Financial Projections for a business plan

Page 1

Example Manufacturing Plant Financial Model Dashboard Bplans Africa Business Plan 2/4/19


Capital Requirement and Funding Sources of Funds

Sources of Funds

in ZAR '000

in %

1. Equity

6 000

22,8%

Share Capital

6 000

22,8%

2. Debt

20 343

77,2%

Debt: IDC

16 993

64,5%

Debt: Name Debt 2

-

-

Debt: Name Debt 3

-

-

Debt: Name Debt 4

-

-

Overdraft Facility

3 350

12,7%

Total Funding

26 343

100,0%

3 350 13%

Share Capital

thereof debt

Overdraft Facility

22,8%

26 343

100,0%

20 343

77,2%

6 000

22,8%

thereof equity Gearing (debt equity ratio)

Debt: IDC

16 993 64%

Funding Structure Total Funding Requirement (ZAR '000)

6 000 23%

Debt

3,4 :1

Equity

77,2%

Sources and Uses during first 12 months 12 months commencing in Mar 2020

SOURCES Cash collected from sales (incl. VAT)

in ZAR '000

in %

Bar Chart

USES

29 754

54,1%

Advances received

-

-

Cost of Materials/Goods (incl. VAT)

Other operating & extraordinary income

-

-

Other Direct Costs (incl. VAT)

Interest received on cash deposits

16

Revenue share

0,0%

Overheads (incl. VAT)

in ZAR '000 -

39,8%

310

0,6%

8 272

15,0%

2 016

3,7%

Direct labour costs (w/o social insurance+income tax)

-

Share Capital

6 000

10,9%

Social insurance & income tax (Payroll withholdings)

271

Extraordinary expenses

16 993

30,9%

Debt: Name Debt 2

-

-

Capital Expenditure (incl. VAT)

Debt: Name Debt 3

-

-

Advance payments & utilisation of accruals

Debt: Name Debt 4

-

-

Interest + Financing Costs

Overdraft Facility

217

Total Sources

54 996

0,4%

100,0%

Bar Chart

21 907

VAT recovered from tax authority Debt: IDC

in %

0,5%

-

-

21 758

39,6%

-

-

1 305

2,4%

Principal payments

976

1,8%

VAT paid to tax authority

-

Taxes on profit paid

-

Liquidity/cash reserve

197

Dividend payout

-

Total Uses

54 996

0,4% 100,0%


Operational Summary (last month in fiscal year: Feb) Key Operational

1

1

1

1

1

FY 2020

FY 2021

FY 2022

FY 2023

FY 2024

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Maximum Plant Production Capacity

watt

8 289 750

16 800 000

23 719 500

24 318 000

24 948 000

Actual Total Production Capacity

watt

7 460 775

15 120 000

22 533 525

23 102 100

23 700 600

Actual Production in % of Maximum

%

90,0%

90,0%

95,0%

95,0%

95,0%

Total Sales (all modules)

ZAR '000

32 609

62 748

93 514

95 874

98 357

Unit Costs (Ø costs per watt produced/sold)

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3 2,94

Year 4

Cost of Materials/Modules

ZAR per watt

3,10

Direct labour

ZAR per watt

-

Other direct costs

ZAR per watt

0,04

0,09

0,06

0,06

0,06

Operating Expenses (Overheads)

ZAR per watt

1,15

0,84

0,79

0,79

0,79

Average Revenue (Modules)

ZAR per watt

4,37

4,15

4,15

4,15

4,15

Gross profit

ZAR per watt

1,23

1,12

1,31

1,49

1,65

Operating profit

ZAR per watt

(0,39)

0,02

0,33

0,50

0,67

Net Profit after Tax (NPAT)

ZAR per watt

(0,56)

(0,09)

0,27

0,34

0,48

-

2,77

Year 5

-

2,60 -

2,44 -


Profit and Loss Statement (all currency in ZAR '000)

FY 2020

in %

FY 2021

in %

FY 2022

in %

FY 2023

in %

FY 2024

in %

(last month in fiscal year: Feb) Turnover

32 609

100,0%

62 748

100,0%

93 514

100,0%

95 874

100,0%

98 357

100,0%

Cost of Sales

23 461

71,9%

45 763

72,9%

63 907

68,3%

61 535

64,2%

59 304

60,3%

Gross Profit

9 148

28,1%

16 985

27,1%

29 607

31,7%

34 339

35,8%

39 053

39,7%

Operating Expenses (Overheads)

8 573

26,3%

12 702

20,2%

17 722

19,0%

18 319

19,1%

18 813

19,1%

Trading Profit

575

1,8%

4 284

6,8%

11 885

12,7%

16 019

16,7%

20 240

20,6%

Other operating income

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Bad debts

489

1,5%

1 403

1,5%

1 438

1,5%

1 475

1,5%

Extraordinary result

-

Earnings before Interest and Tax (EBIT) Interest Earnings before Tax (EBT) Taxes on Profit Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) cumulated

941

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

0,3%

3 343

5,3%

10 482

11,2%

14 581

15,2%

18 765

19,1%

2 988

9,2%

2 988

4,8%

2 988

3,2%

2 988

3,1%

2 988

3,0%

(2 902)

(8,9%)

355

0,6%

7 494

8,0%

11 593

12,1%

15 777

16,0%

EBITDA Depreciation & Amortisation

1,5%

85

1 289

4,0%

1 718

2,7%

1 292

1,4%

660

0,7%

57

0,1%

(4 191)

(12,9%)

(1 363)

(2,2%)

6 202

6,6%

10 933

11,4%

15 720

16,0%

181

0,2%

3 061

3,2%

4 402

4,5%

6 021

6,4%

7 872

8,2%

11 318

11,5%

-

-

-

-

(4 191)

(12,9%)

(1 363)

(2,2%)

(4 191)

(5 554)

466

8 338

19 656


Sales, Cost of Sales and Gross Profit Contribution by Product/Service 1. Sales by Product/Service

(all currency in ZAR '000)

120 000

100 000

80 000

60 000

40 000

20 000

0

FY 2020

FY 2021

FY 2022

FY 2023

FY 2024

Product A

9 305

17 501

26 083

26 741

27 433

Product B

15 807

31 147

46 419

47 590

48 823

Product C

7 497

14 099

21 013

21 543

22 101

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sales

(in ZAR '000)

FY 2020

in %

FY 2021

in %

FY 2022

in %

FY 2023

in %

FY 2024

in %

Product/Service Product A

9 305

28,5%

17 501

27,9%

26 083

27,9%

26 741

27,9%

27 433

27,9%

Product B

15 807

48,5%

31 147

49,6%

46 419

49,6%

47 590

49,6%

48 823

49,6%

Product C

7 497

23,0%

14 099

22,5%

21 013

22,5%

21 543

22,5%

22 101

22,5%

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total

32 609

100,0%

62 748

100,0%

93 514

100,0%

95 874

100,0%

98 357

100,0%


2. Cost of Sales by Product/Service

(all currency in ZAR '000)

70 000

60 000

50 000

40 000 Product A

Product B

Product C

30 000

20 000

10 000

0 FY 2020

Cost of Sales

(in ZAR '000)

FY 2021

FY 2022

FY 2020

in %

FY 2023

FY 2021

in %

FY 2024

FY 2022

in %

FY 2023

in %

FY 2024

in %

Product/Service Product A

6 169

26,3%

11 910

26,0%

16 532

25,9%

15 852

25,8%

15 262

25,7%

Product B

11 565

49,3%

22 686

49,6%

31 773

49,7%

30 716

49,9%

29 625

50,0%

Product C

5 727

24,4%

11 167

24,4%

15 602

24,4%

14 968

24,3%

14 418

24,3%

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total

23 461

100,0%

45 763

100,0%

63 907

100,0%

61 535

100,0%

59 304

100,0%

-

-


3. Gross Profit Contribution by Product/Service

(all currency in ZAR '000)

45 000 40 000

35 000 30 000 25 000

Product A

Product B

Product C

20 000 15 000

10 000 5 000

0 FY 2020

Gross Profit Contribution

(in ZAR '000)

FY 2021

FY 2022

FY 2020

in %

FY 2023

FY 2021

in %

FY 2024

FY 2022

in %

FY 2023

in %

FY 2024

in %

Product/Service Product A

3 136

34,3%

5 591

32,9%

9 550

32,3%

10 889

31,7%

12 171

31,2%

Product B

4 241

46,4%

8 461

49,8%

14 646

49,5%

16 874

49,1%

19 198

49,2%

Product C

1 771

19,4%

2 933

17,3%

5 410

18,3%

6 575

19,1%

7 683

19,7%

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Total

9 148

100,0%

16 985

100,0%

29 607

100,0%

34 339

100,0%

39 053

100,0%

-

-


Turnover, Gross Profit and Net Profit

(in ZAR '000)

120 000

100 000

98 357

95 874

93 514

80 000 62 748 60 000

40 000

32 609

39 053

34 339

29 607 16 985

20 000 9 148

11 318

7 872

6 021

0 FY 2020

FY 2021

(4 191)

FY 2022

(1 363)

FY 2023

FY 2024

-20 000

Turnover

Gross Profit

Company Headcount and Cost of Payroll Headcount Total no of Employees (end of FY on FTE basis) Change (year to year)

FY 2020

FY 2021

FY 2022

FY 2023

FY 2024

27

44

59

62

62

27

17

15

3

Net Profit after Tax (NPAT)

Headcount by Division

70 60 50 40

Total Cost of payroll

30

incl. salaries & wages, benefits and other staff costs (in ZAR '000) FY 2020 Division Direct Labour Staff Management Administration

1

FY 2021 2

FY 2022 3

FY 2023 4

FY 2024

20

5

-

-

-

-

-

1 696

3 953

4 002

4 106

4 197

671

815

1 070

1 124

1 170

Salesforce

3 363

3 899

5 653

5 683

5 762

Production

2 843

4 035

6 997

7 406

7 684

Total costs of payroll

8 573

12 702

17 722

18 319

18 813

10 0

Production Salesforce Administration Management Direct Labour Staff

FY 2020 14 4 6 3 -

FY 2021 27 5 8 4 -

FY 2022 37 7 11 4 -

FY 2023 40 7 11 4 -

FY 2024 40 7 11 4 -


Indirect Cash Flow (as derived from NPAT) (all currency in ZAR '000)

Cash balance during the first 12 months

1 FY 2020

1 FY 2021

1 FY 2022

1 FY 2023

1 FY 2024

(in ZAR '000)

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

2 000

(commencing in Mar 2020)

(last month in fiscal year: Feb) 1. Cash flow from operating activities Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) Depreciation & Amortisation Change in working capital Change in trade debtors Change in trade creditors

(4 191,3)

(1 363,0)

6 020,6

7 871,7

11 318,4

2 988,0

2 988,0

2 988,0

2 988,0

2 988,0

(1 121,7)

(752,7)

(315,7)

(234,4)

(121,6)

(2 366,0)

(1 255,5)

(292,9)

(122,3)

1 724,7

757,6

36,7

(87,2)

(121,6)

Change in sundry creditors

-

-

-

-

-

Change in advances received

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Change in advance payments Change in inventory / stock Change in accruals Change in PAYE owed

(480,4) 30,4

(254,9) 13,1

Change in income tax liabilities

-

-

Change in VAT liabilities

-

-

Net cash flow from operating activities

(2 294,7)

885,4

(59,5) -

(24,8)

-

14,6

4,1

-

181,3

2 879,9

8 888,9

13 509,3

0

-

-

-

1 000

-1 000

1 340,4 -

-2 000

15 525,1

2. Cash flow from investing activities Capex on intangible assets Capex on tangible assets Capex on financial assets Net cash flow from investing activities

(1 500,0)

-

-

-

-

(12 870,0)

-

-

-

-

(5 372,0)

-

-

-

-

(19 742,0)

-

-

-

-

6 000,0

-

-

-

-

16 233,6

-

-

-

-3 000

-4 000

3. Cash flow from financing activities Cash receipts from new share capital Drawdowns on loans Principal repayments on loans Dividend payments Net cash flow from financing activities Net increase/decrease in cash

-

-

(5 714,8) -

(3 936,4) -

-

-5 000

(4 345,1) -

22 233,6

(1 082,3)

(5 714,8)

(3 936,4)

(4 345,1)

Cash Balance (end of month)

196,9

(196,9)

3 174,1

9 572,8

11 180,0

Overdraft Facility (end of month)

3 174,1

12 747,0

Maximum Overdraft (limit)

12 747,0

23 927,0

Cash at the beginning of the period Cash at the end of the period

(1 082,3)

196,9 196,9

-

3 174,1


Projected Cash Flow by Year

all currency in ZAR '000

30 000

25 000

20 000

15 000

Net Cash Flow 11 180 9 573

10 000

5 000

Cash Balance (End-of-Year)

3 174 197

0 ( 197)

-5 000 FY 2020

FY 2021

FY 2022

FY 2023

FY 2024

Balance Sheet all currency in ZAR '000 as per end of Feb

Assets Non-Current Assets Property Machinery Others Current Assets Stocks Changes in advance payments Trade debtors VAT owed to company

FY 2020

FY 2021

16 754

FY 2022

13 766

FY 2023

10 778

Liabilities & Shareholders Equity

FY 2024

7 790

4 802

FY 2020

FY 2022

FY 2023

FY 2024

Current Liabilities

1 755

4 674

2 759

5 555

6 774

Trade & Sundry Creditors

1 725

2 482

2 519

2 432

2 310

1 425

1 350

1 275

1 200

1 125

Overdraft facility

-

11 031

9 193

7 354

5 516

3 677

Accruals

-

4 298

3 223

2 149

1 074

VAT Taxes on Profit

-

FY 2021

2 149

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

181

3 061

4 402

-

3 043

4 357

7 883

17 603

28 783

Other current liabilities

30

43

58

62

62

480

735

795

820

820

Long-term Liabilities

16 234

13 003

9 437

5 500

1 155

-

-

-

Shareholders Equity

1 809

446

6 466

14 338

25 656

Share Capital

6 000

6 000

6 000

6 000

6 000

2 366

3 621

-

-

Cash at bank

197

-

Total Assets

19 797

18 123

3 914 -

4 037 -

4 037 -

3 174

12 747

23 927

Retained Earnings

(4 191)

(5 554)

466

8 338

19 656

18 661

25 393

33 586

Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity

19 797

18 123

18 661

25 393

33 586


Ratios / Key Performance Indicators

Abbreviations FY 2020

FY 2021

FY 2022

FY 2023

FY 2024

Liquidity & Coverage

Calculation

As

-

Assets

Current Ratio

Cur As / Cur Liab

173,4%

93,2%

285,8%

316,9%

424,9%

Cur

-

Current

Quick Ratio

(Cur As - Invent) / Cur Liab

146,0%

77,5%

257,0%

302,1%

412,8%

Deb

-

Debt

Equity Ratio

Total Eq / Total As

10,1%

2,5%

53,0%

129,7%

323,6%

Depr

-

Depreciation & Amortisation

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

Tot Deb / Tot Eq

9,9x

39,7x

1,9x

0,8x

0,3x

Eq

-

(Shareholders) Equity

Asset Intensity

FixAs / Tot As

62,9%

58,2%

46,2%

26,4%

14,3%

Fix

-

Fixed

Equity-to-Fixed-Asset Ratio (Type I)

Tot Eq / FixAs

14,5%

4,2%

74,9%

213,5%

534,3%

FixAs

-

Fixed Assets (Intangibles & Tangibles)

Equity-to-Fixed-Asset Ratio (Type II)

(Tot Eq + longt Liab) / FixAs

144,8%

127,6%

184,3%

295,4%

558,3%

FTE

-

Full Time Equivalent

GrProf

-

Gross Profit

Liab

-

Liabilities

Income / Profitability Gross profit margin

GrProf / Sales

28,1%

27,1%

31,7%

35,8%

39,7%

longt

-

EBITDA margin

long-term

EBITDA / Sales

0,3%

5,3%

11,2%

15,2%

19,1%

Net Inc

-

Net Income (EBIT)

Operating profit as % of revenue

OpProf / Sales

1,8%

6,8%

12,7%

16,7%

20,6%

NPAT

-

Net Profit after Tax

Return on revenue

NPAT / Sales

(12,9%)

(2,2%)

6,4%

8,2%

11,5%

OpProf

-

Operating (Trading) Profit

Return on Assets

Net Inc / Tot As

(14,7%)

2,0%

40,2%

45,7%

47,0%

Tot

-

Total

Return on Equity (ROE)

Net Inc / Eq

(160,5%)

79,6%

115,9%

80,9%

61,5%

1 208

Miscellaneous Revenue per Employee (in ZAR '000)

Sales / FTEs

1 426

1 585

1 546

1 586

EBIT per Employee (in ZAR '000)

Net Inc / FTEs

(107)

8

127

187

254

Net Profit per Employee (in ZAR '000)

NPAT / FTEs

(155)

(31)

102

127

183


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