
Sum of Discounted Cash Flows
92,263
Current Enterprise Value
329,015
Ice Point Solutions
Merger Analysis – Free Cash Flows Combined Income Statement FY 2008E
Operating Expenses OpEx Synergies OpEx Synergies % Depreciation & Amortization Depreciation of PP&E Write-Up Amortization of New Intangibles EBITDA % margin
847,583 84,758 0 17,458 326 4,053 211,061 0
Operating Income % margin Interest Income / (Expense) Less: Forgone Interest on Cash Less: Interest Paid on New Debt Less: Principal repayment Pre-Tax Income Income Tax Provision
189,224 0 5,122 0 1,316 21,934 160,852 64,341 96,511
1,031,943 29,260 514,038 14,630 532,534
FY 2010E 1,080,371 29,260 538,212 14,630 556,788
FY2011E 1,118,225 29,260 557,099 14,630 575,755
859,763 85,976 0 17,813 326 4,053 219,636 0
906,991 90,699 0 18,840 326 4,053 230,280 0
949,957 94,996 0 19,771 326 4,053 240,039 0
983,476 98,348 0 20,490 326 4,053 247,726 0
197,444 0 5,122 0 1,316 21,934 169,071 67,629
207,062 0 5,122 0 1,316 21,934 178,689 71,476
215,889 0 5,122 0 1,316 21,934 187,516 75,007
222,856 0 5,122 0 1,316 21,934 194,484 77,793
101,443
107,213
112,510
116,690
se As FY 2007E
FY 2008E
189,224 113,535 21,837 24,276 15,184 95,911 95,911
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EBIT EBIT (1 - Tax Rate) Add: Depreciation and Amortization Less: Capitalization Expenditures Less: Increases in Net Working Capital Free Cash Flow Cumulative FCF
FY 2009E
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Combined Free Cash Flow Projections
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Net Income
978,793 29,260 487,502 14,630 505,921
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959,256 29,260 477,771 14,630 496,114
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FY 2007E Combined Revenue Revenue Synergies Cost of Goods Sold Revenue Synergy COGS Gross Profit
FY 2009E 197,444 118,466 22,192 24,771 5,118 110,769 206,681
FY 2010E 207,062 124,237 23,219 26,105 12,326 109,025 315,705
FY2011E 215,889 129,533 24,150 27,323 11,260 115,101 430,806
222,856 133,714 24,869 28,275 8,859 121,448 552,255
Ice Point Solutions
Merger Analysis – Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis: Operating synergies
Financing • Amount of cash required on to be on hand must cover 90 days of operations ($100M) • As not all operating expenses within a 90 day period can be assumed things like wages, inventory loss, utilities, etc. that can be readily or plausibly covered with cash, we benchmark our required operational cash to be half of this number. • As this number, $50M, stands very close to AGI's final cash on hand for 2006, $56M, we will finance this merger without any input of cash. case without further information, we will assume this coupon on all debt of all
Synergies
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coupon to a 15-year bond.
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maturities. To not make a highly implausible debt scenario, we will attached this
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• Cost of debt will be assumed off Lietke's estimate of 6%. As this is a self contained
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• No cannibalization of products upon merger. However, we also believe there to be no revenue synergies.
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• Revenue synergies: AGI can provide Mercury with a 40% increase in inventory
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efficiency. This equates to a roughly 6.7% increase in revenues (only for Mercury) due to synergies of Revenue.
• Substantial COGS synergies due to economies of scale, better bargaining positions,
increased specialization of infrastructure, and longer production runs benchmarked at 10%.
0% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium) 1% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium) 2% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium) 3% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium) 4% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium) 5% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium) 6% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium) 7% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium) 8% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium) 9% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium) 10% Cumulative FCF Residual Cash (10% premium) Residual Cash (30% premium)
45,056 45,056 19,481 16,542 50,142 50,142 24,567 21,627 55,227 55,227 29,652 26,713 60,313 60,313 34,738 31,798 65,398 65,398 39,823 36,884 70,484 70,484 44,909 41,969 75,569 75,569 49,994 47,055 80,655 80,655 55,079 52,140 85,740 85,740 60,165 57,226 90,826 90,826 65,250 62,311 95,911 95,911 70,336 67,397
59,183 104,240 33,608 75,725 64,342 114,484 38,767 85,969 69,501 124,728 43,925 96,213 74,659 134,972 49,084 106,457 79,818 145,216 54,242 116,702 84,976 155,460 59,401 126,946 90,135 165,704 64,559 137,190 95,293 175,948 69,718 147,434 100,452 186,193 74,877 157,678 105,611 196,437 80,035 167,922 110,769 206,681 85,194 178,166
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Discussion of Assumptions:
54,605 158,845 29,030 130,331 60,047 174,531 34,472 146,017 65,489 190,217 39,914 161,703 70,931 205,903 45,356 177,389 76,373 221,589 50,798 193,075 81,815 237,275 56,240 208,761 87,257 252,961 61,681 224,447 92,699 268,647 67,123 240,133 98,141 284,333 72,565 255,819 103,583 300,019 78,007 271,505 109,025 315,705 83,449 287,191
58,104 216,949 32,528 188,434 63,803 238,334 38,228 209,820 69,503 259,720 43,928 231,206 75,203 281,106 49,627 252,591 80,903 302,492 55,327 273,977 86,602 323,878 61,027 295,363 92,302 345,263 66,727 316,749 98,002 366,649 72,426 338,134 103,701 388,035 78,126 359,520 109,401 409,421 83,826 380,906 115,101 430,806 89,526 402,292
62,440 279,388 36,864 250,874 68,341 306,675 42,765 278,160 74,241 333,962 48,666 305,447 80,142 361,248 54,567 332,734 86,043 388,535 60,468 360,020 91,944 415,822 66,369 387,307 97,845 443,108 72,269 414,594 103,746 470,395 78,170 441,880 109,647 497,681 84,071 469,167 115,547 524,968 89,972 496,453 121,448 552,255 95,873 523,740
Ice Point Solutions
Comparable Companies
LTM Revenue
LTM Earnings
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Comparable Companies Revenue CAGR EBIT MarginEBITDA Margin 2000-2006
Net Income Margin
EBIT Multiple
EBITDA Multiple
P/E Multiple
B/V Multiple
6.1%
2.7%
5.5x
3.9x
6.8x
0.9x
23.1%
13.4%
18.0x
16.9x
31.6x
6.0x
11.5%
4.9%
6.8x
5.1x
9.1x
1.6x
8.9%
5.0%
7.3x
5.5x
6.6x
0.7x
$2,545,058
$67,679
6.6%
4.4%
Marina Wilderness
$313,556
$41,923
17.8%
22.1%
General Shoe Corp
$1,322,392
$64,567
11.2%
8.8%
$552,594
$27,568
4.6%
6.9%
Victory Athletic
$15,403,547
$1,433,760
7.9%
14.1%
16.0%
9.3%
22.1x
19.2x
27.1x
6.0x
Surfside Footwear
$1,241,529
$73,124
10.1%
9.3%
10.8%
5.9%
7.4x
6.3x
8.6x
1.4x
Alpine Company
$1,614,648
$112,015
6.2%
6.9%
9.0x
7.6x
10.4x
2.0x
Heartland Outdoor Footwear
$1,176,144
$86,156
8.5%
10.8%
12.6%
7.3%
12.0x
10.1x
18.6x
3.1x
$516,182
$79,170
14.4%
19.9%
20.2%
15.3%
6.2x
6.0x
5.5x
1.2x
$2,742,850
$220,662
9.7%
11.9%
13.5%
7.9%
10.5x
9.0x
13.8x
2.5x
Average
• • • •
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Operating Metrics (Post-Merger)
12.2%
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Templeton Athletic
10.4%
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Kinsley Coulter Products
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D&B Shoe Company
Revenue CAGR- 3.1% EBITDA Margin – 22.2% EBIT Margin– 20.0% Net Income Margin- 10.3%
Ice Point Solutions
an ag em en t
Upside/Downside Considerations Upside
• Discount shoe market expands as expected
Larger size allows for inherently more efficient and cheaper production
•
Ability to source more suppliers and shippers without suffering effects of high costs/lack of efficiency results in a more resilient supply chain
•
Inventory management expected to improve for Mercury line of products
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•
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Downside
• Discount shoe market stagnates, limiting avenues for further growth of AGI
Diversity in products presents managerial challenge for firms with traditionally limited product classes
•
Mercury’s product line has inherently more exposure to the boom-bust cycle of fashion trends, requiring rapid and often bold transitions between product lines
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•
• This directly challenges AGI’s desired production cost-saving measure of promising suppliers longer production runs in addition to conflicting with historic managerial ethos
Ice Point Solutions
Investment Recommendation
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Financing
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We assume a premium of 10% for the purchasing price of Mercury. However, high expected free cash flows allows Mercury to participate in a bidding war if necessary, potentially paying a premium of 30%
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Due to the high on-hand cash requirements of AGI, we believe that we will be unable to use any cash in the acquisition of Mercury
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Given healthy margins, we can assume that AGI has access to reasonably priced credit. With a 20Y and 30Y T-Bond yielding 4.73% and 4.93% respectively, we believe that the given cost of debt, 6%, is a reasonable coupon for a 15-year bond Ice Point Solutions
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Thank You Questions?
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Calculation of Beta
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Appendixes: Calculation of WACC WACC
Net Debt
Debt/Equity
Equity Beta (Levered)
Beta Equity/(Equit (Unlevered) y&Debt)
D&B Shoe Company
$420,098
$125,442
0.299
2.68
2.272
Marina Wilderness
$1,205,795
($91,559)
-0.076
1.94
2.033
General Shoe Corp Kinsley Coulter Products
$533,463
$171,835
0.322
1.92
1.609
$165,560
$82,236
0.497
1.12
0.863
Victory Athletic
$35,303,250
$7,653,207
0.217
0.97
0.858
Surfside Footwear
$570,684
$195,540
0.343
2.13
1.766
Alpine Company Heartland Outdoor Footwear
$1,056,033
$300,550
0.285
1.27
$1,454,875
($97,018)
-0.067
1.01
Templeton Athletic
$397,709
$169,579
0.426
0.98
Average
$4,567,496
$945,535
0.249
1.56
Asset Beta
0.770
2.064
1.082
2.099
0.756
1.452
0.668
0.748
0.822
0.797
0.745
1.586
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Equity Market Value
0.778
0.989
1.052
1.071
1.082
0.781
0.701
0.687
1.369
0.82
1.28
1.533024917
Risk Free Rate
4.73%
Risk Premium
4.9700%
Cost of Equity
12.35%
E/V
0.8
Cost of Debt
6%
D/V
0.2
1 - tax rate
0.6
WACC
10.60%
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1.085
Mercury Relevered Beta
Ice Point Solutions
Appendixes: Active Gear Working Model
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Active Gear Income Statement Income Statement Projections 2004 450,174 1.70%
2005 469,704 4.34%
2006 470,286 0.12%
2007E 479,927 2.05%
2008E 489,765 2.05%
2009E 499,806 2.05%
2010E 510,052 2.05%
2011E 520,508 2.05%
COGS
223,617
231,583
234,494
238,107
242,988
247,969
253,053
258,240
49.7%
49.3%
49.9%
49.61%
49.61%
49.61%
49.61%
49.61%
226,557
238,121
235,792
241,820
246,777
251,836
256,999
262,267
50.3%
50.7%
50.1%
50.4%
50.4%
50.4%
50.4%
50.4%
159,142
164,180
167,006
169,281
172,751
176,293
179,907
183,595
35.35%
34.95%
35.51%
35.27%
35.27%
35.27%
35.27%
35.27%
% Revenue
Gross Profit Margin
Total SGA Expenses % Revenues
73,942
68,786
72,539
15.0%
15.7%
14.6%
15.1%
D&A
7,049
7,343
8,366
7,871
1.6%
1.6%
1.8%
1.64%
% of revenues
Total Operating Expenses EBIT
74,026
75,544
77,092
78,673
15.1%
15.1%
15.1%
15.1%
8,032
8,197
8,365
8,536
1.64%
1.64%
1.64%
1.64%
415259 64,668
423771 65,994
432459 67,347
441324 68,727
450371 70,136
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
5122
5122
5122
5122
5122
59,546 12.4% 23818.47805
60,872 12.4% 24348.75725
62,225 12.4% 24889.90717
63,605 12.5% 25442.15067
65,014 12.5% 26005.71516
se
67,415
Margin
As
EBITDA
tM
Revenue % Growth
66,599
60,420
13.4%
14.2%
12.8%
Total Other expenses
6303
4391
5122
54,064 12.0% 19192
62,208 13.2% 21089
55,298 11.8% 19349
35.5%
33.9%
35.0%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
34,872
41,120
35,949
35,728
36,523
37,335
38,163
39,009
7.7%
8.8%
7.6%
7.44%
7.46%
7.47%
7.48%
7.49%
CapEx
8361
12046
12293
12545
12802
13065
13332
% of revenues
1.78%
2.56%
2.56%
2.56%
2.56%
2.56%
2.56%
Tax Rate
Net Income % Revenue
ui
Br
EBT Margin Less: Taxes
n
60,366
Margin
Assumptions
Revenue Growth - Historical Mean Constant COGS Margins (mean) Constant SGA Expense Margins Constant EBITDA Margins Constant D&A as percentage of revenues Other Expenses – LTM 40% Tax Rate
Ice Point Solutions
Appendixes: Active Gear Working Model – Balance Sheets Assumptions
AGI Balance Sheet 2005
2006
2007E
Assets Cash & Cash Equivalents
92,735
63,949
54,509
Accounts Receivable
46,507
50,649
61,322
Inventory
38,493
50,140
56,030
Prepaid Expenses
8,298
10,051
12,223
Deferred Taxes
8,681
8,080
6,519
Derivative Assets Total Current Assets
1,813
53
184,682
190,655
24,712
28,392
6,414
12,273
14,360
Goodwill
4,249
11,851
Other Assets
2,982
3,079
Total Assets
232,053
236,596
15,711
Accrued Expenses
37,211
Taxes Payable
10,421
Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Deferred Compensation Deferred Taxes Total Owner's Equity Total Liabilities and Owner's Equity
54,637
55,757
56,900
58,067
59,257
49,816
50,837
51,879
52,943
54,028
10,530
10,746
10,966
11,191
11,420
8,054
8,220
8,388
8,560
8,735
636
649
662
675
689
196,950
200,987
205,107
209,312
213,603
32,814
37,327
41,932
46,632
51,428
14,360
14,360
14,360
14,360
14,360
11,915
11,915
11,915
11,915
11,915
3,249
3,249
3,249
3,249
3,249
248,571
259,288
267,838
276,564
285,468
294,555
Cash & Cash Equivalents Accounts Receivable
% of Total Revenues (Historical Mean) % of Total Revenues (Historical Mean) % of Total Revenues Inventory (Historical Mean) % of Total Revenues Prepaid Expenses (Historical Mean) % of Total Revenues Deferred Taxes (Historical Mean) % of Total Revenues Derivative Assets (Historical Mean) PPE current = PPE previous year + PPE CapEx - Depreciation Intangible Assets
LTM
Goodwill
LTM
Other Assets
LTM
29,188
33,009
26,753
27,301
27,861
28,432
29,015
30,533
36,718
36,113
36,853
37,609
38,380
13,263
10,162
11,677
11,917
12,161
12,410
39,166 Accounts Payable Expenses (Historical Mean) 12,665
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,514
0
878
1,903
1,942
1,982
2,022
2,064
67,858
73,004
80,767
76,446
78,013
79,612
81,244
82,910
ui
Other
79,473
3,249
Br
Derivative Liabilities
77,877
11,915
n
Accounts Payable
2011E
76,312
se
Liabilities & Owners Equity
2010E
74,779
tM
23,694
Intangible Assets
2009E
73,277
As
PPE
0 194,714
2008E
an ag em en t
2004
% of Operating
Accrued Expenses Taxes Payable
% of Operating Expenses (Historical Mean) % of Operating Expenses (Historical Mean)
178,173
150,240
140,047
140,047
140,047
140,047
140,047
140,047
3,763
4,814
3,919
3,919
3,919
3,919
3,919
3,919
Long Term Debt
LTM
2,180
323
0
0
0
0
0
0
Deferred Compensation
LTM
-19,921
8,216
23,837
38,876
45,859
52,986
60,258
67,679
Deferred Taxes
LTM
232,053
236,596
248,571
259,288
267,838
276,564
285,468
294,555
Ice Point Solutions
Appendixes: Merger Analysis
Total Allocable Purchase Premium Less: Write-Up of PP&E
Less: Write-Up of Intangibles Less: Write-Down of DTL Plus: New Deferred Tax Liability Total Goodwill Created
43,051 202,645 1,631
20,264 11,654
8,758 177,853
2010E
2011E 1,080,371 538,212 949,957 19,771 150,184 19,771 130,413 5,122 125,291 50,117 75,175
1,118,225 557,099 983,476 20,490 155,239 20,490 134,748 5,122 129,626 51,851 77,776
an ag em en t
1,031,943 514,038 906,991 18,840 143,792 18,840 124,952 5,122 119,830 47,932 71,898
se
Fixed Asset Write-Up PP&E Write-Up % PP&E Write-Up Amount Depreciation Period (Years):
ui
Plus: Write-Off of Existing Goodwill
373,661 214,067
Br
Goodwill Calculation: Equity Purchase Price Less: Seller Book Value
2009E 978,793 487,502 859,763 17,813 136,843 17,813 119,030 5,122 113,908 45,563 68,345
As
Goodwill Creation & Balance Sheet Adjustments
2008E
tM
2007E 959,256 477,771 847,583 17,458 129,131 17,458 111,673 5,122 106,551 42,620 63,931
n
Income Statement Consolidated Revenues COGS Less: Operating Expenses Add: Depreciation and Amortization EBITDA Less: Depreciation and Amortization Total Operating Income(EBIT) Less: Other Expenses Earnings Before Tax Less Taxes (40%): Net Income
5.00% 1630.9 5
Intangible Asset Write-Up: Purchase Price to Allocate:
202645
% Allocated to Intangibles: Intangibles Write-Up Amount:
10% 20264
Amortization Period (Years):
5
Ice Point Solutions