Bcc monthly economic briefing september 2015

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Monthly Economic Review September 2015 (Based on August 2015 data releases)

Monthly headlines:  UK economic growth in Q2 unrevised, as the trade deficit narrows and investment rises.  UK unemployment rises again, but earnings continue to outstrip inflation.  US growth is revised up sharply, but China weighing heavily on the global outlook. .UK GDP growth in Q2 unrevised at 0.7%...

06/09/2015

104

Q1=2008

102 100 98 96 94

Real GDP GDP per head

Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015

92

Source: ONS Second GDP estimate, Q2 2015

Chart 2: UK Trade Balance 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18

2015 Q2

2014 Q4

2014 Q2

2013 Q4

2013 Q2

2012 Q4

2012 Q2

2011 Q4

2011 Q2

2010 Q4

2010 Q2

2009 Q4

2009 Q2

2008 Q4

2008 Q2

2007 Q4

2007 Q2

2006 Q4

2006 Q2

2005 Q4

2005 Q2

-20

Source: ONS Second GDP estimate, Q2 2015

Chart 3: Changes in UK Job Vacancies 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Apr-Jun 2001 Oct-Dec 2001 Apr-Jun 2002 Oct-Dec 2002 Apr-Jun 2003 Oct-Dec 2003 Apr-Jun 2004 Oct-Dec 2004 Apr-Jun 2005 Oct-Dec 2005 Apr-Jun 2006 Oct-Dec 2006 Apr-Jun 2007 Oct-Dec 2007 Apr-Jun2008 Oct-Dec 2008 Apr-Jun 2009 Oct-Dec 2009 Apr-Jun 2010 Oct-Dec 2010 Apr-Jun 2011 Oct-Dec 2011 Apr-Jun 2012 Oct-Dec 2012 Apr-Jun 2013 Oct-Dec 2013 Apr-Jun 2014 Oct-Dec 2014 Apr-Jun 2015

...and while the UK jobs market weakens... In the three months to July 2015, UK unemployment rose by 25,000 compared with the previous three months. The number of people in employment fell by 63,000 over the same period. There were 735,000 job vacancies in the three months to July 2015, the second highest number since records began in 2001 (see Chart 3). This mirrors the Q2 2015 Quarter Economic Survey where recruitment difficulties in the manufacturing sector reached a record high. However, despite this, the UK’s labour market remains a source of strength for the UK economy.

106

Billions £

...with growth better balanced in the quarter... The UK's trade deficit narrowed from £13.4 billion in Q1 2015 to £9.1 billion in Q2 2015, the lowest deficit since Q2 2013 (see Chart 2). This was driven by a 3.9% rise in exports in Q2, almost seven times the 0.6% increase in imports over the same period. As a consequence, trade boosted GDP by one percentage point in Q2, its biggest contribution since Q4 2011 and is in marked contrast to the previous quarter when net trade was a drag on growth. Business investment rose by 2.9% compared with the Q1 2015, the biggest rise since Q2 2014.

Chart 1: UK Real GDP vs GDP per head

000's

The second official estimate for Q2 2015 growth in UK GDP was unrevised at 0.7%, compared to the 0.4% rise recorded in Q1. In annual terms, the UK economy grew by 2.6% in Q2, unrevised from the previous estimate. UK economic output is now over 5% above its Q1 2008 pre-recession peak. However, GDP per head, a key indicator of living standards, remains just below its pre-recession peak, despite rising by 0.5% in Q2 2015 (see Chart 1). Overall, the latest GDP figures mirror our view that the UK economy is expanding at a solid rate.

BCC Monthly Economic Review – for information visit: www.economicsurvey.org.uk

Source: ONS Retail Sales, December 2013 Source: ONS UK Labour Market Indices, July 2015

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Bcc monthly economic briefing september 2015 by Kirsty Arnold - Issuu